152 Manistee Dr · Panama City Beach, FL 32413

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2000 8,973 sqft lot $223/sqft · 18% below area Est $366k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for affordability and convenience to everything the west end of the beach has to offer? This is IT! With paid for solar panels, you'll have super affordable electric bills. When you walk in the front door, you'll be greeted by an open and spacious living room/kitchen area complete with vaulted ceilings. The roomy master bedroom with walk in closet features an ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, separate shower and double sink vanity. HVAC was installed in November of 2018 and water heater with timer was installed in summer of 2018. Roof was done in 2015, so the home is truly ready for your cosmetic touches of perfection. There is a large screened porch for you to be able to enjoy your morning coffee. With direct access to Hwy 79, you truly have the best of both worlds with being right by the beach, nearby to 30A and easy access to the airport. No HOA neighborhood is another plus and there is plenty of space to add a pool. Estate sale is coming, so let your agent know if you are interested in purchasing items. Make this home yours today!

Key facts

• Separate shower
• Walk in closet
• Jetted tub

Tags

• OPEN AND SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WALK IN CLOSET
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• JETTED TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($348/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1249 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $300k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,213 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,591
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -17.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
156 Manistee Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,218 (-9%)	5mo	$315,000	$259	79
124 Coral Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,191 (-11%)	2mo	$212,000	$178	74
153 Escanaba Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-2%)	1mo	$402,000	$305	61
222 Escanaba Ave	0.58mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,344 (0%)	8mo	$295,000	$219	60
505 Burnham Ave	0.20mi	3/3.0	1,537 (+14%)	6mo	$499,000	$325	57
16812 Castile Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (+2%)	7mo	$320,000	$234	57
115 Half Acre Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-4%)	11mo	$325,000	$252	55
203 N El Centro Blvd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,298 (-3%)	11mo	$298,000	$230	55
16910 Castile Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+13%)	1mo	$320,999	$212	52
112 Christopher Dr Unit B	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+8%)	8mo	$350,000	$242	48
112 Leeward Way	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (+13%)	5mo	$385,000	$253	47
174 Escanaba Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+13%)	6mo	$375,000	$248	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-52,628
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-66,424
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32413

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 1249
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,767/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,335

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $114	+0% $29	+5% $-56	+10% $-141
Rent	-10% $-158	-5% $-65	+0% $29	+5% $123	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $105	base $29	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
127 Heather Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1297	$2,350	$1.81	14d	1	0.14mi
17225 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	981	$1,719	$1.75	14d	10	0.36mi
102 Cabana Cay Cir Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,143	$2.26	14d	26	0.59mi
220 Sundial St Unit 1447107P Panama City Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1227	$2,691	$2.19	21d	1	0.77mi
17155 Front Beach Rd Unit 1354915P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,498	$2.09	21d	1	0.80mi
17545 Front Beach Rd Unit 1523333P Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$6,472	$5.68	14d	1	0.90mi
17751 Panama City Beach Pkwy Unit 2E Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,600	$2.36	21d	1	1.00mi
17751 Panama City Beach Pkwy Unit 1523371P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$3,862	$3.52	21d	1	1.00mi
17735 Front Beach Rd Unit 1447171P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1227	$4,925	$4.01	21d	1	1.17mi
400 Crossings Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,787	$1.72	14d	9	1.38mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $299,900 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $299,900 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $299,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-05-17
   price $299,900 1061-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

   Looking for affordability and convenience to everything the west end of the beach has to offer? This is IT! With paid for solar panels, you'll have super affordable electric bills. When you walk in the front door, you'll be greeted by an open and spacious living room/kitchen area complete with vaulted ceilings. The roomy master bedroom with walk in closet features an ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, separate shower and double sink vanity. HVAC was installed in November of 2018 and water heater with timer was installed in summer of 2018. Roof was done in 2015, so the home is truly ready for your cosmetic touches of perfection. There is a large screened porch for you to be able to enjoy your morning coffee. With direct access to Hwy 79, you truly have the best of both worlds with being right by the beach, nearby to 30A and easy access to the airport. No HOA neighborhood is another plus and there is plenty of space to add a pool. Estate sale is coming, so let your agent know if you are interested in purchasing items. Make this home yours today!

