786 Tara Dr · Trinity, TX 75862

$40,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1982 0.32 ac lot $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is located in Trinity Plantation. Home is being sold as is, where is, no repairs. Home requires repairs. This is a 3-bedroom, 2-bath on a corner lot.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: CH&P Management; Association fee $30 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2‑car garage; Detached carport (1 space); Additional parking available
• Security: Security gate
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single‑story entry level (first level rooms listed); Vinyl siding
• Construction: Built in 1982; Vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot in a subdivision; Asphalt road access; Security gate

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Free‑standing range; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) approximately 20x12; Bedroom (first level) approximately 13x9; Bedroom (first level) approximately 13x8
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat; One fireplace; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (first level) approximately 7x5

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $791 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,405 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lansberry El (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 570 students, 91% FRL); Trinity H S (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 350 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 50% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $70 of equity ($277 loan paydown + $-207 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 93% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $40,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.75%
• DSCR: 4.77
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,432
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1579 Tara Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-8%)	2mo	$179,900	$112	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $48,273
• Equity at exit: $10,592

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.93×
• Total profit: $111,193
• Equity at exit: $11,941

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $309/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $357

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $814	-5% $802	+0% $791	+5% $780	+10% $768
Rent	-10% $684	-5% $737	+0% $791	+5% $845	+10% $898
Rate	-1.0pp $811	-0.5pp $801	base $791	+0.5pp $781	+1.0pp $770

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $40,000 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 159-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $40,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $309 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 137.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 93% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$309
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $9,420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,261
• After-tax cash flow: $7,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Trinity

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1405
• US rank: #24056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $40,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $309 · -17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.