45 Kail St · Buffalo, NY 14207

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 818 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1900 2,500 sqft lot $67/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller began remodeling with an open concept in mind. Roof is one yr old. New HWT. Some new windows. A complete rehab at a great price in Black Rock. Seller will remove all building materials and debris before closing.

Key facts

• Open concept
• Complete rehab
• New hwt

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• NEW HWT
• COMPLETE REHAB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $662 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.7% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($40k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.56%
• DSCR: 3.29
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,137
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -59.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Howell St	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	818 (0%)	13mo	$185,000	$226	65
139 Howell St	0.40mi	2/1.0	743 (-9%)	19mo	$140,000	$188	50
123 Hawley St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	930 (+14%)	13mo	$191,000	$205	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $39,842
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.73×
• Total profit: $119,050
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14207

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $202/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $415

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $693	-5% $677	+0% $662	+5% $646	+10% $631
Rent	-10% $563	-5% $612	+0% $662	+5% $711	+10% $761
Rate	-1.0pp $689	-0.5pp $676	base $662	+0.5pp $647	+1.0pp $633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68 Peter St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	24d	1	0.32mi
155 Germain St Apt 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	11d	1	0.32mi
215 Thompson St Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	4d	1	0.37mi
72 Reservation St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	24d	1	0.48mi
1920 Niagara St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	695	$999	$1.44	45d	1	0.50mi
336 East St Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	795	$1,000	$1.26	15d	1	0.51mi
356 Hertel Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.5	800	$2,300	$2.88	3d	1	0.58mi
2099 Niagara St Unit A Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,197	$1.20	45d	1	0.63mi
46 Hawley St #1 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	45d	1	0.64mi
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$640	$0.49	3d	14	0.64mi
68 Laforce Pl Unit U Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,099	$1.22	45d	1	0.75mi
293 Grote St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	817	$2,345	$2.87	3d	1	0.75mi
118 Rano St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	22d	1	0.76mi
1558 Elmwood Ave Unit 4 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	45d	1	0.77mi
37 Holmes St Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,095	$1.22	15d	1	0.85mi
15 Ontario St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	3d	1	0.86mi
57 Abbottsford Pl Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	24d	1	0.89mi
309 Bird Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	45d	1	0.91mi
30 Abbottsford Pl Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$1,100	$1.83	3d	1	0.93mi
1485 Niagara St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	925	$2,174	$2.35	3d	1	0.93mi
865 Richmond Ave Unit Rear Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	45d	1	1.02mi
1116 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	45d	1	1.11mi
163 W Delavan Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	24d	1	1.12mi
239 Crowley Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	966	$1,025	$1.06	4d	1	1.12mi
466 W Delavan Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	45d	1	1.23mi
1015 Elmwood Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	45d	1	1.26mi
1015 Elmwood Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	45d	1	1.26mi
257 Lafayette Ave Unit 317 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	897	$1,400	$1.56	24d	1	1.28mi
257 Lafayette Ave Apt 319 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,395	$1.55	24d	1	1.28mi
116 Bidwell Pkwy Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	550	$1,375	$2.50	4d	3	1.29mi
2002 Delaware Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	675	$1,125	$1.67	45d	1	1.32mi
2002 Delaware Ave Unit 4 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	725	$1,250	$1.72	45d	1	1.32mi
134 Philadelphia St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	871	$1,100	$1.26	4d	1	1.33mi
15 Beatrice Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	15d	1	1.33mi
1998 Delaware Ave Unit 5 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	675	$1,125	$1.67	24d	1	1.33mi
1998 Delaware Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	675	$1,125	$1.67	45d	1	1.33mi
2022 Delaware Ave Unit 5 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	725	$1,250	$1.72	45d	1	1.33mi
1982 Delaware Ave Unit 5 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	725	$1,250	$1.72	45d	1	1.33mi
136 Parkdale Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	45d	1	1.33mi
196 Auburn Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $55,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-02-05
    listed $55,000 Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    Seller began remodeling with an open concept in mind. Roof is one yr old. New HWT. Some new windows. A complete rehab at a great price in Black Rock. Seller will remove all building materials and debris before closing.

16. 2025-09-29
    historical
17. 2025-07-07
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $202 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $566 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 180.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 62% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$202
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,203
• − Management: −$1,203
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $7,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,793
• After-tax cash flow: $6,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,327
• Household income: $39,753
• Rent vs Own: 65.0% rent · 35.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2177.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 16% Asian 15% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 18% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Portuguese 1% Arab 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.42%
• Current HPI: 233.0902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $55,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $55,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $202 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.