5. 2026-05-01
   status Active 1061-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

   Looking for affordability and convenience to everything the west end of the beach has to offer? This is IT! With paid for solar panels, you'll have super affordable electric bills. When you walk in the front door, you'll be greeted by an open and spacious living room/kitchen area complete with vaulted ceilings. The roomy master bedroom with walk in closet features an ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, separate shower and double sink vanity. HVAC was installed in November of 2018 and water heater with timer was installed in summer of 2018. Roof was done in 2015, so the home is truly ready for your cosmetic touches of perfection. There is a large screened porch for you to be able to enjoy your morning coffee. With direct access to Hwy 79, you truly have the best of both worlds with being right by the beach, nearby to 30A and easy access to the airport. No HOA neighborhood is another plus and there is plenty of space to add a pool. Estate sale is coming, so let your agent know if you are interested in purchasing items. Make this home yours today!

6. 2026-05-01
   price $309,900 1061-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

   Looking for affordability and convenience to everything the west end of the beach has to offer? This is IT! With paid for solar panels, you'll have super affordable electric bills. When you walk in the front door, you'll be greeted by an open and spacious living room/kitchen area complete with vaulted ceilings. The roomy master bedroom with walk in closet features an ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, separate shower and double sink vanity. HVAC was installed in November of 2018 and water heater with timer was installed in summer of 2018. Roof was done in 2015, so the home is truly ready for your cosmetic touches of perfection. There is a large screened porch for you to be able to enjoy your morning coffee. With direct access to Hwy 79, you truly have the best of both worlds with being right by the beach, nearby to 30A and easy access to the airport. No HOA neighborhood is another plus and there is plenty of space to add a pool. Estate sale is coming, so let your agent know if you are interested in purchasing items. Make this home yours today!

7. 2026-04-20
   historical Active Under Contract 1061-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

   Looking for affordability and convenience to everything the west end of the beach has to offer? This is IT! With paid for solar panels, you'll have super affordable electric bills. When you walk in the front door, you'll be greeted by an open and spacious living room/kitchen area complete with vaulted ceilings. The roomy master bedroom with walk in closet features an ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, separate shower and double sink vanity. HVAC was installed in November of 2018 and water heater with timer was installed in summer of 2018. Roof was done in 2015, so the home is truly ready for your cosmetic touches of perfection. There is a large screened porch for you to be able to enjoy your morning coffee. With direct access to Hwy 79, you truly have the best of both worlds with being right by the beach, nearby to 30A and easy access to the airport. No HOA neighborhood is another plus and there is plenty of space to add a pool. Estate sale is coming, so let your agent know if you are interested in purchasing items. Make this home yours today!

8. 2026-04-05
   price $313,400 1061-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

   Looking for affordability and convenience to everything the west end of the beach has to offer? This is IT! With paid for solar panels, you'll have super affordable electric bills. When you walk in the front door, you'll be greeted by an open and spacious living room/kitchen area complete with vaulted ceilings. The roomy master bedroom with walk in closet features an ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, separate shower and double sink vanity. HVAC was installed in November of 2018 and water heater with timer was installed in summer of 2018. Roof was done in 2015, so the home is truly ready for your cosmetic touches of perfection. There is a large screened porch for you to be able to enjoy your morning coffee. With direct access to Hwy 79, you truly have the best of both worlds with being right by the beach, nearby to 30A and easy access to the airport. No HOA neighborhood is another plus and there is plenty of space to add a pool. Estate sale is coming, so let your agent know if you are interested in purchasing items. Make this home yours today!

9. 2026-04-01
   listed $329,900 Active 1061-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1061 chars)

   Looking for affordability and convenience to everything the west end of the beach has to offer? This is IT! With paid for solar panels, you'll have super affordable electric bills. When you walk in the front door, you'll be greeted by an open and spacious living room/kitchen area complete with vaulted ceilings. The roomy master bedroom with walk in closet features an ensuite bathroom with jetted tub, separate shower and double sink vanity. HVAC was installed in November of 2018 and water heater with timer was installed in summer of 2018. Roof was done in 2015, so the home is truly ready for your cosmetic touches of perfection. There is a large screened porch for you to be able to enjoy your morning coffee. With direct access to Hwy 79, you truly have the best of both worlds with being right by the beach, nearby to 30A and easy access to the airport. No HOA neighborhood is another plus and there is plenty of space to add a pool. Estate sale is coming, so let your agent know if you are interested in purchasing items. Make this home yours today!

10. 2021-12-14
    historical
11. 2001-05-09
    soldstatus $119,900
12. 2000-08-29
    listed $122,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$722/yr (+$60/mo · 40.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,767
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,277
• − Management: −$2,277
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$4,879
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,171
• After-tax cash flow: $1,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City Beach, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,453
• Household income: $80,039
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 531.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -185.97%
• Current HPI: 354.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+144.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $299,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $309,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $313,400 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $329,900 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2001-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 2000-08-29 Listed $122,500 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,767 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.