15070 E Colonial Dr #12 · Alafaya, FL 32862

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 236 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition $86/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Brand New Home in Orlando, FL! Be the first to own this beautiful new home! This thoughtfully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers 924 sq. ft. of modern living space with an open-concept layout that's perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious living room flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating a bright and welcoming gathering space. The primary suite features a private ensuite bathroom and a generous closet, while the two additional bedrooms provide flexible space for a home office, gym, guest room, or children's room.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 236 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.8% vs local median 3.4% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Castle Creek Elementary (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 560 students, 64% FRL); Avalon Middle (math 70% / reading 69%, grade A, #66 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 911 students, 29% FRL); East River High (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,050 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.69%
• DSCR: 3.79
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,218
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -55.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2935 Colorado Ave	1.81mi	3/1.5	891 (-4%)	6mo	$290,000	$325	52
13953 Fox Meadow Dr	1.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	963 (+4%)	0mo	$272,000	$282	49
2943 Slippery Rock Ave	1.70mi	3/1.0	904 (-2%)	14mo	$310,000	$343	46
2718 Hilda Ct	1.79mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (-4%)	11mo	$280,000	$317	40
1920 Bonneville Dr	1.73mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+13%)	8mo	$300,000	$288	38
2912 Talladega Dr	1.72mi	3/2.0	1,181 (+28%)	6mo	$359,900	$305	35
13947 Lena St	1.70mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+20%)	7mo	$315,000	$284	34
13927 Countryplace Dr	1.67mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+18%)	8mo	$320,000	$293	33
1814 Annapolis Ave #3	1.63mi	2/1.5 (-1)	840 (-9%)	14mo	$25,000	$30	31
2948 Talladega Dr	1.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,181 (+28%)	6mo	$352,000	$298	30
2729 Hilda Ct	1.78mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+28%)	16mo	$380,000	$321	27
2743 Nattie Ct	1.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,067 (+16%)	13mo	$305,000	$286	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $84,092
• Equity at exit: $35,926

10-year hold

• IRR: 67.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.72×
• Total profit: $195,100
• Equity at exit: $55,367

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active
• Median asking: $73,400 ($92/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +110.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32862

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $1,169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,224	-5% $1,196	+0% $1,169	+5% $1,141	+10% $1,113
Rent	-10% $997	-5% $1,083	+0% $1,169	+5% $1,255	+10% $1,341
Rate	-1.0pp $1,209	-0.5pp $1,189	base $1,169	+0.5pp $1,148	+1.0pp $1,127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
525 Loyola Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1400	$2,966	$2.12	0d	53	0.61mi
14175 Bent Tree Ct Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$1,650	$1.76	10d	1	0.91mi
1683 Fricke Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,850	$1.71	10d	1	1.00mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $79,900

Exterior

• Home design: The Pine Crest floor planSpec inventory
• Exterior features: Located at 15070 E Colonial Dr #12, Orlando, FL 32862

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (The Pine Crest plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $79,900 Active 236 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $79,900 Active 235 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $79,900 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 230 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 229 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 228 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 227 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $79,900 Active 225 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $79,900 Active 224 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 218 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 217 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $79,900 Active 211 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 210 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $79,900 Active 209 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $79,900 Active 207 DOM
21. 2026-08-23
    days on market $79,900 Active 205 DOM
22. 2026-08-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 204 DOM
23. 2026-08-21
    days on market $79,900 Active 203 DOM
24. 2026-08-20
    days on market $79,900 Active 202 DOM
25. 2026-08-19
    days on market $79,900 Active 201 DOM
26. 2026-08-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 200 DOM
27. 2026-08-17
    days on market $79,900 Active 199 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 198 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $79,900 Active 197 DOM
30. 2026-08-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 196 DOM
31. 2026-08-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 195 DOM
32. 2026-08-12
    days on market $79,900 Active 194 DOM
33. 2026-08-11
    days on market $79,900 Active 193 DOM
34. 2026-08-10
    days on market $79,900 Active 192 DOM
35. 2026-08-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 191 DOM
36. 2026-08-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 190 DOM
37. 2026-08-06
    days on market $79,900 Active 188 DOM
38. 2026-08-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 187 DOM
39. 2026-08-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 186 DOM
40. 2026-08-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 185 DOM
41. 2026-07-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 182 DOM
42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 180 DOM
43. 2026-07-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 179 DOM
44. 2026-07-26
    days on market $79,900 Active 177 DOM
45. 2026-07-23
    days on market $79,900 Active 174 DOM
46. 2026-07-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 173 DOM
47. 2026-07-21
    days on market $79,900 Active 172 DOM
48. 2026-07-20
    days on market $79,900 Active 171 DOM
49. 2026-07-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 169 DOM
50. 2026-07-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 167 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,091
• − Management: −$2,091
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $13,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,254
• After-tax cash flow: $10,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $46,200–$83,160 screening

This home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior siding, flooring, and interior wall repairs. Landscaping also needs attention. Significant improvements are needed to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and potential leaks are visible.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling paint and possible rot are evident.
• Major flooring — Visible wear and tear indicates the need for replacement.
• Major interior walls — Signs of wear and tear suggest the need for repair or replacement.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and in need of maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Resale New exterior siding — New siding would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Resale New flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Interior wall repairs — Repairs to the interior walls would improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Castle Creek Elementary D- FL #1,247/2,144 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Avalon Middle A FL #66/571 Nat'l #858/14,009 High East River High F FL #340/667 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Alafaya

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #1076

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alafaya, FL

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Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $79,900

Exterior

• Home design: The Pine Crest floor planSpec inventory
• Exterior features: Located at 15070 E Colonial Dr #12, Orlando, FL 32862

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (The Pine Crest plan)