Rachael - X30R Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77471

$291,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,317 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Rachael plan is a two-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and 2 car garage. A covered front porch makes the first impression as you enter into a foyer area with storage closet. As you continue through the home it opens into the dining and kitchen area with an island and corner pantry. The spacious family room looks out onto the covered patio. The private primary retreat boasts and in suite bathroom with a stand up shower and walk-in closet. Upstairs features a game room, full bath and 3 secondary bedroom with walk-in closets.

Key facts

• Access to schools
• Amenity center
• Playground

Tags

• AMENITY CENTER
• PLAYGROUND
• ACCESS TO SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $309,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: 2,317 sq. ft. living area plan (Rachael - X30R); Located at 6727 Serenity Ridge Dr, Rosenberg TX 77471; New construction — Plan inventory type
• Exterior features: Living area of 2317

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: New construction single-family home (Plan: Rachael - X30R)

🏗️ New construction. The $291,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,954.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $292k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Beasley El (math 42% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 366 students, 86% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 43% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,040 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.63%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 15.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $417,954
• List price: $291,990
• Delta: -30.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-146,442
• Equity at exit: $62,318

10-year hold

• IRR: -88.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.10×
• Total profit: $-245,554
• Equity at exit: $36,137

Cash invested: $117,027 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77471

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,192
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,269/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-1,134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,656

Max offer price $253,823

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-845	-5% $-990	+0% $-1,134	+5% $-1,279	+10% $-1,423
Rent	-10% $-1,310	-5% $-1,222	+0% $-1,134	+5% $-1,047	+10% $-959
Rate	-1.0pp $-924	-0.5pp $-1,028	base $-1,134	+0.5pp $-1,243	+1.0pp $-1,353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,489
• Closing costs: $12,539
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $291,990 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $291,990 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $291,990 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $291,990 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $291,990 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $291,990 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $291,990 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $291,990 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $291,990 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 542-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $309,990 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $309,990 Active 290-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,412
• − Property taxes: −$6,269
• − Insurance: −$2,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,132
• − Management: −$2,132
• − Depreciation: −$12,159
• Taxable loss: −$21,548
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,172
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,325
• Household income: $73,186
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1688.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
• Current HPI: 309.5425
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B