13051 Ritz-carlton Highlands Dr Unit 4405 Share 17 · Tahoe Vista, CA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 7/10 · Major
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $659 – $1,223
Heat risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 82°F)
- 6 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 14 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 7/10 · Major
- Unhealthy air days now
- 14 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Appreciation +5.0/10.0
- Schools +4.4/10.0
- Livability +2.6/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Cash flow +0.0/30.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
$55,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Own a Slice of Luxury: Ski-In/Ski-Out Haven at Northstar – 2 preset weeks each year, plus a float week and per diem use in this stunning 3 bedroom, 3.5 bath luxury residence overlooking the ski runs and surrounding mountains. Upcoming booked dates are: Jan 31- Feb 7 , 2026, Dec 26, 2026 - Jan 2, 2027, Feb 6-13, 2027. Elevate your vacations with deeded ownership in the Ritz-Carlton Destination Club, offering unparalleled ski-in/ski-out convenience at Lake Tahoe’s premier Northstar resort. Indulge in the perfect blend of privacy, 5-star service, and world-class amenities. Ownership also grants access to 5 other Ritz-Carlton Clubs and the global Ritz-Carlton hotel network, enhancing your travels with exclusive privileges, discounts, and per diem rates. This is more than vacation homeownership—it’s a lifestyle of exclusivity, tailored concierge services, and unforgettable family vacations. Club overview package available and includes access to Aspen, Vail, St. Thomas, SF, and all Ritz Hotels worldwide. •Private Owners Lounge with complimentary refreshments throughout the day • The Ritz-Carlton Highlands Spa featuring 17,000 sf of pampering • Pools, whirlpool tubs, and fire pits • Private fitness center • Fine dining at Manzanita, the resort’s signature restaurant • Free Gondola Rides direct to Northstar Village from the front door • Ritz Kids program offers fun forages 5-12 Lake Tahoe Residence Features • Three bedroom, 3.5 bath Residence • Sought after residence with sweeping views of Martis Valley and gondola • Full, gourmet kitchens with granite countertops and Viking appliances • South-facing living room with gas fireplace and balcony • Spacious master suites and bathrooms, accompanied by walk-in closets •Flat Screen TV’s, DVD and CD players with surround sound • Bose surround sound • Wine Refrigerator • Washer/Dryer •Heat/ Airconditioning with controls • Elegant designer furnishings and housewares • Custom cabinetry and woodwork throughout •Italian-marble heated bath floors • Double-paned windows for sound minimization • High speed internet Additional On-site Conveniences• Dedicated, on-site Club Concierge • Private, secure parking garage on the property • 24hour security service• Storage of ski equipment and other personal items year round in secure, air conditioned member storage area •Complimentary valet parking and heated garage for one vehicle • In-residence ski equipment fittings available with Ski Butlers • At your service ski valet and overnight ski tuning • Pre-arrival provisioning and grocery shopping • Twice-daily housekeeping • Private chef services available • Room service available
Key facts
- Free gondola rides
- Deeded ownership
- Garage
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath timeshare listed at $55k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
- Rent doesn't cover operating costs at any purchase price — skip.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
- Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate -30.8% vs local median 1.7% in Tahoe Vista — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,011 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
- Tahoe-Truckee Unified (town): math 44% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #136 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Truckee Elementary (math 33% / reading 45%, grade F, #656 of 1,571 statewide, top 42%, 451 students, 52% FRL); Alder Creek Middle (math 41% / reading 54%, grade C-, #113 of 498 statewide, top 23%, 538 students, 26% FRL); Tahoe Truckee High (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 890 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
- Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 182% of rent.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 2.33% ✓
- Cap rate
- -30.78%
- Cash-on-cash
- -132.42%
- DSCR
- -4.89
- GRM
- 3.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $128,705
- List price
- $55,000
- Delta
- -57.27%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Projected returns pro-forma
3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- -5.50×
- Total profit
- $-100,153
- Equity at exit
- $24,730
- IRR
- -70.5%
- Equity multiple
- -12.17×
- Total profit
- $-202,850
- Equity at exit
- $38,112
Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 96161-0000
- Active inventory
- 55
- Price-to-rent
- 3.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,282 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$288
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$69 /mo · $825/yr
- Insurance
- −$23
- HOA
- −$2,332
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$269
- Net cashflow
- $-1,699
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-1,661 | -5% $-1,680 | +0% $-1,699 | +5% $-1,718 | +10% $-1,737 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-1,801 | -5% $-1,750 | +0% $-1,699 | +5% $-1,649 | +10% $-1,598 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-1,672 | -0.5pp $-1,685 | base $-1,699 | +0.5pp $-1,714 | +1.0pp $-1,728 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $13,750
- Closing costs
- $1,650
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $2,332 · $27,984/yr
- Likely covers
- gasinternetpoolgymdoormansecurity
Listing history 26 events
-
2026-06-21days on market $55,000 Active 152 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $55,000 Active 149 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $55,000 Active 148 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $55,000 Active 147 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $55,000 Active 146 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $55,000 Active 144 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $55,000 Active 141 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $55,000 Active 140 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $55,000 Active 139 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $55,000 Active 138 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $55,000 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $55,000 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $55,000 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $55,000 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $55,000 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $55,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-03-30price $55,000 2846-char remark
Show marketing remark (2846 chars)
Own a Slice of Luxury: Ski-In/Ski-Out Haven at Northstar – 2 preset weeks each year, plus a float week and per diem use in this stunning 3 bedroom, 3.5 bath luxury residence overlooking the ski runs and surrounding mountains. Upcoming booked dates are: Jan 31- Feb 7 , 2026, Dec 26, 2026 - Jan 2, 2027, Feb 6-13, 2027. Elevate your vacations with deeded ownership in the Ritz-Carlton Destination Club, offering unparalleled ski-in/ski-out convenience at Lake Tahoe’s premier Northstar resort. Indulge in the perfect blend of privacy, 5-star service, and world-class amenities. Ownership also grants access to 5 other Ritz-Carlton Clubs and the global Ritz-Carlton hotel network, enhancing your travels with exclusive privileges, discounts, and per diem rates. This is more than vacation homeownership—it’s a lifestyle of exclusivity, tailored concierge services, and unforgettable family vacations. Club overview package available and includes access to Aspen, Vail, St. Thomas, SF, and all Ritz Hotels worldwide. •Private Owners Lounge with complimentary refreshments throughout the day • The Ritz-Carlton Highlands Spa featuring 17,000 sf of pampering • Pools, whirlpool tubs, and fire pits • Private fitness center • Fine dining at Manzanita, the resort’s signature restaurant • Free Gondola Rides direct to Northstar Village from the front door • Ritz Kids program offers fun forages 5-12 Lake Tahoe Residence Features • Three bedroom, 3.5 bath Residence • Sought after residence with sweeping views of Martis Valley and gondola • Full, gourmet kitchens with granite countertops and Viking appliances • South-facing living room with gas fireplace and balcony • Spacious master suites and bathrooms, accompanied by walk-in closets •Flat Screen TV’s, DVD and CD players with surround sound • Bose surround sound • Wine Refrigerator • Washer/Dryer •Heat/ Airconditioning with controls • Elegant designer furnishings and housewares • Custom cabinetry and woodwork throughout •Italian-marble heated bath floors • Double-paned windows for sound minimization • High speed internet Additional On-site Conveniences• Dedicated, on-site Club Concierge • Private, secure parking garage on the property • 24hour security service• Storage of ski equipment and other personal items year round in secure, air conditioned member storage area •Complimentary valet parking and heated garage for one vehicle • In-residence ski equipment fittings available with Ski Butlers • At your service ski valet and overnight ski tuning • Pre-arrival provisioning and grocery shopping • Twice-daily housekeeping • Private chef services available • Room service available
-
2026-01-20$69,000 Active 2846-char remark
Show marketing remark (2846 chars)
