311 Nola Ln · Dundee, FL 33838

$254,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,733 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,662 sqft lot 2-car garage $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home offers a spacious layout with a total of three bedrooms, including two secondary bedrooms near a full bathroom off the entry. At the back of the home, a flexible open-concept layout blends the kitchen with the living and dining spaces, steps from the generous owner's suite, which features an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet to make everyday living feel seamless.

Key facts

• Picnic area
• Luxe owner's suite
• Restroom cabana

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• RESORT STYLE SWIMMING POOL
• RESTROOM CABANA
• PICNIC AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $254,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $278,552.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-365 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#638 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandhill Elementary School (math 21% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 991 students, 55% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,057/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,655 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.62%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,552
• List price: $254,990
• Delta: -8.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
322 Nola Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,733 (0%)	1mo	$260,667	$150	97
307 Nola Ln	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,570 (-9%)	1mo	$255,990	$163	78
315 Nola Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,985 (+14%)	1mo	$287,114	$145	73
1207 Stetson Ave	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,985 (+14%)	0mo	$276,150	$139	73
1203 Stetson Ave	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,985 (+14%)	1mo	$269,990	$136	72
608 Broadoak Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,988 (+15%)	0mo	$299,990	$151	63
560 Mahogany Way	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,989 (+15%)	2mo	$305,000	$153	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $128,509
• Equity at exit: $250,942

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $396,878
• Equity at exit: $541,165

Cash invested: $77,995 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 45.4 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $291,990 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 136 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33838

• Home prices YoY: 17.6%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,057 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,178/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,519

Max offer price $225,687

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-173	-5% $-269	+0% $-365	+5% $-462	+10% $-558
Rent	-10% $-528	-5% $-447	+0% $-365	+5% $-284	+10% $-203
Rate	-1.0pp $-225	-0.5pp $-294	base $-365	+0.5pp $-438	+1.0pp $-511

