1615 N John Miller Rd · Fayetteville, AR 72704

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 134 Days on market

Built 1955 0.59 ac lot $123/sqft · 46% below area Est $348k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this PRIVATE & cozy 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on the west side of Fayetteville; Minutes from the U of A, the entertainment district, and I-49. New windows, paint & fixtures make this house ready for you. Large private deck AND covered patio great for entertaining! New stove (slide-in) will be installed soon for seamless counter top / bar experience. Great for a starter home or investment rental.

Key facts

• Private deck
• New stove
• New paint

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• COVERED PATIO
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FIXTURES
• NEW STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $441 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.5% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#3 in AR, #871 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-.
• Farmington School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #34 of 238 in AR (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 539 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $189k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.00%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,157
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -45.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1654 & 1674 N Double Springs Rd	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (-6%)	4mo	$180,000	$124	80
1121 N Pershing St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,523 (-1%)	4mo	$315,000	$207	66
774 Double Springs Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-3%)	4mo	$282,500	$189	65
5838 W Mecklin St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+1%)	10mo	$340,000	$219	64
1520 Dawes St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+4%)	11mo	$349,000	$217	64
1272 N 59th Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,576 (+2%)	8mo	$225,000	$143	60
1426 N Pershing St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+4%)	12mo	$354,000	$221	59
1170 N Pershing St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,521 (-1%)	11mo	$335,000	$220	59
5821 W Fountain St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,645 (+7%)	2mo	$367,000	$223	59
5751 Reliance St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,482 (-4%)	11mo	$285,000	$192	55
6283 Abilene Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-9%)	1mo	$285,000	$203	55
5721 W Legacy St	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,719 (+12%)	5mo	$285,000	$166	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,250
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $25,551
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72704

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 539
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,954 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $396/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,396

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1521 N Dawes St Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,095	$1.31	13d	1	0.43mi
995 N Brook Dr Unit 995 Fayetteville, AR	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,325	$1.26	23d	1	0.61mi
6148 Milliken Bnd Unit 6148 Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,650	$1.10	13d	1	0.73mi
1219 N Pink Ter Unit 3 Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.5	1584	$1,525	$0.96	43d	1	0.74mi
1314 N Tradition Ave Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,670	$1.22	43d	1	0.81mi
1134 N Pink Ter Unit 2 Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.5	1584	$1,525	$0.96	43d	1	0.81mi
591 N Cresswell Dr Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,695	$1.25	13d	1	1.00mi
5810 W Cane Hill Dr Fayetteville, AR	4.0	3.0	2140	$2,500	$1.17	13d	1	1.08mi
999 N Crater Ave Unit 1 Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,695	$1.13	23d	1	1.17mi
987 N Crater Ave #1 Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,695	$1.13	13d	1	1.17mi
827 N Crater Ave Unit 1 Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,695	$1.13	23d	1	1.20mi
805 N Crater Ave Unit 1 Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,695	$1.13	23d	1	1.21mi
755 N Crater Ave Unit 1 Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,695	$1.13	23d	1	1.22mi
802 N Crater Ave Unit 1 Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,695	$1.13	23d	1	1.23mi
452 W Gosling ISLE Farmington, AR	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,100	$1.20	43d	1	1.45mi
464 W Gosling ISLE Farmington, AR	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,100	$1.28	43d	1	1.46mi
563 W Gosling Isle Farmington, AR	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,100	$1.28	43d	1	1.46mi
587 W Gosling Isle Farmington, AR	3.0	2.0	1641	$2,150	$1.31	43d	1	1.46mi
569 W Gosling Isle Farmington, AR	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,100	$1.28	43d	1	1.46mi
375 W Canada Dr Farmington, AR	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,170	$1.20	43d	1	1.48mi
495 W Gosling ISLE Farmington, AR	4.0	2.0	1940	$2,400	$1.24	43d	1	1.49mi
4747 W Mayflower Ct Fayetteville, AR	3.0	2.0	2012	$1,950	$0.97	14d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $189,000 Pending 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,000 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $189,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $189,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $189,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $189,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-04-28
    price $189,000 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Come see this PRIVATE & cozy 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on the west side of Fayetteville; Minutes from the U of A, the entertainment district, and I-49. New windows, paint & fixtures make this house ready for you. Large private deck AND covered patio great for entertaining! New stove (slide-in) will be installed soon for seamless counter top / bar experience. Great for a starter home or investment rental.

13. 2026-04-08
    price $199,000 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Come see this PRIVATE & cozy 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on the west side of Fayetteville; Minutes from the U of A, the entertainment district, and I-49. New windows, paint & fixtures make this house ready for you. Large private deck AND covered patio great for entertaining! New stove (slide-in) will be installed soon for seamless counter top / bar experience. Great for a starter home or investment rental.

14. 2026-02-18
    status Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Come see this PRIVATE & cozy 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on the west side of Fayetteville; Minutes from the U of A, the entertainment district, and I-49. New windows, paint & fixtures make this house ready for you. Large private deck AND covered patio great for entertaining! New stove (slide-in) will be installed soon for seamless counter top / bar experience. Great for a starter home or investment rental.

15. 2026-02-11
    status Pending 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Come see this PRIVATE & cozy 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on the west side of Fayetteville; Minutes from the U of A, the entertainment district, and I-49. New windows, paint & fixtures make this house ready for you. Large private deck AND covered patio great for entertaining! New stove (slide-in) will be installed soon for seamless counter top / bar experience. Great for a starter home or investment rental.

16. 2026-02-06
    status Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Come see this PRIVATE & cozy 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on the west side of Fayetteville; Minutes from the U of A, the entertainment district, and I-49. New windows, paint & fixtures make this house ready for you. Large private deck AND covered patio great for entertaining! New stove (slide-in) will be installed soon for seamless counter top / bar experience. Great for a starter home or investment rental.

17. 2026-02-06
    status Pending 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Come see this PRIVATE & cozy 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on the west side of Fayetteville; Minutes from the U of A, the entertainment district, and I-49. New windows, paint & fixtures make this house ready for you. Large private deck AND covered patio great for entertaining! New stove (slide-in) will be installed soon for seamless counter top / bar experience. Great for a starter home or investment rental.

18. 2026-01-21
    listed $215,000 Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Come see this PRIVATE & cozy 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on the west side of Fayetteville; Minutes from the U of A, the entertainment district, and I-49. New windows, paint & fixtures make this house ready for you. Large private deck AND covered patio great for entertaining! New stove (slide-in) will be installed soon for seamless counter top / bar experience. Great for a starter home or investment rental.

19. 2025-09-03
    price $200,000
20. 2025-07-14
    price $185,000
21. 2025-06-02
    soldstatus $120,000
22. 2019-04-22
    soldstatus $95,000
23. 2006-06-02
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $396 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$813/yr (+$68/mo · 205.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$396
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,876
• − Management: −$1,876
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $2,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$546
• After-tax cash flow: $4,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmington School District
• NCES district ID: 0506090
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $52,138
• Composite: 38.43/100
• National rank: #4199
• State rank: #34 of 238 in AR

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #871

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Washington County · 252,056 people
• City population: 118,228
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 32,497
• Household income: $96,014
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 883.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,748 people
• By 2030: 296,414 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 346,874 · +27.6%
• By 2050: 398,552 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 523,309 · +92.6%
• By 2100: 615,280 · +126.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.1% · R 51.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+10.4 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.44%
• Current HPI: 289.7478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+152.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $189,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $199,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Relisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — NWARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $215,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $200,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $185,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2019-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $396 · -10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.