130 Smith St · Au Sable, MI 48750

$118,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1953 10,019 sqft lot $154/sqft · at area comps Est $116k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and conveniently located, this 2-bedroom, 1-full-bath home is situated on two lots in AuSable, offering extra space and added potential. Tucked away on a quiet street, the property features a welcoming layout with bright living areas and a functional floor plan ideal for year-round living, a weekend retreat, or an investment opportunity. The home includes two comfortably sized bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a cozy living area perfect for relaxing after a day at the lake or river. The expansive double-lot setting provides ample outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, recreation, or future possibilities. Located just minutes from downtown Oscoda, Lake Huron beaches, the Au Sable River, parks, shopping, and dining, this property combines small-town charm with access to Northern Michigans best outdoor amenities. Whether youre looking for a primary residence, vacation home, or investment property, this home offers location, space, and potential.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Two lots
• Outdoor space

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• QUIET STREET
• BRIGHT LIVING AREAS
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• EXPANSIVE DOUBLE-LOT SETTING
• OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.1% in Au Sable — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#449 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Oscoda Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #313 of 540 in MI (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 58 units permitted in Iosco County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Iosco County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,786
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: 1.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
398 First St	0.24mi	2/1.0	768 (0%)	13mo	$94,000	$122	78
310 Smith St	0.27mi	2/1.0	780 (+2%)	15mo	$96,000	$123	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,328
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $15,159
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48750

• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $565/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $905

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 S State St Oscoda, MI	1.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.79mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $118,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $118,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $118,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $118,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $118,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $118,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-01-10
    listed $118,000 Active 968-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1008 chars)

    Charming and conveniently located, this 2-bedroom, 1-full-bath home is situated on two lots in AuSable, offering extra space and added potential. Tucked away on a quiet street, the property features a welcoming layout with bright living areas and a functional floor plan ideal for year-round living, a weekend retreat, or an investment opportunity. The home includes two comfortably sized bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a cozy living area perfect for relaxing after a day at the lake or river. The expansive double-lot setting provides ample outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, recreation, or future possibilities. Located just minutes from downtown Oscoda, Lake Huron beaches, the Au Sable River, parks, shopping, and dining, this property combines small-town charm with access to Northern Michigan’s best outdoor amenities. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, vacation home, or investment property, this home offers location, space, and potential.

17. 2026-01-10
    listed $118,000 Active 1008-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1008 chars)

    Charming and conveniently located, this 2-bedroom, 1-full-bath home is situated on two lots in AuSable, offering extra space and added potential. Tucked away on a quiet street, the property features a welcoming layout with bright living areas and a functional floor plan ideal for year-round living, a weekend retreat, or an investment opportunity. The home includes two comfortably sized bedrooms, one full bathroom, and a cozy living area perfect for relaxing after a day at the lake or river. The expansive double-lot setting provides ample outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, recreation, or future possibilities. Located just minutes from downtown Oscoda, Lake Huron beaches, the Au Sable River, parks, shopping, and dining, this property combines small-town charm with access to Northern Michigan’s best outdoor amenities. Whether you’re looking for a primary residence, vacation home, or investment property, this home offers location, space, and potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $565 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,191 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$626/yr (+$52/mo · 110.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$565
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $898
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$216
• After-tax cash flow: $2,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oscoda Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626970
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,275
• Composite: 28.6/100
• National rank: #6714
• State rank: #313 of 540 in MI

Livability — Au Sable

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #449
• US rank: #12590

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Au Sable, MI
• Population (ZIP): 9,281

Population outlook (Iosco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,366 people
• By 2030: 23,622 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 22,021 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 20,877 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 18,792 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 15,465 · -36.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Iosco

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.6) · D 34.0% · R 64.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.7pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -30.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.6 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+30.0 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.75%
• Current HPI: 157.6759
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-10 Listed $118,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-10 Listed $118,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $565 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.