29 Lexington Dr · Fairview Heights, IL 62208

$94,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1985

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Roof, New siding, New Windows, New Egress Windows

Key facts

• New siding
• New egress windows
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW EGRESS WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $794 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 4.1% in Fairview Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#225 in IL, #4,180 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.88%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $35,269
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.62×
• Total profit: $96,060
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62208

• Home prices YoY: -34.2%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,813/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $794

Break-even live

Break-even rent $871

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $848	-5% $821	+0% $794	+5% $768	+10% $741
Rent	-10% $646	-5% $720	+0% $794	+5% $869	+10% $943
Rate	-1.0pp $842	-0.5pp $819	base $794	+0.5pp $770	+1.0pp $745

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
863 Harbor Woods Dr Fairview Heights, IL	3.0	2.5	998	$2,550	$2.56	2d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $94,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $94,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $94,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $94,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-22
    listed $94,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,813 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$170/yr (+$14/mo · 9.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,813
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $8,555
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,053
• After-tax cash flow: $7,480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1705640
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,064
• Composite: 22.39/100
• National rank: #8115
• State rank: #308 of 620 in IL

Livability — Fairview Heights

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #4180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairview Heights, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 16,821
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 16,821
• Household income: $80,205
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 555.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 33% Two or more races 11% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.14%
• Current HPI: 136.8631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $94,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,813 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.