79 Saddlebag Trl · Lake Wales, FL 33898

$97,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 368 sqft · Manufactured public records · 338 Days on market

Built 1978 4,086 sqft lot $226/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Live your best life in this FULLY FURNISHED and turnkey 2/2 home in beautiful Saddlebag Lake Resort, a pet friendly, gated 55+ community in central Florida where you OWN the land! The home has a spacious main living area, with the primary bedroom on the ground floor and a comfortable guest bedroom upstairs. The kitchen has plenty of cabinets and counter space, with an adjacent breakfast nook. The back yard is an oasis where you can relax on the patio, with no close rear or side neighbors as there is a greenway at the back and on one side. You'll find a shed for all your tools, and a golf cart that stays for the new owner so you can arrive in style at all the amenities. The low HOA dues cove

Key facts

• Gated community
• Own the land
• Plenty of cabinets

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• PET FRIENDLY
• GATED COMMUNITY
• OWN THE LAND
• SPACIOUS MAIN LIVING AREA
• PLENTY OF CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total annual fees listed as $2,720
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required; Monthly HOA approximately $226.67 (quarterly fee listed as $680); Association covers sewer, trash and water; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, sauna, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard courts, recreation facilities; Dog park; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Two levels; Northwest facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Gated community
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $155 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#535 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 338 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $97k implies a 362% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 338 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.87%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-5,682
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $8,343
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $953/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$226
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,082

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $183	+0% $155	+5% $128	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $54	-5% $105	+0% $155	+5% $206	+10% $256
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $180	base $155	+0.5pp $130	+1.0pp $105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $226 · $2,712/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 338 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 337 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 336 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 335 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,000 Active 333 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,000 Active 330 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 329 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,000 Active 328 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $97,000 Active 327 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $97,000 Active 324 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,000 Active 322 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 321 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 320 DOM
14. 2026-02-25
    price $97,000
15. 2026-01-13
    price $108,900
16. 2025-09-23
    price $115,000
17. 2025-07-15
    listed $123,600 Active
18. 1994-12-08
    soldstatus $21,000
19. 1986-11-01
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $953 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $953 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$953
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,227
• − Management: −$1,227
• − HOA: −$2,712
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $482
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$116
• After-tax cash flow: $1,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Wales

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+304.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $97,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $108,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Listed $123,600 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records
• 1986-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $953 · +20.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.