7954 Birch Bay Dr #24 · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 528 sqft · Manufactured public records

Manufactured home Built 1970 Fair condition $142/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.3

Listing remarks

Coastal Living Just Steps from the Water! This charming single-wide manufactured home in Birch Bay offers an unbeatable location and relaxed beachside lifestyle. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, the home feels open and airy with vaulted ceilings and a comfortable, functional layout with a new ductless heat pump and new carpet in the living room. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets from the covered porch and take advantage of the storage shed for all your beach gear. Located directly across the street from Birch Bay, you’ll have steps-away beach access and water enjoyment right at your doorstep.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Storage shed
• Beach access

Tags

• BEACH ACCESS
• COVERED PORCH
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 2.9% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 650 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.19%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,500
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -50.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8080 Harborview Rd Unit M159	0.12mi	2/1.0	528 (0%)	4mo	$20,000	$38	91
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #51	0.41mi	2/1.0	536 (+2%)	10mo	$149,900	$280	70
4751 Birch Bay Lynden #129	0.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	570 (+8%)	4mo	$240,000	$421	67
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #99	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	540 (+2%)	13mo	$193,500	$358	66
8080 Harborview Rd Unit F91	0.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	560 (+6%)	12mo	$75,000	$134	63
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #256	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	550 (+4%)	15mo	$250,000	$455	61
8080 Harborview Rd Rd Unit F110	0.16mi	2/1.0	595 (+13%)	13mo	$70,000	$118	60
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #2	0.40mi	1/1.0 (-1)	531 (+1%)	20mo	$125,000	$235	59
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #236	0.31mi	1/1.0 (-1)	580 (+10%)	16mo	$240,000	$414	51
5028 Maple St	0.75mi	2/1.0	576 (+9%)	4mo	$159,000	$276	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $66,677
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.44×
• Total profit: $177,157
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 0.9 mo (117%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $208,000 ($523/sqft)
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -45.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 650
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $187/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $442	-5% $421	+0% $399	+5% $378	+10% $357
Rent	-10% $273	-5% $336	+0% $399	+5% $463	+10% $526
Rate	-1.0pp $437	-0.5pp $418	base $399	+0.5pp $380	+1.0pp $360

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7954 Birch Bay Dr Blaine, WA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,450	$2.23	6d	1	0.03mi
4973 Cottonwood Ct #8 Blaine, WA	2.0	1.0	550	$2,850	$5.18	0d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-21
   days on market $75,000 Active
2. 2026-09-20
   days on market $75,000 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-09-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-09-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-09-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-09-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-09-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-09-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 227 DOM
9. 2026-09-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 226 DOM
10. 2026-09-11
    days on market $75,000 Active 225 DOM
11. 2026-09-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 219 DOM
12. 2026-09-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 218 DOM
13. 2026-09-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 217 DOM
14. 2026-08-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 214 DOM
15. 2026-08-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 213 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $75,000 Active 212 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $75,000 Active 211 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $75,000 Active 210 DOM
19. 2026-08-25
    days on market $75,000 Active 208 DOM
20. 2026-08-24
    days on market $75,000 Active 207 DOM
21. 2026-08-23
    days on market $75,000 Active 206 DOM
22. 2026-08-22
    days on market $75,000 Active 205 DOM
23. 2026-08-21
    days on market $75,000 Active 204 DOM
24. 2026-08-20
    days on market $75,000 Active 203 DOM
25. 2026-08-19
    days on market $75,000 Active 202 DOM
26. 2026-08-18
    days on market $75,000 Active 201 DOM
27. 2026-08-17
    days on market $75,000 Active 200 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $75,000 Active 199 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $75,000 Active 198 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $75,000 Active 197 DOM
31. 2026-08-13
    days on market $75,000 Active 196 DOM
32. 2026-08-12
    days on market $75,000 Active 195 DOM
33. 2026-08-11
    days on market $75,000 Active 194 DOM
34. 2026-08-10
    days on market $75,000 Active 193 DOM
35. 2026-08-09
    days on market $75,000 Active 192 DOM
36. 2026-08-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 191 DOM
37. 2026-08-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 190 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $75,000 Active 189 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 188 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 187 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 186 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 183 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 182 DOM
44. 2026-07-29
    days on market $75,000 Active 181 DOM
45. 2026-07-27
    days on market $75,000 Active 179 DOM
46. 2026-07-25
    days on market $75,000 Active 177 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $75,000 Active 175 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $75,000 Active 174 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $75,000 Active 173 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $75,000 Active 170 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $187 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $735 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$548/yr (+$46/mo · 292.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$187
• − Insurance: −$5,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,090
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$981
• After-tax cash flow: $3,810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,640–$7,920 screening

This manufactured home requires cosmetic repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. Painting the interior walls and replacing the exterior siding and roof would be the most impactful updates.

Deferred maintenance Est. $70,000–$210,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No roof visible
• Major Hvac (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No HVAC visible
• Major Windows (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No windows visible
• Major Electrical (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No electrical panel visible
• Major Plumbing (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No plumbing visible
• Major Exterior (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No exterior visible
• Major Other (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No other components visible

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — The siding is visibly weathered and may need to be replaced or repaired.
• Major roof — The roof shows signs of wear and tear, indicating a potential need for replacement.
• Minor flooring — The carpeted flooring can be cleaned or replaced, but it is not a major issue.
• Major interior walls — The peeling paint and structural issues on the interior walls require attention.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Refreshing the interior walls with fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Replacing exterior siding — A new exterior siding can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Re-roofing — A new roof can improve the home's structural integrity and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blaine Primary School Middle Blaine Middle School High Blaine High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 240,408 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $75,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-15 Sold (MLS) $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-22 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-22 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-07 Listed $75,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $187 · +383.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.