Own a Slice of Luxury: Ski-In/Ski-Out Haven at Northstar – 2 preset weeks each year, plus a float week and per diem use in this stunning 3 bedroom, 3.5 bath luxury residence overlooking the ski runs and surrounding mountains. Upcoming booked dates are: Jan 31- Feb 7 , 2026, Dec 26, 2026 - Jan 2, 2027, Feb 6-13, 2027. Elevate your vacations with deeded ownership in the Ritz-Carlton Destination Club, offering unparalleled ski-in/ski-out convenience at Lake Tahoe’s premier Northstar resort. Indulge in the perfect blend of privacy, 5-star service, and world-class amenities. Ownership also grants access to 5 other Ritz-Carlton Clubs and the global Ritz-Carlton hotel network, enhancing your travels with exclusive privileges, discounts, and per diem rates. This is more than vacation homeownership—it’s a lifestyle of exclusivity, tailored concierge services, and unforgettable family vacations. Club overview package available and includes access to Aspen, Vail, St. Thomas, SF, and all Ritz Hotels worldwide. •Private Owners Lounge with complimentary refreshments throughout the day • The Ritz-Carlton Highlands Spa featuring 17,000 sf of pampering • Pools, whirlpool tubs, and fire pits • Private fitness center • Fine dining at Manzanita, the resort’s signature restaurant • Free Gondola Rides direct to Northstar Village from the front door • Ritz Kids program offers fun forages 5-12 Lake Tahoe Residence Features • Three bedroom, 3.5 bath Residence • Sought after residence with sweeping views of Martis Valley and gondola • Full, gourmet kitchens with granite countertops and Viking appliances • South-facing living room with gas fireplace and balcony • Spacious master suites and bathrooms, accompanied by walk-in closets •Flat Screen TV’s, DVD and CD players with surround sound • Bose surround sound • Wine Refrigerator • Washer/Dryer •Heat/ Airconditioning with controls • Elegant designer furnishings and housewares • Custom cabinetry and woodwork throughout •Italian-marble heated bath floors • Double-paned windows for sound minimization • High speed internet Additional On-site Conveniences• Dedicated, on-site Club Concierge • Private, secure parking garage on the property • 24hour security service• Storage of ski equipment and other personal items year round in secure, air conditioned member storage area •Complimentary valet parking and heated garage for one vehicle • In-residence ski equipment fittings available with Ski Butlers • At your service ski valet and overnight ski tuning • Pre-arrival provisioning and grocery shopping • Twice-daily housekeeping • Private chef services available • Room service available
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2025-08-24price $79,000
-
2024-12-26price $95,000
-
2021-03-18soldstatus $68,887 Sold
-
2021-03-12status Pending
-
2021-02-26historical Contingent
-
2021-01-15$50,000 Active
-
2020-02-03price $10,000
-
2017-04-27price $120,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 7/10 Severe
- Heat 1/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥82°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $15,384
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,081
- − Property taxes
- −$825
- − Insurance
- −$275
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,231
- − Management
- −$1,231
- − HOA
- −$27,984
- − Depreciation
- −$1,600
- Taxable loss
- −$20,842
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$5,002
- After-tax cash flow
- $-15,390/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Tahoe-Truckee Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0638770
- Math proficiency
- 44% ▼ -9.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 56% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $67,136
- Composite
- 44.38/100
- National rank
- #2816
- State rank
- #136 of 517 in CA
Livability — Tahoe Vista
- Score
- 52/100
- State rank
- #1011
- US rank
- #24918
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
No demographic data for this ZIP.
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- —
- Current HPI
- —
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
|
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| Retail | 3 | $44B |
|
||
| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
|
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| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
|
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| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
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Price history
-54.2% since first listed10 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-30 Price Changed $55,000 TSMLS
- 2026-01-20 Listed $69,000 TSMLS
- 2025-08-24 Price Changed $79,000 TSMLS
- 2024-12-26 Price Changed $95,000 TSMLS
- 2021-03-18 Sold (MLS) $68,887 TSMLS
- 2021-03-12 Pending — TSMLS
- 2021-02-26 Contingent — TSMLS
- 2021-01-15 Listed $50,000 TSMLS
- 2020-02-03 Price Changed $10,000 TSMLS
- 2017-04-27 Price Changed $120,000 TSMLS
Property tax history
+17.1%/yrLatest (2014): $27,709 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…