7954 Birch Bay Dr #24 · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$75,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 528 sqft · Manufactured public records · 191 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1970 Fair condition $142/sqft · 49% below area Est $148k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.9

Listing remarks

Coastal Living Just Steps from the Water! This charming single-wide manufactured home in Birch Bay offers an unbeatable location and relaxed beachside lifestyle. Featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, the home feels open and airy with vaulted ceilings and a comfortable, functional layout with a new ductless heat pump and new carpet in the living room. Enjoy morning coffee or evening sunsets from the covered porch and take advantage of the storage shed for all your beach gear. Located directly across the street from Birch Bay, you’ll have steps-away beach access and water enjoyment right at your doorstep.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Storage shed
• Beach access

Tags

• BEACH ACCESS
• COVERED PORCH
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.32%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,967
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -49.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8080 Harborview Rd Unit M159	0.12mi	2/1.0	528 (0%)	3mo	$20,000	$38	92
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #51	0.41mi	2/1.0	536 (+2%)	9mo	$149,900	$280	71
8080 Harborview Rd	0.18mi	2/1.0	530 (+0%)	24mo	$15,000	$28	71
4751 Birch Bay Lynden #129	0.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	570 (+8%)	3mo	$240,000	$421	68
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #99	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	540 (+2%)	11mo	$193,500	$358	67
8080 Harborview Rd Unit F91	0.25mi	1/1.0 (-1)	560 (+6%)	11mo	$75,000	$134	64
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #256	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	550 (+4%)	13mo	$250,000	$455	62
8080 Harborview Rd Rd Unit F110	0.16mi	2/1.0	595 (+13%)	12mo	$70,000	$118	62
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #2	0.40mi	1/1.0 (-1)	531 (+1%)	18mo	$125,000	$235	60
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #236	0.31mi	1/1.0 (-1)	580 (+10%)	15mo	$240,000	$414	52
5028 Maple St	0.75mi	2/1.0	576 (+9%)	2mo	$159,000	$276	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $60,116
• Equity at exit: $67,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.76×
• Total profit: $162,954
• Equity at exit: $145,709

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.4 mo (42%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $120,500 ($303/sqft)
• Median days on market: 89 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -7.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,472 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $187/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,097

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $339	-5% $318	+0% $297	+5% $275	+10% $254
Rent	-10% $180	-5% $238	+0% $297	+5% $355	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $316	base $297	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $257

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $75,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $75,000 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $75,000 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $75,000 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $75,000 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $75,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $75,000 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $75,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $75,000 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $75,000 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $75,000 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $75,000 Active 170 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $75,000 Active 168 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $75,000 Active 167 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $75,000 Active 166 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $75,000 Active 165 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $75,000 Active 164 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $75,000 Active 163 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $75,000 Active 162 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $75,000 Active 161 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 160 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 159 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $75,000 Active 158 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 157 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 156 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 155 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 154 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 153 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 152 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $75,000 Active 151 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $75,000 Active 150 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $75,000 Active 149 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $75,000 Active 148 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $75,000 Active 146 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $75,000 Active 144 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $75,000 Active 143 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $75,000 Active 140 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $75,000 Active 139 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $75,000 Active 138 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $75,000 Active 137 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $75,000 Active 135 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $75,000 Active 134 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $75,000 Active 132 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $75,000 Active 131 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 130 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 129 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 126 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $187 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $735 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$548/yr (+$46/mo · 292.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$187
• − Insurance: −$5,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,414
• − Management: −$1,414
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,778
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$667
• After-tax cash flow: $2,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $2,640–$7,920 screening

This manufactured home requires cosmetic repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. Painting the interior walls and replacing the exterior siding and roof would be the most impactful updates.

Deferred maintenance Est. $70,000–$210,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No roof visible
• Major Hvac (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No HVAC visible
• Major Windows (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No windows visible
• Major Electrical (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No electrical panel visible
• Major Plumbing (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No plumbing visible
• Major Exterior (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No exterior visible
• Major Other (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — No other components visible

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — The siding is visibly weathered and may need to be replaced or repaired.
• Major roof — The roof shows signs of wear and tear, indicating a potential need for replacement.
• Minor flooring — The carpeted flooring can be cleaned or replaced, but it is not a major issue.
• Major interior walls — The peeling paint and structural issues on the interior walls require attention.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Refreshing the interior walls with fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Replacing exterior siding — A new exterior siding can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Re-roofing — A new roof can improve the home's structural integrity and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blaine Primary School Middle Blaine Middle School High Blaine High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 240,408 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $75,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-15 Sold (MLS) $65,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-22 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-22 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-07 Listed $75,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $187 · +383.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.