207 Adkins St · Harlingen, TX 78550

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 977 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1952 977 sqft lot $128/sqft · 18% below area Est $152k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home in Harlingen, ideal for first-time buyers! Newly renovated with a modern tub and shower, fresh finishes, and new central air for comfort. Roof only 2 years old and situated on a 7,566 sq. ft. lot, offering plenty of space for outdoor activities or future expansions. This 1952-built home blends classic character with contemporary updates—move-in ready and waiting for you!

Key facts

• Newly renovated
• New central air
• Built 1952

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED
• MODERN TUB AND SHOWER
• NEW CENTRAL AIR
• ROOF ONLY 2 YEARS OLD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-101 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $107k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $96k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in Harlingen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#217 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, commute F.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 465 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,086 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.47%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,473
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -18.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
718 Pittman St	0.55mi	2/2.0	1,042 (+7%)	8mo	$155,300	$149	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-26,253
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-29,303
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78550

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 465
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $961 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,833/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $-101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,089

Max offer price $107,118

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1917 New Combes Hwy Unit H Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1098	$975	$0.89	21d	1	0.38mi
917 N 1st St Unit 917 Harlingen, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$770	$1.10	43d	1	0.51mi
902 N D St Unit A Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	850	$825	$0.97	43d	1	0.66mi
717 E Jim Hogg Ave Harlingen, TX	3.0	1.0	1039	$1,200	$1.15	13d	1	0.66mi
2101 N G St Unit B Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1004	$950	$0.95	21d	1	0.67mi
409 E Madison Ave Unit 4 Harlingen, TX	2.0	1.0	770	$750	$0.97	43d	1	0.96mi
709 E Jackson St Harlingen, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	13d	1	1.15mi
106 S A St Harlingen, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$850	$0.97	13d	3	1.15mi
20558 Alta Vista Ct Unit C Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	970	$1,125	$1.16	43d	1	1.16mi
20550 Alta Vista Ct Unit C Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	970	$1,125	$1.16	43d	1	1.18mi
204 S 7th St Harlingen, TX	2.0	1.0	713	$725	$1.02	21d	1	1.25mi
1723 Warren St Harlingen, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$865	$0.91	43d	1	1.26mi
1802 E Washington Ave Harlingen, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	848	$888	$1.05	21d	1	1.30mi
1802 E Washington Ave Unit 66 Harlingen, TX	1.0	1.0	640	$725	$1.13	13d	1	1.32mi
1802 E Washington Ave Unit 56 Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$995	$0.97	13d	1	1.32mi
1802 E Washington Ave Unit 54 Harlingen, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$900	$0.88	13d	1	1.32mi
1802 E Washington Ave Unit 45 Harlingen, TX	2.0	1.5	858	$875	$1.02	13d	1	1.32mi
1802 E Washington Ave Unit 96 Harlingen, TX	2.0	1.0	768	$825	$1.07	13d	1	1.32mi
1802 E Washington Ave Unit 44 Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	13d	1	1.32mi
1802 E Washington Ave Unit 14 Harlingen, TX	2.0	1.0	768	$875	$1.14	13d	1	1.32mi
1802 E Washington Ave Unit 94 Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$825	$0.78	13d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    listed $125,000 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home in Harlingen, ideal for first-time buyers! Newly renovated with a modern tub and shower, fresh finishes, and new central air for comfort. Roof only 2 years old and situated on a 7,566 sq. ft. lot, offering plenty of space for outdoor activities or future expansions. This 1952-built home blends classic character with contemporary updates—move-in ready and waiting for you!

16. 2023-09-29
    soldstatus
17. 2005-09-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$455/yr (+$38/mo · 24.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,833
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$922
• − Management: −$922
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$3,410
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$818
• After-tax cash flow: $-396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

Livability — Harlingen

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #5347

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harlingen, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 95,667
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,335
• Household income: $49,007
• Rent vs Own: 49.5% rent · 50.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2251.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 29% White 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.60%
• Current HPI: 167.7038
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.45%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $125,000 RGVMLS
• 2023-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,833 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.