5405 1st St NE · St. Petersburg, FL 33703

$329,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1991 4,909 sqft lot Est $521k · 37% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Edgemoor Estates in St Petersburg! This property is a TRUE Split Plan 3 bed 2 bath home built in 1991. This home has NEVER FLOODED since the owner has lived in it since 2002. This 3/2 is very well laid out and has a LOT of SPACE for a growing family. Although not updated at the county there is 1,390sf under AC. The primary bedroom has an ensuite tub/shower combo and a walk-in closet with GENEROUS space for a king-sized bed, dressers & vanities. The 2 other bedrooms each have a generous amount of space with nice sized CLOSETS. They share a hall bath with a shower. The kitchen has CEILING height cabinets for a TON of storage AND 2 LARGE pantry cabinets. The laundry closet is

Key facts

• Play equipment
• Never flooded
• Storage building

Tags

• SPLIT PLAN
• NEVER FLOODED
• CEILING HEIGHT CABINETS
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• STORAGE BUILDING
• PLAY EQUIPMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential single family; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 100 (0.11 acres); Road surfaces: concrete and dirt
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated; Street lights in the community

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built on a single level
• Exterior features: Playground on the property; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Water filtration system; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Living/dining layout; Solid surface counters; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside the home; Laundry located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shore Acres Elementary School (math 61% / reading 52%, grade C+, #816 of 2,144 statewide, top 39%, 709 students, 46% FRL); Meadowlawn Middle School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 832 students, 69% FRL); Northeast High School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,736 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $329k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $292,377 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.39%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $520,708
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
251 Davison Ave NE	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,323 (+3%)	1mo	$395,000	$299	76
474 Dawson Ave NE	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,227 (-5%)	6mo	$379,000	$309	74
5517 Pershing St NE	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (-9%)	2mo	$340,000	$291	68
565 55th Ave NE	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+11%)	2mo	$422,000	$295	66
205 SE Jefferson Cir N	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,365 (+6%)	1mo	$350,000	$256	64
780 62nd Ave NE	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,284 (-0%)	3mo	$231,000	$180	59
486 Genoa Cir NE	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+12%)	5mo	$560,000	$389	59
5525 Pine Cir NE	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+14%)	3mo	$375,000	$255	58
423 61st Ave NE	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,332 (+3%)	4mo	$215,000	$161	58
768 53rd Ter N	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,151 (-11%)	1mo	$427,500	$371	52
4921 7th St N	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-10%)	4mo	$415,000	$360	51
5533 Atlantic Ave N	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,125 (-13%)	3mo	$371,500	$330	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-61,218
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-69,494
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33703

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,037

Max offer price $313,131

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $3	+0% $-90	+5% $-183	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-321	-5% $-205	+0% $-90	+5% $26	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $-6	base $-90	+0.5pp $-175	+1.0pp $-262

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
375 54th Ter N St. Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$3,284	$3.40	0d	13	0.22mi
4920 Locust St NE St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,825	$1.76	26d	1	0.29mi
5516 Pine Cir NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0	1205	$2,500	$2.07	6d	1	0.33mi
5925 1st St NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,799	$1.85	6d	1	0.36mi
4681 1st St NE #209 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,100	$1.88	0d	1	0.43mi
120 47th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,999	$2.19	4d	8	0.45mi
525 Moreno Cir NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1587	$3,500	$2.21	16d	1	0.47mi
4843 Napoli Ct NE Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$3,000	$2.48	0d	1	0.48mi
4651 1st St NE #306 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,900	$2.59	6d	1	0.49mi
617 52nd Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1481	$3,250	$2.19	6d	1	0.50mi
5185 6th Way N St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$3,150	$2.13	6d	1	0.51mi
628 51st Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,800	$1.89	5d	1	0.52mi
517 Hampton Ave NE St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	896	$2,950	$3.29	26d	1	0.53mi
617 Segovia Ct NE Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1420	$2,950	$2.08	26d	1	0.55mi
620 62nd Ave N #1110 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,700	$1.92	0d	1	0.73mi
5801 Magnolia St N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1147	$2,250	$1.96	6d	1	0.75mi
411 42nd Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1365	$3,500	$2.56	19d	1	0.76mi
613 44th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1124	$2,250	$2.00	6d	1	0.76mi
324 42nd Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1434	$3,500	$2.44	0d	1	0.77mi
131 41st Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	933	$2,100	$2.25	5d	2	0.78mi
233 41st Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0	920	$2,245	$2.44	0d	1	0.79mi
5210 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior St N St. Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1318	$3,600	$2.73	15d	1	0.81mi
101 40th Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$2,700	$2.51	6d	1	0.84mi
541 40th Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0	1630	$3,000	$1.84	26d	1	0.92mi
4628 Dr Martin Luther King Jr St N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,950	$2.08	26d	1	0.92mi
1155 53rd Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1790	$3,500	$1.96	6d	1	1.02mi
400 38th Ave NE St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1166	$5,400	$4.63	26d	1	1.03mi
646 38th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	978	$2,400	$2.45	6d	1	1.12mi
1412 56th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1156	$2,195	$1.90	5d	1	1.18mi
1416 55th Ave N St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$4,600	$3.54	26d	1	1.18mi
111 73rd Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0–1.5	695	$2,225	$3.20	26d	1	1.22mi
5924 15th Way N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1104	$3,200	$2.90	6d	1	1.29mi
510 34th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1334	$3,200	$2.40	6d	1	1.32mi
3651 Haines Rd N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	13d	1	1.38mi
6016 18th St NE Saint Petersburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1692	$3,900	$2.30	6d	1	1.39mi
4104 1/2 Haines Rd N Unit 1 St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	26d	1	1.44mi
5923 19th St NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$3,299	$2.47	0d	1	1.45mi
5923 19th St NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1336	$3,500	$2.62	6d	1	1.45mi
5840 Tanglewood Dr NE Saint Petersburg, FL	4.0	3.0	1680	$3,150	$1.88	6d	1	1.46mi
600 76th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	775	$1,849	$2.39	0d	9	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $329,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 695-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $329,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,731 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,403/yr (+$117/mo · 105.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$6,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,807
• − Management: −$2,807
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$6,620
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,589
• After-tax cash flow: $511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Petersburg

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Petersburg, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 249,151
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,264
• Household income: $95,224
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 509.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -617.95%
• Current HPI: 352.2886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1956.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $329,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $119,000 Public Records
• 1991-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records
• 1990-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,328 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.