22690 Hidden Hollow Rd · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 380 Days on market

Built 1992 9,583 sqft lot $112/sqft · 11% below area Est $209k · 11% under $192/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Only approx. 20 miles from YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK. Come and ENJOY this PEACEFUL and QUIET Neighborhood located in YOSEMITE VISTA ESTATES a SENIOR DEVELOPMENT 55 AND OLDER. The Roof was replaced in 2015 and the Trex Deck was built in 2022. It has all the conveniences of home with Refrigerator, Microwave, Dishwasher, Disposal and a separate Laundry room with Washer & Dryer included. An attached garage keeps you out of the elements when you arrive home. Come and ENJOY the CLUB HOUSE W/KITCHEN FACILITIES, PLUS BEAUTIFUL SWIMMING POOL. All this and just 7 miles from the HISTORICAL TOWN OF GROVELAND.

Key facts

• Attached garage
• Swimming pool
• Club house

Tags

• YOSEMITE VISTA ESTATES
• TREX DECK
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• CLUB HOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• HISTORICAL TOWN OF GROVELAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 380 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 380 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.12%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,742
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -11.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22608 Prospect Hts	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,635 (-1%)	7mo	$195,000	$119	87
22622 Whispering Pnes	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-3%)	23mo	$255,000	$159	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-7,565
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $22,513
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,516/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,729

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $455	-5% $403	+0% $351	+5% $298	+10% $246
Rent	-10% $179	-5% $265	+0% $351	+5% $436	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $444	-0.5pp $398	base $351	+0.5pp $303	+1.0pp $254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 380 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 379 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 378 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 377 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 376 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 374 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 373 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 370 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 369 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 368 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 367 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 647-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,000 Active 364 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 363 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 362 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 361 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 360 DOM
18. 2025-08-14
    price $185,000 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Only approx. 20 miles from YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK. Come and ENJOY this PEACEFUL and QUIET Neighborhood located in YOSEMITE VISTA ESTATES a SENIOR DEVELOPMENT 55 AND OLDER. The Roof was replaced in 2015 and the Trex Deck was built in 2022. It has all the conveniences of home with Refrigerator, Microwave, Dishwasher, Disposal and a separate Laundry room with Washer & Dryer included. An attached garage keeps you out of the elements when you arrive home. Come and ENJOY the CLUB HOUSE W/KITCHEN FACILITIES, PLUS BEAUTIFUL SWIMMING POOL. All this and just 7 miles from the HISTORICAL TOWN OF GROVELAND.

19. 2025-06-04
    listed $225,000 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Only approx. 20 miles from YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK. Come and ENJOY this PEACEFUL and QUIET Neighborhood located in YOSEMITE VISTA ESTATES a SENIOR DEVELOPMENT 55 AND OLDER. The Roof was replaced in 2015 and the Trex Deck was built in 2022. It has all the conveniences of home with Refrigerator, Microwave, Dishwasher, Disposal and a separate Laundry room with Washer & Dryer included. An attached garage keeps you out of the elements when you arrive home. Come and ENJOY the CLUB HOUSE W/KITCHEN FACILITIES, PLUS BEAUTIFUL SWIMMING POOL. All this and just 7 miles from the HISTORICAL TOWN OF GROVELAND.

20. 2002-07-17
    soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,516 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,516 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,516
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,085
• − Management: −$2,085
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,407
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$338
• After-tax cash flow: $3,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+37.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $185,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-06-04 Listed $225,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2002-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,516 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.