51 Gravel Hill Rd · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$869,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,282 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1965 0.31 ac lot $678/sqft · at area comps Est $932k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious & clean 3 bedroom/2.5 bath adorable ranch in the heart of Hampton Bays. Near schools, beaches, bay, restaurants, shopping - South of the Highway!! Great starter home or vacation home. Large bedrooms, primary en-suite, lots of closets, hardwood floors, all freshly painted and kept immaculate. Eat in kitchen with a separate dining room or sitting room, laundry room, living room, full basement (mother/daughter w/egress & separate entrance) On .31 acres with a deck & covered patio. One car garage with extra parking & a new driveway and a new roof. Being sold 'as is"...furnishings negotiable. Must see...it will not last!! Asking $869,000

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Near beaches

Tags

• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR BEACHES
• NEAR BAY
• NEAR RESTAURANTS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• EAT IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $869k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $869k).
• Recommended offer: $843k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 6.4% in Hampton Bays — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,360/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $243k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($843k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $297k; list at $869k implies a 193% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $842,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.28%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $932,497
• List price: $869,000
• Delta: -6.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42 Gravel Hill Rd	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (+4%)	21mo	$825,000	$616	67
6 Westerly Ct	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,276 (-0%)	6mo	$755,000	$592	64
39 Lynncliff Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,112 (-13%)	0mo	$790,000	$710	58
7 Harvard Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (-4%)	2mo	$815,000	$664	53
3 Fort Hill Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,256 (-2%)	6mo	$745,000	$593	52
10 Tramposh Ln	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+9%)	14mo	$710,000	$507	51
38 Woodridge Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-6%)	6mo	$825,000	$688	48
4 Holiday Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,097 (-14%)	6mo	$700,000	$638	46
104 Fanning Ave	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,138 (-11%)	19mo	$649,000	$570	44
94 Lynncliff Rd	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,130 (-12%)	19mo	$910,000	$805	36
18 Yale Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+12%)	14mo	$999,999	$693	33
18 Lovell Rd	0.75mi	3/1.5	1,100 (-14%)	12mo	$818,000	$744	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $41,098
• Equity at exit: $129,571

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $430,686
• Equity at exit: $75,135

Cash invested: $243,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,557
• Tax from tax record: −$391 /mo · $4,698/yr
• Insurance: −$362
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,966
• Net cashflow: $2,084

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,722

Max offer price $869,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,576	-5% $2,330	+0% $2,084	+5% $1,838	+10% $1,592
Rent	-10% $1,345	-5% $1,714	+0% $2,084	+5% $2,454	+10% $2,823
Rate	-1.0pp $2,522	-0.5pp $2,305	base $2,084	+0.5pp $1,859	+1.0pp $1,630

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $217,250
• Closing costs: $26,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37 Maryland Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1640	$20,000	$12.20	45d	1	0.24mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	7d	1	0.38mi
47 School St Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1700	$25,000	$14.71	45d	1	0.39mi
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$7,475	$4.32	1d	1	0.46mi
60 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$27,000	$17.58	45d	1	0.49mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	22d	1	0.52mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	26d	1	0.54mi
5 Ardmore Ct Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$28,000	$15.56	20d	1	0.58mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	26d	1	0.59mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	45d	1	0.61mi
38 Woodridge Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1398	$8,000	$5.72	26d	1	0.69mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	26d	1	0.84mi
41 Cormorant Dr Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1874	$25,000	$13.34	20d	1	0.84mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	26d	1	0.91mi
94 Bay Ave E Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1000	$20,000	$20.00	17d	1	0.95mi
6 Lynn Ct Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1212	$2,900	$2.39	45d	1	0.97mi
7 Huckleberry Ln Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.5	1608	$15,000	$9.33	1d	1	1.04mi
3 Foster Ave Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	45d	1	1.04mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	45d	1	1.11mi
10 Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	2.0	1560	$45,000	$28.85	26d	1	1.15mi
20A Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1073	$10,000	$9.32	16d	1	1.25mi
12 Ridge Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$20,000	$22.22	45d	1	1.25mi
229 Springville Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,000	$5.00	20d	1	1.29mi
3 Windmill Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	997	$5,500	$5.52	1d	1	1.38mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	45d	1	1.43mi
15 Gardners Ln Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1665	$30,000	$18.02	20d	1	1.45mi
35 Grant Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	4.0	3.0	1484	$35,000	$23.58	26d	1	1.45mi
21 Hillover Rd E Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1150	$34,000	$29.57	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   Spacious & clean 3 bedroom/2.5 bath adorable ranch in the heart of Hampton Bays. Near schools, beaches, bay, restaurants, shopping - South of the Highway!! Great starter home or vacation home. Large bedrooms, primary en-suite, lots of closets, hardwood floors, all freshly painted and kept immaculate. Eat in kitchen with a separate dining room or sitting room, laundry room, living room, full basement (mother/daughter w/egress & separate entrance) On .31 acres with a deck & covered patio. One car garage with extra parking & a new driveway and a new roof. Being sold 'as is"...furnishings negotiable. Must see...it will not last!! Asking $869,000

2. 2026-04-02
   listed $869,000 Active 670-char remark

   Show marketing remark (670 chars)

   Spacious & clean 3 bedroom/2.5 bath adorable ranch in the heart of Hampton Bays. Near schools, beaches, bay, restaurants, shopping - South of the Highway!! Great starter home or vacation home. Large bedrooms, primary en-suite, lots of closets, hardwood floors, all freshly painted and kept immaculate. Eat in kitchen with a separate dining room or sitting room, laundry room, living room, full basement (mother/daughter w/egress & separate entrance) On .31 acres with a deck & covered patio. One car garage with extra parking & a new driveway and a new roof. Being sold 'as is"...furnishings negotiable. Must see...it will not last!! Asking $869,000

3. 2013-07-15
   soldstatus $297,000
4. 2013-03-25
   soldstatus $297,000 454-char remark

   Show marketing remark (454 chars)

   Nestled Near The Heart Of Hampton Bays Shopping Sits This Sprawling Ranch With It's Gleaming Hardwoood Floors & Large Living Room. Boasting Oversize Newly Updated Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, Master Bedroom With 2 Closets & 1/2 Bath. 2nd Bedrm With Walk-In-Closet, 3rd Bedrm Large Closet & Full Bath. Full Finished Basement With Family Room, 2 Office Rooms & Ose. , Additional information: Appearance:Mint +++,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

5. 2012-08-01
   listed $319,000 454-char remark

   Show marketing remark (454 chars)

   Nestled Near The Heart Of Hampton Bays Shopping Sits This Sprawling Ranch With It's Gleaming Hardwoood Floors & Large Living Room. Boasting Oversize Newly Updated Kitchen, Formal Dining Room, Master Bedroom With 2 Closets & 1/2 Bath. 2nd Bedrm With Walk-In-Closet, 3rd Bedrm Large Closet & Full Bath. Full Finished Basement With Family Room, 2 Office Rooms & Ose. , Additional information: Appearance:Mint +++,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,698 · $391/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,692 · $808/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,994/yr (+$416/mo · 106.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $112,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$48,678
• − Property taxes: −$4,698
• − Insurance: −$4,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,986
• − Management: −$8,986
• − Depreciation: −$25,280
• Taxable income: $11,352
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,725
• After-tax cash flow: $22,284/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+172.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $869,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $297,000 Public Records
• 2013-03-25 Sold (MLS) $297,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-01 Listed $319,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,698 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.