207 Creekside Dr · Lake of the Woods, VA 22508

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1973 0.35 ac lot Est $289k · at est. $191/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR ALERT! RENTAL HOUSE FOR SALE. 3BR, 2BA, LARGE LOT, STORAGE SHED. EXISTING TENANT PAYS 1060/MO, LEASED UNTIL 12-10-06.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Incredible amenities
• Peaceful setting

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• LAKE ACCESS
• INCREDIBLE AMENITIES
• WALKING TRAILS
• 24 HOUR GATED SECURITY
• PEACEFUL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association fee $2,295 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Detached home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Community pool; Property located outside city limits

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($281/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $247k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Lake of the Woods — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#341 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Locust Grove Elementary (math 51% / reading 64%, grade C+, #588 of 1,108 statewide, top 54%, 520 students, 70% FRL); Locust Grove Middle (math 42% / reading 66%, grade B-, #205 of 342 statewide, top 61%, 693 students, 69% FRL); Orange County High (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,476 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 34% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 197 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,571 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,834
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3805 Lakeview Pkwy	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,098 (+4%)	22mo	$270,000	$246	62
100 Creekside Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+9%)	23mo	$314,500	$273	54
106 Monroe St	0.68mi	3/1.0	992 (-6%)	3mo	$275,000	$277	51
116 Monroe St	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,026 (-3%)	12mo	$245,000	$239	48
500 Birdie Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	912 (-14%)	19mo	$299,900	$329	30
210 Green St	0.65mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,208 (+14%)	20mo	$260,000	$215	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-44,682
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-36,949
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22508

• Home prices YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,442/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$191
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,436

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $185	-5% $104	+0% $23	+5% $-57	+10% $-138
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-74	+0% $23	+5% $121	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $167	-0.5pp $96	base $23	+0.5pp $-50	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Mason St Locust Grove, VA	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,200	$1.58	45d	1	0.93mi
413 Westover Pkwy Locust Grove, VA	2.0	1.0	867	$2,050	$2.36	14d	1	1.22mi
1006 Lakeview Pkwy Locust Grove, VA	3.0	2.0	1222	$2,200	$1.80	45d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $191 · $2,292/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $285,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $293,999 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $293,999 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $293,999 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $293,999 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $293,999 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $293,999 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $299,000 Active
16. 2006-03-06
    soldstatus $210,000
17. 2006-03-03
    soldstatus $210,000 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    INVESTOR ALERT! RENTAL HOUSE FOR SALE. 3BR, 2BA, LARGE LOT, STORAGE SHED. EXISTING TENANT PAYS 1060/MO, LEASED UNTIL 12-10-06.

18. 2006-02-04
    historical 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    INVESTOR ALERT! RENTAL HOUSE FOR SALE. 3BR, 2BA, LARGE LOT, STORAGE SHED. EXISTING TENANT PAYS 1060/MO, LEASED UNTIL 12-10-06.

19. 2005-09-19
    listed $215,000 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    INVESTOR ALERT! RENTAL HOUSE FOR SALE. 3BR, 2BA, LARGE LOT, STORAGE SHED. EXISTING TENANT PAYS 1060/MO, LEASED UNTIL 12-10-06.

20. 2004-06-15
    soldstatus $134,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,442 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,337 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$895/yr (+$75/mo · 62.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,442
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,367
• − Management: −$2,367
• − HOA: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$4,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,094
• After-tax cash flow: $1,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $61,086
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #2147
• State rank: #71 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lake of the Woods

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #341
• US rank: #13456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake of the Woods, VA
• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 15,557
• Household income: $111,357
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,758 people
• By 2030: 40,411 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 43,477 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 45,856 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 51,067 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 51,387 · +32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.2% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+14.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.88%
• Current HPI: 401.2932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+123.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-03 Sold (MLS) $210,000 MRIS
• 2006-02-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-09-19 Listed $215,000 MRIS
• 2004-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $134,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,442 · +42.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.