9 E Cradle Rock Rd · Stamford, CT 10576

$625,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1962 3.12 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on just over three acres with a natural setting in the heart of Pound Ridge, this mid-century modern residence has been cherished by the same family for more than twenty-five years. Tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, the home offers exceptional privacy and a serene natural setting. This single-level, three-bedroom home presents a rare opportunity to reimagine and elevate a classic design. The spacious living room, anchored by a fireplace, opens seamlessly to an expansive deck overlooking wooded surroundings—perfect for indoor-outdoor living. The kitchen is separate but opens to the dining area, which in turn flows into the cathedral ceilinged living room. The ensuit

Key facts

• Wooded surroundings
• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Exceptional privacy

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• EXCEPTIONAL PRIVACY
• EXPANSIVE DECK
• WOODED SURROUNDINGS
• ENSUITE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $625k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($23k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $625k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.0% in Stamford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#98 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Bedford Central School District (rural): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #211 of 590 in NY (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pound Ridge Elementary School (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B, #591 of 2,108 statewide, top 31%, 238 students, 10% FRL); Fox Lane Middle School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade C-, #300 of 729 statewide, top 41%, 765 students, 38% FRL); Fox Lane High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 1,241 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 10% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $175k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $338k; list at $625k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $625,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.13%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.84% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $225,206
• Equity at exit: $310,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $597,128
• Equity at exit: $503,991

Cash invested: $175,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10576

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,337 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,278
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$260
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,541
• Net cashflow: $1,914

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,914

Max offer price $625,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,268	-5% $2,091	+0% $1,914	+5% $1,737	+10% $1,560
Rent	-10% $1,335	-5% $1,624	+0% $1,914	+5% $2,204	+10% $2,494
Rate	-1.0pp $2,229	-0.5pp $2,073	base $1,914	+0.5pp $1,752	+1.0pp $1,587

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $156,250
• Closing costs: $18,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 S Bedford Rd Pound Ridge, NY	3.0	3.0	1894	$7,250	$3.83	3d	1	0.75mi
9 Cedar Hill Ln Pound Ridge, NY	3.0	2.5	2309	$7,495	$3.25	11d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $625,000 Active
3. 1999-04-07
   soldstatus $338,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,125 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,750 · $729/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,625/yr (+$385/mo · 112.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $88,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,010
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$3,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,043
• − Management: −$7,043
• − Depreciation: −$18,182
• Taxable income: $13,511
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,243
• After-tax cash flow: $19,727/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619950
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $98,055
• Composite: 53.17/100
• National rank: #1508
• State rank: #211 of 590 in NY

Livability — Stamford

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #7716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 123,058
• Population (ZIP): 4,904

Population outlook (Westchester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,028,035 people
• By 2030: 1,051,636 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 1,098,520 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 1,136,044 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 1,196,925 · +16.4%
• By 2100: 1,175,147 · +14.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Westchester

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.3) · D 63.1% · R 36.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 27.6pp · 2024: 26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.3 2020: D+36.3 2016: D+32.8 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.84%
• Current HPI: 239.5803
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+84.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $338,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,125 · -47.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.