611 Montclair St · Refugio, TX 78377

$27,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,203 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1963 10,292 sqft lot Est $51k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Said property has been damaged and consumed extensively by fire therefore is not livable and should not to be occupied as a residence.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1963

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces (2 covered)
• Utilities: No utilities listed
• Home design: Single family residence; One level
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Interior lot

Interior

• Flooring: Concrete flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#255 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Refugio ISD (town): math 38% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 24 units permitted in Refugio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $190 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $604 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Refugio County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $27,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 111.97%
• DSCR: 5.98
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $50,526
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
707 Tallow	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,337 (+11%)	0mo	$210,000	$157	68
210 Swift St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (-4%)	12mo	$99,900	$87	50
505 W Heard St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,041 (-14%)	13mo	$70,000	$67	48
512 N Alamo St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	22mo	$42,500	$33	43
512 N Alamo St Unit A	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	22mo	$42,500	$33	43
214 Dunbar St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+13%)	9mo	$45,000	$33	41
406 W Commons St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-10%)	14mo	$45,900	$42	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.49×
• Total profit: $42,255
• Equity at exit: $5,095

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.55×
• Total profit: $96,613
• Equity at exit: $4,123

Cash invested: $7,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78377

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $241

Max offer price $27,500

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,875
• Closing costs: $825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 E Commons St Refugio, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$1,150	$1.56	44d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $27,500 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $27,500 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $27,500 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $27,500 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $27,500 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $27,500 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $27,500 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 134-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $27,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,540
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$800
• Taxable income: $8,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,088
• After-tax cash flow: $6,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Refugio ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,181
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5712
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Refugio

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #255
• US rank: #6003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Refugio, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,376

Population outlook (Refugio County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,573 people
• By 2030: 7,665 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 7,895 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 8,234 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 9,521 · +25.7%
• By 2100: 10,148 · +34.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 35% Two or more races 25% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Refugio

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.9% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.7 2016: R+27.0 2012: R+24.7 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.20%
• Current HPI: 142.4929
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $27,500 RAAR
• 2017-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1975-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1963-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1963-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,052 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.