506 40th St · Lubbock, TX 79404

$100,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1933 6,625 sqft lot $71/sqft · 12% below area Est $114k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Almost everything is newer in this recently remodeled 3 bed, 2 bath home!! Freshly painted brick on the exterior, newer windows throughout, HUGE kitchen with island, neutral paint colors with new flooring and tile. Newer HVAC. Huge master bedroom with large master bathroom. This one is move in ready.

Key facts

• New flooring
• Huge kitchen
• Move in ready

Tags

• HUGE KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• NEWER HVAC
• MOVE IN READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harwell El (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 410 students, 88% FRL); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 92% FRL vs 60% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.48%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,766
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -12.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1314 46th Pl	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+1%)	24mo	$140,000	$98	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $22,854
• Equity at exit: $46,228

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $66,411
• Equity at exit: $72,240

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,018 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,047/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $827

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $208	-5% $179	+0% $151	+5% $123	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $111	+0% $151	+5% $191	+10% $232
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $177	base $151	+0.5pp $125	+1.0pp $99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
512 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$849	$0.97	15d	1	0.07mi
419 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1206	$950	$0.79	46d	1	0.12mi
519 42nd St Apt A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1092	$895	$0.82	15d	1	0.15mi
531 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,090	$0.84	15d	1	0.31mi
220 44th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$910	$0.93	15d	1	0.31mi
519 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	15d	1	0.34mi
529 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$875	$0.80	15d	1	0.34mi
520 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$850	$0.71	15d	1	0.37mi
4606 Avenue C Unit C Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1142	$999	$0.87	15d	1	0.43mi
812 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1282	$1,250	$0.98	23d	1	0.51mi
1312 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	940	$795	$0.85	23d	1	0.53mi
505 E 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,125	$1.17	15d	1	0.62mi
1712 42nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	899	$695	$0.77	23d	1	0.93mi
5512 Avenue G Unit G Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1117	$1,000	$0.90	46d	1	1.02mi
2603 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,175	$0.97	46d	1	1.05mi
1610 28th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$750	$0.71	15d	1	1.09mi
1920 45th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	23d	1	1.11mi
1919 34th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1463	$1,100	$0.75	15d	1	1.12mi
1517 25th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,095	$0.72	23d	1	1.13mi
5614 Avenue A Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1129	$695	$0.62	23d	1	1.14mi
2003 32nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,150	$0.94	46d	1	1.20mi
2103 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1075	$700	$0.65	15d	1	1.24mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	46d	1	1.25mi
2107 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1025	$800	$0.78	46d	1	1.28mi
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$925	$0.66	46d	1	1.28mi
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$695	$0.50	23d	1	1.28mi
2015 Avenue L Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$960	$0.98	15d	1	1.30mi
1901 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1142	$950	$0.83	23d	1	1.31mi
2119 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1055	$950	$0.90	46d	1	1.33mi
1920 27th St Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1366	$1,500	$1.10	46d	1	1.34mi
1610 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	46d	1	1.35mi
1915 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1221	$1,100	$0.90	46d	1	1.35mi
1612 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	46d	1	1.35mi
1614 58th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	46d	1	1.36mi
1618 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	46d	1	1.37mi
2007 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,250	$1.20	46d	1	1.39mi
2211 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1293	$1,200	$0.93	46d	1	1.40mi
1601 21st St Unit a Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$925	$0.94	15d	1	1.41mi
2101 51st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$900	$0.82	23d	1	1.41mi
1904 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	46d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $100,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 319-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $100,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $115,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 84 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 83 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 82 DOM
19. 2026-03-09
    listed $115,000 Active 301-char remark

    Show marketing remark (301 chars)

    Almost everything is newer in this recently remodeled 3 bed, 2 bath home!! Freshly painted brick on the exterior, newer windows throughout, HUGE kitchen with island, neutral paint colors with new flooring and tile. Newer HVAC. Huge master bedroom with large master bathroom. This one is move in ready.

20. 2026-01-12
    price $115,000
21. 2025-09-03
    historical $1,300
22. 2025-07-11
    listed $1,300
23. 2025-03-15
    price $130,000
24. 2025-01-04
    price $135,000
25. 2023-04-19
    soldstatus
26. 2023-04-03
    soldstatus Closed
27. 2023-03-16
    status Pending
28. 2023-03-01
    price $134,000
29. 2023-02-16
    status Active
30. 2023-01-31
    status Pending
31. 2023-01-20
    listed $135,000 Active
32. 2022-08-22
    soldstatus
33. 2022-08-15
    soldstatus Closed
34. 2022-08-03
    status Pending
35. 2022-07-22
    price $45,000
36. 2022-07-13
    listed $65,000 Active
37. 2019-10-16
    soldstatus
38. 2019-10-16
    soldstatus
39. 2019-10-16
    soldstatus
40. 2019-05-15
    listed $25,000
41. 1988-12-01
    soldstatus
42. 1987-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,047 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$783/yr (+$65/mo · 74.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,047
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$978
• − Management: −$978
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $207
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$50
• After-tax cash flow: $1,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+360.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $115,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $115,000 LARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Rental Removed $1,300 LARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed for Rent $1,300 LARMLS
• 2025-03-15 Price Changed $130,000 LARMLS
• 2025-01-04 Price Changed $135,000 LARMLS
• 2023-04-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-03 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2023-03-16 Pending — LARMLS
• 2023-03-01 Price Changed $134,000 LARMLS
• 2023-02-16 Relisted — LARMLS
• 2023-01-31 Pending — LARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listed $135,000 LARMLS
• 2022-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-15 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2022-08-03 Pending — LARMLS
• 2022-07-22 Price Changed $45,000 LARMLS
• 2022-07-13 Listed $65,000 LARMLS
• 2019-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-16 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2019-05-15 Listed $25,000 LARMLS
• 1988-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,047 · +14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.