8105 Water Tower Dr · Palm River-Clair Mel, FL 33619

$250,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,070 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2005 5,854 sqft lot $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Multiple Offers! Seller requests highest and best by 9pm May 3 and will review offers Monday. Tampa home for sale! 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Canterbury Lakes community of Tampa. This home offers a functional split floor plan with spacious living areas, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinet and counter space and opens to the main living area, creating a comfortable flow throughout. The primary suite includes a private bath and generous closet space, while the additional bedrooms are well-sized for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy a fully fenced backyard—perfect for relaxing or gatherings. Property is being sold

Key facts

• Private bath
• Split floor plan
• 5,854 sq ft lot

Tags

• CANTERBURY LAKES COMMUNITY
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• PRIVATE BATH
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: PD
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Anthony homeowners association (annual fee $460; monthly equivalent $38.33); Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.13-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($10/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frost Elementary School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 616 students, 69% FRL); Giunta Middle School (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 857 students, 74% FRL); Spoto High School (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #434 of 667 statewide, top 66%, 1,823 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,523/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($66k/yr) (locally 2006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-47,652
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-69,186
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33619

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,523 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$539 /mo · $6,469/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,522

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $72	+0% $1	+5% $-70	+10% $-141
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-99	+0% $1	+5% $100	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $64	base $1	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8207 Water Tower Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	2460	$2,595	$1.05	19d	1	0.05mi
4429 Globe Thistle Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1663	$2,150	$1.29	4d	1	0.27mi
4429 Globe Thistle Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1663	$2,150	$1.29	6d	1	0.27mi
8512 Canterbury Lake Blvd Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,350	$1.36	26d	1	0.34mi
4903 S 83rd St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1683	$1,825	$1.08	22d	1	0.40mi
4903 S 83rd St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1683	$1,825	$1.08	26d	1	0.40mi
7018 Samuel Ivy Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	1805	$2,400	$1.33	19d	1	0.49mi
4768 White Sanderling Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1880	$2,450	$1.30	6d	1	0.50mi
3810 Cat Mint St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1663	$2,100	$1.26	26d	1	0.51mi
4714 Norman Oak Pl Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	2109	$2,495	$1.18	16d	1	0.53mi
7412 Rosy Periwinkle Ct Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,400	$1.28	26d	1	0.53mi
7412 Rosy Periwinkle Ct Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,400	$1.28	1d	1	0.53mi
7309 Canterbury Bells Ct Tampa, FL	5.0	2.5	2415	$2,900	$1.20	26d	1	0.57mi
7309 Canterbury Bells Ct Tampa, FL	5.0	3.0	2415	$2,900	$1.20	22d	1	0.57mi
4924 White Sanderling Ct Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	1880	$2,300	$1.22	26d	1	0.57mi
7318 Spring Snowflake Ave Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	1763	$2,470	$1.40	1d	1	0.61mi
4978 White Sanderling Ct Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1880	$2,395	$1.27	12d	1	0.61mi
4708 Summer Savory St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.5	1805	$2,430	$1.35	26d	1	0.61mi
8961 Turnstone Haven Pl Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1880	$2,300	$1.22	6d	1	0.66mi
7122 Samuel Ivy Dr Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,495	$1.29	26d	1	0.68mi
7228 Reunion Ct Unit 1 Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,300	$1.19	26d	1	0.80mi
4515 Savannah Holly Pl Riverview, FL	3.0	2.5	1862	$2,300	$1.24	13d	1	0.82mi
9405 Hidden Water Cir Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1436	$2,300	$1.60	13d	1	0.83mi
5906 S 81st St Tampa, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,999	$1.87	26d	1	1.01mi
9246 Headwaters Ave Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1014	$2,727	$2.69	0d	28	1.06mi
9303 Cobalt Dr Riverview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,510	$2.31	1d	47	1.16mi
5940 Sweet Birch Dr Riverview, FL	3.0	2.0	1554	$2,300	$1.48	1d	1	1.29mi
6402 Yellow Buckeye Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,950	$1.34	26d	1	1.37mi
2415 S 68th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,120	$1.43	26d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $250,000 Active
3. 2005-04-18
   soldstatus $3,075,300
4. 1997-10-17
   soldstatus $250,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,469 · $539/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,469 · $539/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,275
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$6,469
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,422
• − Management: −$2,422
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$965
• After-tax cash flow: $975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm River-Clair Mel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm River-Clair Mel, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 40,302
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,396
• Household income: $66,134
• Rent vs Own: 49.2% rent · 50.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2006.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 36% Black 28% White 27% Two or more races 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 13% Cuban 11% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.52%
• Current HPI: 375.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.14%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $3,075,300 Public Records
• 1997-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,469 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.