4251 Cedarwood St · Jan Phyl Village, FL 33880

$106,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 816 sqft · Manufactured public records · 191 Days on market

Built 1982 3,681 sqft lot $163/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Lots of Improvements" This home has it all: Newer C/H/A newer roof, newer skirting, updated plumbing! This home shows pride of ownership!!!! And is sitting in a resident owned 55 plus, five star, gated community! Maintenance is only 77.00 a month! At Oakwood estates you can be as busy or as laid back as you wish! Call today this home will sell quick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Key facts

• Shaded front porch
• Laundry behind lanai
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• ADDITIONAL LIVING SPACES
• VENTED LANAI
• SHADED FRONT PORCH
• UPDATED VANITY
• LAUNDRY BEHIND LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Private maintained paved road; Lot approximately 0.08 acres
• Financial info: Total annual fees $1,957.32; Total monthly fees $163.11
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee $163.11); HOA covers trash and water; Community clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, shuffleboard court; Gated community with deed restrictions; Buyer approval required; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats OK)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Facing south
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Fishing pier (water extras)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $106k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $106k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#769 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $733 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $106k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,280 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.19%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-215
• Equity at exit: $15,805

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $19,812
• Equity at exit: $9,165

Cash invested: $29,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33880

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,471 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$556
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,463/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $106,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,500
• Closing costs: $3,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
449 Red Hawk Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,581	$1.43	3d	1	0.81mi
3039 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,175	$1.36	3d	1	0.94mi
3074 St Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	860	$1,149	$1.34	14d	1	0.96mi
3060 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	762	$1,373	$1.80	23d	1	1.00mi
3062 Saint Paul Dr Jan Phyl Village, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,323	$1.20	3d	1	1.00mi
267 Lake Thomas Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,800	$1.74	23d	1	1.08mi
1059 Spirit Lake Rd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,378	$1.53	23d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $106,000 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $106,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $106,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $106,000 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $106,000 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $106,000 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $106,000 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $106,000 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $106,000 Active 180 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $106,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $106,000 Active 175 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $106,000 Active 174 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $106,000 Active 173 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $106,000
15. 2025-12-09
    listed $118,000 Active
16. 2016-04-19
    soldstatus $57,900 Sold 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    "Lots of Improvements" This home has it all: Newer C/H/A newer roof, newer skirting, updated plumbing! This home shows pride of ownership!!!! And is sitting in a resident owned 55 plus, five star, gated community! Maintenance is only 77.00 a month! At Oakwood estates you can be as busy or as laid back as you wish! Call today this home will sell quick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

17. 2016-02-29
    status Pending 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    "Lots of Improvements" This home has it all: Newer C/H/A newer roof, newer skirting, updated plumbing! This home shows pride of ownership!!!! And is sitting in a resident owned 55 plus, five star, gated community! Maintenance is only 77.00 a month! At Oakwood estates you can be as busy or as laid back as you wish! Call today this home will sell quick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

18. 2016-02-25
    listed $57,900 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    "Lots of Improvements" This home has it all: Newer C/H/A newer roof, newer skirting, updated plumbing! This home shows pride of ownership!!!! And is sitting in a resident owned 55 plus, five star, gated community! Maintenance is only 77.00 a month! At Oakwood estates you can be as busy or as laid back as you wish! Call today this home will sell quick!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,646
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,938
• − Property taxes: −$1,463
• − Insurance: −$530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,412
• − Management: −$1,412
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$3,084
• Taxable income: $1,852
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$445
• After-tax cash flow: $2,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jan Phyl Village

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #17294

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,371
• Household income: $56,390
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1412.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.41%
• Current HPI: 317.8788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+83.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $106,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listed $118,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-19 Sold (MLS) $57,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-02-25 Listed $57,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,463 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.