8207 Double Bridge Rd · Payne Springs, TX 75156

$89,900

9 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1982 5,053 sqft lot $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is.

Key facts

• 5,053 sq ft lot
• Built 1982
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession: Negotiable; Property listed as for sale (standard listing)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash; Loan type: Treat As Clear; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual HOA fee $200; HOA includes full use of facilities; HOA management: Cherokee Shores POA

Exterior

• Parking: No garage or covered parking (parking features: Other)
• Utilities: Municipal utility district: No; Other utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Built in 1982
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre; Subdivision: Cherokee Shores Sec B

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (approx. 18 x 18); Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 9 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1, approx. 15 x 15)
• Bathrooms: 5 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Two-story layout; One living area; One dining area; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Other utility features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $879 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 3.9% in Payne Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#985 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eustace Pri (497 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $90k implies a 597% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,551 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.89%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $35,805
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $81,649
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $879

Break-even live

Break-even rent $808

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   price $89,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $99,900 Active
17. 2025-10-03
    status Active
18. 2025-09-30
    historical
19. 2025-07-21
    price $160,000
20. 2025-06-05
    price $180,000
21. 2025-05-10
    listed $200,000 Active
22. 2024-11-30
    historical
23. 2024-08-26
    listed $275,000 Active
24. 2022-03-31
    soldstatus Closed
25. 2022-03-15
    status Active
26. 2022-03-14
    historical Active Option Contract
27. 2022-03-04
    price $130,000
28. 2022-01-07
    price $149,999
29. 2021-12-08
    listed $202,222 Active
30. 2010-03-15
    soldstatus
31. 2010-02-10
    historical
32. 2010-02-09
    listed $18,900
33. 2009-08-04
    soldstatus $12,891
34. 2008-08-21
    soldstatus
35. 2008-06-26
    historical
36. 2008-04-06
    listed $15,000
37. 2006-02-07
    soldstatus $32,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $9,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,328
• After-tax cash flow: $8,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Payne Springs

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #985
• US rank: #17539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• City population: 16,333
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+211.2% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $180,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-10 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-08-26 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2022-03-31 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-03-15 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2022-03-14 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-03-04 Price Changed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2022-01-07 Price Changed $149,999 NTREIS
• 2021-12-08 Listed $202,222 NTREIS
• 2010-03-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2010-02-10 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2010-02-09 Listed $18,900 NTREIS
• 2009-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $12,891 Public Records
• 2008-08-21 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-06-26 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2008-04-06 Listed $15,000 NTREIS
• 2006-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $32,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,574 · -46.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.