1816 Stonechat · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$248,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 155 Days on market

Built 2025 4,791 sqft lot $134/sqft · 8% below area Est $271k · 8% under $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Lavish owner's suite
• Single-story living
• Full bathroom

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LAVISH OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-215 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• New Braunfels ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #157 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1896 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $194,270 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,499
• List price: $248,500
• Delta: -8.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3934 Legend Park	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,854 (+0%)	0mo	$329,000	$177	92
1908 Stonechat	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+3%)	0mo	$270,999	$142	87
1825 Stonechat	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,891 (+2%)	1mo	$247,999	$131	84
1877 Stonechat	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	0mo	$228,999	$137	78
1861 Stonechat	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	1mo	$223,999	$134	76
135 Bass	0.45mi	4/2.5	1,910 (+3%)	1mo	$269,900	$141	71
724 Rusty Gate Way	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,770 (-4%)	2mo	$315,000	$178	53
3521 Hilts Trl	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	2mo	$285,999	$179	52
3528 Hilts Trl	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	1mo	$212,999	$133	52
3518 Hilts Trl	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	1mo	$213,999	$134	51
3506 Hilts Trl	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-14%)	1mo	$209,999	$131	51
4230 Winston Way	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,098 (+13%)	2mo	$349,990	$167	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-59,580
• Equity at exit: $37,052

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-91,284
• Equity at exit: $21,486

Cash invested: $69,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1896
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,303
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,728/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,214

Max offer price $217,448

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,125
• Closing costs: $7,455
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1881 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,595	$1.27	4d	1	0.11mi
2935 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,700	$1.03	4d	1	0.18mi
2915 Whinchat Unit N/A Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,850	$1.93	1d	1	0.19mi
1837 Stonechat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,575	$1.07	43d	1	0.20mi
2864 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	43d	1	0.20mi
2924 Whinchat New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1675	$1,925	$1.15	23d	1	0.21mi
2834 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1900	$1,995	$1.05	23d	1	0.24mi
2831 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1901	$1,849	$0.97	43d	1	0.24mi
283 Rolling Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	43d	1	0.28mi
2815 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$1,725	$1.05	4d	1	0.30mi
2802 Calandra Lark New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1886	$1,995	$1.06	43d	1	0.31mi
1201 Legend Pass New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,650	$1.34	43d	1	0.32mi
2766 Rosefinch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1874	$1,795	$0.96	16d	1	0.37mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	3d	1	0.38mi
2569 McCrae New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,995	$1.06	2d	1	0.38mi
3952 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1910	$1,795	$0.94	4d	1	0.38mi
4044 Legend Mdws New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,850	$1.15	4d	1	0.39mi
104 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2237	$1,995	$0.89	1d	1	0.40mi
108 Bass Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1770	$1,999	$1.13	1d	1	0.41mi
3931 Gentle Mdw New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1698	$1,861	$1.10	43d	1	0.41mi
2737 Green Finch New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	14d	1	0.44mi
1490 W Klein Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	43d	1	0.51mi
3514 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,695	$1.21	17d	1	0.53mi
3307 Hilts Trl New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,650	$1.30	14d	1	0.54mi
2564 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,320	$0.96	4d	1	0.58mi
2562 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,320	$0.96	4d	1	0.59mi
2575 Pahmeyer Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,499	$1.09	43d	1	0.60mi
901 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	2.0–4.0	1.5–3.5	1525	$2,095	$1.37	1d	131	0.64mi
4107 Carraway St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2348	$2,000	$0.85	1d	1	0.65mi
905 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,795	$1.23	43d	1	0.65mi
907 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	1785	$1,775	$0.99	23d	1	0.65mi
3230 Mound Rdg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,595	$1.14	43d	1	0.69mi
1906 Fieldfare New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,775	$1.22	23d	1	0.72mi
4211 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1585	$1,800	$1.14	43d	1	0.73mi
957 Beebrush Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,685	$1.15	23d	1	0.77mi
4238 Danforth St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1681	$1,795	$1.07	43d	1	0.79mi
1422 Copperleaf Ct New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,795	$1.24	43d	1	0.80mi
4262 Winston Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,700	$1.14	43d	1	0.80mi
741 Farmers Dell New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2538	$2,199	$0.87	43d	1	0.82mi
646 Ridge Lawn Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1882	$1,950	$1.04	23d	1	0.82mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,500 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,500 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,500 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,500 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,500 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $248,500 Active 146 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $248,500 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $248,500 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $248,500 Active 141 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,500 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $248,500 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $248,500 Price Change 138 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $248,500 Price Change 137 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $249,000 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

15. 2026-04-11
    price $250,000 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

16. 2026-03-25
    price $255,000 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

17. 2026-02-20
    price $260,000 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

18. 2026-01-14
    listed $270,000 New 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

19. 2025-12-26
    soldstatus Sold 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

20. 2025-12-19
    status Pending 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

21. 2025-10-26
    price $300,999 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

22. 2025-10-21
    listed $305,999 New 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,920
• − Property taxes: −$3,728
• − Insurance: −$1,242
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$7,229
• Taxable loss: −$6,921
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,661
• After-tax cash flow: $-914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Braunfels ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832370
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,945
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #2931
• State rank: #157 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $249,000 LERA
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $250,000 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $255,000 LERA
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $260,000 LERA
• 2026-01-14 Listed $270,000 LERA
• 2025-12-26 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2025-12-19 Pending — LERA
• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $300,999 LERA
• 2025-10-21 Listed $305,999 LERA