1989 Fordsbush Spur Rd · St. Johnsville, NY 13339

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1978 12 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The land is the real star of this property. 12 sprawling acres offering privacy and potential. Maybe you've dreamed of starting a hobby farm or entertained the idea of homesteading. The possibilities are endless on this peaceful, rural parcel. While the home itself may need more than a little elbow grease, it's a chance to renovate or start fresh and build new. Ample space for a barn, outbuildings or a greenhouse.

Key facts

• Hobby farm
• Outbuildings
• 12 sprawling acres

Tags

• 12 SPRAWLING ACRES
• HOBBY FARM
• AMPLE SPACE FOR A BARN
• OUTBUILDINGS
• GREENHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($971 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Plain Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #401 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.24% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $28,554
• Equity at exit: $52,305

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $80,198
• Equity at exit: $91,368

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13339

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,859/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $841

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $128	+0% $103	+5% $77	+10% $52
Rent	-10% $26	-5% $64	+0% $103	+5% $141	+10% $179
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $126	base $103	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-08-20
   soldstatus $75,000
2. 2025-06-09
   status Pending
3. 2025-03-19
   status Active
4. 2025-02-13
   status Pending
5. 2024-12-24
   listed $90,000 Active
6. 1993-06-25
   soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,859 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,859 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,859
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$932
• − Management: −$932
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable loss: −$180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$43
• After-tax cash flow: $1,276/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Plain Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611370
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $41,754
• Composite: 41.94/100
• National rank: #3352
• State rank: #401 of 590 in NY

Livability — St. Johnsville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,131

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 10% Lithuanian 9% Romanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.24%
• Current HPI: 320.8989
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+33.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-09 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-03-19 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-02-13 Pending — Global MLS
• 2024-12-24 Listed $90,000 Global MLS
• 1993-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,859 · -6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.