402 Patterson Ave · Bay City, MI 48706

$144,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1942 5,663 sqft lot Est $135k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Bay City with a number of cosmetic updates throughout. Good size kitchen with newer appliances, along with a newer roof, furnace, and hot water heater already taken care of. The home also has central AC. Basement has two bonus rooms added, providing extra space. Fenced yard and a 2 car garage.

Key facts

• Central ac
• Newer furnace
• Fenced yard

Tags

• NEWER APPLIANCES
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER FURNACE
• NEWER HOT WATER HEATER
• CENTRAL AC
• FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $144,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.95%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,696
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1304 LENG St	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+1%)	3mo	$98,000	$82	88
1107 Bradfield St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,224 (+3%)	3mo	$133,500	$109	78
1106 Lewis St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,203 (+1%)	3mo	$60,000	$50	75
602 Transit St	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-11%)	1mo	$156,500	$148	68
910 E Murphy St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-0%)	6mo	$260,000	$219	68
1235 Wellington St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+5%)	9mo	$141,000	$113	67
507 Bangor St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,070 (-10%)	6mo	$47,000	$44	61
301 LaSalle St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+5%)	8mo	$76,000	$61	53
904 Frank St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,074 (-10%)	9mo	$160,000	$149	52
1107 Moore St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (-14%)	4mo	$72,000	$70	51
427 James St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,088 (-9%)	3mo	$131,000	$120	51
304 Curtis St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-13%)	9mo	$125,000	$120	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,160
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $21,358
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$200 /mo · $2,403/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,292

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	43d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Bay City with a number of cosmetic updates throughout. Good size kitchen with newer appliances, along with a newer roof, furnace, and hot water heater already taken care of. The home also has central AC. Basement has two bonus rooms added, providing extra space. Fenced yard and a 2 car garage.

2. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Bay City with a number of cosmetic updates throughout. Good size kitchen with newer appliances, along with a newer roof, furnace, and hot water heater already taken care of. The home also has central AC. Basement has two bonus rooms added, providing extra space. Fenced yard and a 2 car garage.

3. 2026-04-16
   listed $144,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Bay City with a number of cosmetic updates throughout. Good size kitchen with newer appliances, along with a newer roof, furnace, and hot water heater already taken care of. The home also has central AC. Basement has two bonus rooms added, providing extra space. Fenced yard and a 2 car garage.

4. 2026-04-16
   listed $144,900 Active 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath home in Bay City with a number of cosmetic updates throughout. Good size kitchen with newer appliances, along with a newer roof, furnace, and hot water heater already taken care of. The home also has central AC. Basement has two bonus rooms added, providing extra space. Fenced yard and a 2 car garage.

5. 2022-10-12
   soldstatus $128,000
6. 2022-10-07
   soldstatus $128,000 Closed 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Perfect on Patterson!! Brand new roof, brand new furnace (2022). Now that your big ticket items are done you can enjoy the beautifully remodeled kitchen and bathroom. Fresh paint through out and carpeting professionally cleaned. There is a 3-season room off the kitchen that overlooks the sweet yard that will not take much care at all! This home has been meticulously maintained and you get to reap the benefits. You've seen what's out there. .. now take a lot at this charmer. Immediate possession!!

7. 2022-09-03
   status Pending 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Perfect on Patterson!! Brand new roof, brand new furnace (2022). Now that your big ticket items are done you can enjoy the beautifully remodeled kitchen and bathroom. Fresh paint through out and carpeting professionally cleaned. There is a 3-season room off the kitchen that overlooks the sweet yard that will not take much care at all! This home has been meticulously maintained and you get to reap the benefits. You've seen what's out there. .. now take a lot at this charmer. Immediate possession!!

8. 2022-08-23
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Perfect on Patterson!! Brand new roof, brand new furnace (2022). Now that your big ticket items are done you can enjoy the beautifully remodeled kitchen and bathroom. Fresh paint through out and carpeting professionally cleaned. There is a 3-season room off the kitchen that overlooks the sweet yard that will not take much care at all! This home has been meticulously maintained and you get to reap the benefits. You've seen what's out there. .. now take a lot at this charmer. Immediate possession!!

9. 2022-08-12
   listed $134,900 Active 502-char remark

   Show marketing remark (502 chars)

   Perfect on Patterson!! Brand new roof, brand new furnace (2022). Now that your big ticket items are done you can enjoy the beautifully remodeled kitchen and bathroom. Fresh paint through out and carpeting professionally cleaned. There is a 3-season room off the kitchen that overlooks the sweet yard that will not take much care at all! This home has been meticulously maintained and you get to reap the benefits. You've seen what's out there. .. now take a lot at this charmer. Immediate possession!!

10. 2017-06-20
    soldstatus $57,000
11. 2017-06-05
    soldstatus $57,000
12. 2017-04-17
    listed $64,900
13. 2014-06-30
    historical
14. 2013-10-14
    listed $59,900
15. 2013-02-28
    historical
16. 2012-09-08
    listed $66,900
17. 2005-05-27
    soldstatus $77,000
18. 2005-05-26
    soldstatus $77,000
19. 2005-04-27
    listed $79,900
20. 2005-02-03
    historical
21. 2004-07-27
    listed $85,900
22. 2004-07-24
    historical
23. 2004-01-24
    listed $85,900
24. 2002-08-22
    soldstatus $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,403 · $200/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,403 · $200/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,403
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $1,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$342
• After-tax cash flow: $3,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+62.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $144,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $144,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-07 Sold (MLS) $128,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-09-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-23 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-12 Listed $134,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-05 Sold (MLS) $57,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-04-17 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-06-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-10-14 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2013-02-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-09-08 Listed $66,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-26 Sold (MLS) $77,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-04-27 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-02-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-07-27 Listed $85,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-07-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2004-01-24 Listed $85,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,403 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.