6815 Memory Ln · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40258

$234,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2021 0.77 ac lot Est $254k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this peaceful, unique property situated on just shy of an acre wooded lot. This piece of property boasts a nearly new home, above ground pool, detached garage, and multiple outbuildings. The garage is a mechanics dream with concrete floors and plenty of space to work. The driveway is extra long with a cedar privacy gate and plenty of parking in the rear. Enjoy the fall evenings next to the fire pit surrounded by trees and privacy. There is also a fully fenced dog run in the backyard as well as a set up for a game of horseshoes. Inside you will find an open concept living space perfect for entertaining. Nice Laminate flooring in living and bathroom spaces and carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen boasts updated light fixtures and plenty of cabinet and counter space.

Key facts

• Magnificent backyard
• 10 x 14 deck
• Retractable awning

Tags

• ACRE LOT
• MAGNIFICENT BACKYARD
• 10 X 14 DECK
• RETRACTABLE AWNING
• FIRE PIT
• 20 DIAMETER ABOVE GROUND POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Sylvania subdivision
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with space for 2 cars; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story
• Construction: Built in 2021; Vinyl siding with wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared, level and wooded lot; Full yard fencing (wood and chain link)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Formal dining area adjacent to the kitchen
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms total, all on the first floor; Primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, including a primary full bathroom on the first floor; All full baths are on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat pump; Central air; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Eight total rooms; Four closets; No basement; Living room; Dining room
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-26/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 122 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,198 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,174
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6713 Memory Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,363 (-10%)	4mo	$249,999	$183	69
7502 Norwich Blvd	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,500 (-1%)	3mo	$218,000	$145	61
7001 Memory Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,721 (+13%)	8mo	$306,500	$178	60
5901 Soverign Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (-6%)	2mo	$299,900	$210	57
5904 Greenwood Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-1%)	4mo	$220,000	$147	56
6905 Feyhurst Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,603 (+5%)	11mo	$335,000	$209	56
6100 Deady Dr	0.42mi	4/1.5	1,336 (-12%)	6mo	$215,000	$161	53
6506 Memory Ln Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,676 (+10%)	15mo	$230,000	$137	49
6510 Tearose Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,625 (+7%)	8mo	$235,000	$145	45
6803 Creston Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (-9%)	2mo	$231,500	$167	44
7005 Feyhurst Dr	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,683 (+11%)	6mo	$290,000	$172	44
6503 Connie Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+12%)	3mo	$202,000	$119	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-43,027
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-56,421
• Equity at exit: $20,318

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40258

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,567/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,955

Max offer price $234,619

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $64	+0% $-2	+5% $-69	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-156	-5% $-79	+0% $-2	+5% $75	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $58	base $-2	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-125

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6004 Noah Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,650	$1.46	17d	1	0.63mi
6407 Hunters Creek Blvd Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,915	$1.25	24d	1	0.76mi
6100 Goalby Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1582	$1,850	$1.17	16d	1	0.84mi
6311 Hackel Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1248	$1,735	$1.39	2d	1	0.91mi
7703 Texlyn Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,675	$1.38	11d	1	1.01mi
7812 Westbrook Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,965	$1.43	19d	1	1.02mi
7710 Texlyn Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1325	$1,695	$1.28	22d	1	1.05mi
7820 Hepatica Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	2.5	1763	$2,070	$1.17	15d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $234,999 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,999 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,999 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,999 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,999 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $244,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,567 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,567 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,567
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,066
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$976
• After-tax cash flow: $950/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,841
• Household income: $68,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 839.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 22% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -296.36%
• Current HPI: 244.6667
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+3140.7% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $244,999 Metro Search MLS
• 2023-01-23 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-20 Sold (MLS) $225,000 HKARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Sold (MLS) $225,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-12-09 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2022-12-07 Delisted — HKARMLS
• 2022-10-17 Listed $235,000 HKARMLS
• 2022-10-13 Listed $250,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $240,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $237,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-10-13 Price Changed $235,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2020-02-08 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-07-03 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-07-03 Listed $15,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-07-03 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-07-03 Listed $15,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-07-03 Price Changed $12,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-07-03 Listed $12,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-07-03 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-08-19 Listed $15,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-08-18 Listed $15,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-08-18 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2017-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-21 Sold (MLS) $12,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2017-08-24 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2017-08-08 Listed $12,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2008-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $7,560 Public Records

Property tax history

+37.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,567 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.