1512 Route 9 · Stottville, NY 12173

$255,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1965 0.55 ac lot Est $262k · at est. ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

solid brick home with nice flat back yard. Private setting. Walk into basement with half bath from outside patio area. Hardwood under carpets in bedrooms. Hallway overlooks living area with pellet stove. Ichabod Crane Schools. Basement walls are studded and ready for sheetrock to make office, gym or more living space.

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• 6 parking spots
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($48/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,070 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Kinderhook Central School District (rural): math 49% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #294 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $223,571 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
250 State Route 9J	0.68mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,848 (-3%)	23mo	$255,000	$138	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $139,166
• Equity at exit: $229,724

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.74×
• Total profit: $409,690
• Equity at exit: $495,409

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12173

• Home prices YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$319 /mo · $3,825/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,231

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $180	-5% $92	+0% $4	+5% $-84	+10% $-172
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-84	+0% $4	+5% $92	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $69	base $4	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2023-03-29
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   solid brick home with nice flat back yard. Private setting. Walk into basement with half bath from outside patio area. Hardwood under carpets in bedrooms. Hallway overlooks living area with pellet stove. Ichabod Crane Schools. Basement walls are studded and ready for sheetrock to make office, gym or more living space.

2. 2023-03-29
   status Pending 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   solid brick home with nice flat back yard. Private setting. Walk into basement with half bath from outside patio area. Hardwood under carpets in bedrooms. Hallway overlooks living area with pellet stove. Ichabod Crane Schools. Basement walls are studded and ready for sheetrock to make office, gym or more living space.

3. 2022-02-18
   historical
4. 2022-02-09
   historical 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   solid brick home with nice flat back yard. Private setting. Walk into basement with half bath from outside patio area. Hardwood under carpets in bedrooms. Hallway overlooks living area with pellet stove. Ichabod Crane Schools. Basement walls are studded and ready for sheetrock to make office, gym or more living space.

5. 2021-12-17
   soldstatus $247,500 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Solid brick home with nice flat yard. Great light. Private setting. Walk into basement with half bath from outside patio area. Walls are studded ready for Sheetrock to make office area, business, or gym. Three bedroomsIwith hardwood under carpet. Hallway overlooks living area with brick pellet stove to take the chill off. Ichabod Crane School system. Close to all shopping North and South. Amtrak is 15 minutes away and all that Hudson has to offer plus the new business area in Kinderhook.

6. 2021-10-14
   listed $255,000
7. 2021-10-08
   listed $255,000 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   solid brick home with nice flat back yard. Private setting. Walk into basement with half bath from outside patio area. Hardwood under carpets in bedrooms. Hallway overlooks living area with pellet stove. Ichabod Crane Schools. Basement walls are studded and ready for sheetrock to make office, gym or more living space.

8. 2021-09-28
   listed $255,000 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   Solid brick home with nice flat yard. Great light. Private setting. Walk into basement with half bath from outside patio area. Walls are studded ready for Sheetrock to make office area, business, or gym. Three bedroomsIwith hardwood under carpet. Hallway overlooks living area with brick pellet stove to take the chill off. Ichabod Crane School system. Close to all shopping North and South. Amtrak is 15 minutes away and all that Hudson has to offer plus the new business area in Kinderhook.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,825
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,146
• − Management: −$2,146
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,266
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,024
• After-tax cash flow: $1,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kinderhook Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615210
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $68,409
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2223
• State rank: #294 of 590 in NY

Livability — Stottville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1070
• US rank: #21454

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 184
• Population (ZIP): 2,040

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 12% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.11%
• Current HPI: 393.6279
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2023-03-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2023-03-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2022-02-18 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2022-02-09 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2021-12-17 Sold (MLS) $247,500 HVCRMLS
• 2021-10-14 Listed $255,000 Global MLS
• 2021-10-08 Listed $255,000 Global MLS
• 2021-09-28 Listed $255,000 HVCRMLS