205 4th St E · Horace, ND 58047

$284,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1991 10,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Make this updated 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom rambler your next home! You'll enjoy all the updates, which include newer laminate floors throughout the living room, kitchen and dining area, brand new carpeting in one of the main floor bedrooms & entire family room, granite counters in the kitchen & both bathrooms, tile floors in both bathrooms, a new wall a/c & more! Additional features include a large fully fenced yard, a yard shed for additional storage, 3 separate garden areas & a spacious wood deck off the dining room for entertaining. Set up your showing today!

Key facts

• Garden spaces
• Fire pit area
• Storage shed

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• FIRE PIT AREA
• GARDEN SPACES
• STORAGE SHED
• APPLE TREE
• HARD SURFACE FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Not a fractional ownership
• Financial info: Other mortgage type

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Residential property; One story
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Concrete foundation; Foundation area 1,064
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Full yard fencing; Deck; Patio; Storage shed; Lot approximately 70 x 150

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 three-quarter bath; Full basement and main floor full bath
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Window coverings; Ceiling fan(s); Tile floors; Concrete basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Dryer; Electric water heater; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-562/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Horace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in ND, #4,718 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• West Fargo 6 (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 53 in ND (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Fargo High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #71 of 144 statewide, top 52%, 1,423 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,218 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (410 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $183k; list at $285k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $212,003 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.70%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-49,270
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-47,232
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58047

• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,307/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,179

Max offer price $276,625

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $34	+0% $-47	+5% $-127	+10% $-208
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-131	+0% $-47	+5% $37	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $26	base $-47	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7994 Jacks Way Horace, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,599	$1.78	14d	16	0.71mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-06
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-30
   price $284,900
4. 2026-04-14
   listed $295,000 Active
5. 2018-09-20
   soldstatus $183,000
6. 2018-09-14
   soldstatus $183,000 582-char remark

   Show marketing remark (582 chars)

   Make this updated 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom rambler your next home! You'll enjoy all the updates, which include newer laminate floors throughout the living room, kitchen and dining area, brand new carpeting in one of the main floor bedrooms & entire family room, granite counters in the kitchen & both bathrooms, tile floors in both bathrooms, a new wall a/c & more! Additional features include a large fully fenced yard, a yard shed for additional storage, 3 separate garden areas & a spacious wood deck off the dining room for entertaining. Set up your showing today!

7. 2018-07-05
   listed $183,900 582-char remark

   Show marketing remark (582 chars)

   Make this updated 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom rambler your next home! You'll enjoy all the updates, which include newer laminate floors throughout the living room, kitchen and dining area, brand new carpeting in one of the main floor bedrooms & entire family room, granite counters in the kitchen & both bathrooms, tile floors in both bathrooms, a new wall a/c & more! Additional features include a large fully fenced yard, a yard shed for additional storage, 3 separate garden areas & a spacious wood deck off the dining room for entertaining. Set up your showing today!

8. 2013-02-01
   soldstatus $128,000
9. 2007-09-21
   soldstatus $127,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,307 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,792 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,485/yr (+$124/mo · 113.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$1,307
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$5,608
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,346
• After-tax cash flow: $784/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Fargo 6
• NCES district ID: 3819410
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,914
• Composite: 36.6/100
• National rank: #4628
• State rank: #26 of 53 in ND

Livability — Horace

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #4718

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horace, ND
• County: Cass County · 177,143 people
• City population: 5,636
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• Population (ZIP): 5,636
• Household income: $142,361
• Rent vs Own: 4.7% rent · 95.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8.0

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,771 people
• By 2030: 251,835 · +12.5%
• By 2040: 311,816 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 378,694 · +69.2%
• By 2075: 571,386 · +155.3%
• By 2100: 769,727 · +244.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Scotch-Irish 7% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 44.9% · R 53.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+2.7 2016: R+10.7 2012: R+3.0 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.83%
• Current HPI: 178.7028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fargo, ND-MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+122.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $284,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $295,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $183,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-14 Sold (MLS) $183,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-05 Listed $183,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $127,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,307 · -40.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.