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,638
• Closing costs: $8,357
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2163 Mandarin Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1688	$1,869	$1.11	63d	1	1.03mi
1635 Swan Lake Cir Dundee, FL	5.0	2.0	1975	$2,349	$1.19	73d	1	1.17mi
1608 Fitzgerald Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,749	$1.25	0d	1	1.19mi
1804 Canaan Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1563	$1,905	$1.22	5d	1	1.20mi
1716 Canaan Loop Dundee, FL	5.0	3.0	1984	$2,160	$1.09	65d	1	1.20mi
1609 Steely Dr Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,150	$1.33	9d	1	1.21mi
1760 Canaan Loop Dundee, FL	4.0	2.0	1869	$2,300	$1.23	71d	1	1.30mi
1544 Swan Lake Cir Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,871	$1.34	65d	1	1.33mi
1571 Swan Lake Cir Dundee, FL	4.0	2.0	1869	$1,985	$1.06	5d	1	1.34mi
1563 Swan Lake Cir Dundee, FL	5.0	3.0	1975	$1,999	$1.01	7d	1	1.36mi
1709 Hill Top Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,160	$1.04	99d	1	1.37mi
1804 Vista View Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,250	$1.09	119d	1	1.38mi
1804 Vista View Dr Dundee, FL	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,250	$1.09	9d	1	1.38mi
1378 Legatto Loop Dundee, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,800	$1.29	85d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,096Tax year information available
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $65 / annual $780)Association approval requiredAssociation includes pool; fee covers escrow reserves fund, grounds maintenance, and poolAssociation: Garrison Property Services / Amelisa KirklandPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18x20) with garage door openerDriveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable available and connectedElectricity available and connectedFiber opticsUnderground utilitiesIrrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residenceNew construction (projected completion August 7, 2026)One storySouth facingUnder construction
• Construction: Frame and other construction materialsShingle roofSlab foundationBuilder: Lennar Homes (model: Gehrig)
• Exterior features: PatioPorchSliding doorsPaved, private lotStreet lights (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinetsKitchen/family room combo
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air
• Interior features: In-wall pest systemKitchen and family room comboOpen floorplanSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinetsThermostatWalk-in closetsThermal windowsSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundryWasherDryerInside utility room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-20
   days on market $254,990 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-08-19
   days on market $254,990 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-08-18
   days on market $254,990 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-08-17
   days on market $254,990 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-08-16
   days on market $254,990 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-08-15
   days on market $254,990 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-08-14
   days on market $254,990 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-08-13
   days on market $254,990 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-08-12
   days on market $254,990 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-08-12
    price $254,990 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-08-11
    days on market $264,990 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-08-10
    days on market $264,990 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-08-09
    days on market $264,990 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-08-08
    days on market $264,990 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-08-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-08-06
    days on market $264,990 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-08-05
    days on market $264,990 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-08-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 60 DOM
19. 2026-08-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 59 DOM
20. 2026-07-31
    days on market $264,990 Active 56 DOM
21. 2026-07-30
    days on market $264,990 Active 55 DOM
22. 2026-07-30
    days on market $264,990 Active 54 DOM
23. 2026-07-28
    days on market $264,990 Active 53 DOM
24. 2026-07-26
    days on market $264,990 Active 51 DOM
25. 2026-07-24
    days on market $264,990 Active 49 DOM
26. 2026-07-23
    days on market $264,990 Active 48 DOM
27. 2026-07-22
    days on market $264,990 Active 47 DOM
28. 2026-07-21
    days on market $264,990 Active 46 DOM
29. 2026-07-19
    days on market $264,990 Active 43 DOM
30. 2026-07-18
    days on market $264,990 Active 42 DOM
31. 2026-07-16
    days on market $264,990 Active 41 DOM
32. 2026-07-15
    days on market $264,990 Active 40 DOM
33. 2026-07-14
    days on market $264,990 Active 39 DOM
34. 2026-07-13
    days on market $264,990 Active 38 DOM
35. 2026-07-12
    days on market $264,990 Active 37 DOM
36. 2026-07-11
    days on market $264,990 Active 36 DOM
37. 2026-07-09
    days on market $264,990 Active 34 DOM
38. 2026-07-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 32 DOM
39. 2026-07-06
    days on market $264,990 Active 31 DOM
40. 2026-07-05
    days on market $264,990 Active 30 DOM
41. 2026-07-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 28 DOM
42. 2026-07-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 27 DOM
43. 2026-07-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 26 DOM
44. 2026-06-30
    days on market $264,990 Active 25 DOM
45. 2026-06-29
    days on market $264,990 Active 24 DOM
46. 2026-06-28
    days on market $264,990 Active 23 DOM
47. 2026-06-28
    days on market $264,990 Active 22 DOM
48. 2026-06-27
    days on market $264,990 Active 21 DOM
49. 2026-06-25
    days on market $264,990 Active 19 DOM
50. 2026-06-23
    days on market $264,990 Active 17 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,178
• − Insurance: −$1,393
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,974
• − Management: −$1,974
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$8,103
• Taxable loss: −$9,328
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,239
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is under construction and is in excellent condition. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates include painting, flooring, smart home technology, and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install new flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — New flooring improves functionality and appearance in high-traffic areas. ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features increase convenience and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances enhance functionality and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add landscaping features — Landscaping improvements can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Smart thermostat improves energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more potential buyers/renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 25/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Sandhill Elementary School F FL #1,932/2,144 Nat'l #27,846/41,679 Middle Lake Marion Creek Middle School F FL #522/571 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Haines City Senior High School F FL #544/667 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Dundee

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #638
• US rank: #12542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dundee, FL
• County: Polk · 752,975 people
• City population: 5,431
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,431
• Household income: $44,514
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 30% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 47%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 54.34%
• Current HPI: 363.9764
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,096Tax year information available
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $65 / annual $780)Association approval requiredAssociation includes pool; fee covers escrow reserves fund, grounds maintenance, and poolAssociation: Garrison Property Services / Amelisa KirklandPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18x20) with garage door openerDriveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable available and connectedElectricity available and connectedFiber opticsUnderground utilitiesIrrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residenceNew construction (projected completion August 7, 2026)One storySouth facingUnder construction
• Construction: Frame and other construction materialsShingle roofSlab foundationBuilder: Lennar Homes (model: Gehrig)
• Exterior features: PatioPorchSliding doorsPaved, private lotStreet lights (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinetsKitchen/family room combo
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air
• Interior features: In-wall pest systemKitchen and family room comboOpen floorplanSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinetsThermostatWalk-in closetsThermal windowsSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundryWasherDryerInside utility room

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $264,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-19 Price Changed $264,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $269,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $279,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-05 Listed $274,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-02 Listed $274,990 Zillow