207 Hickory Way · Ellwood City, PA 16117

$106,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1920 2,352 sqft lot $102/sqft · 13% below area Est $121k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Turnkey Investment Opportunity: HUD-Approved Rental. Looking for a hassle-free addition to your portfolio? This well-maintained rental property offers immediate cash flow with none of the typical "fixer-upper" headaches. Investment Highlights: • Immediate ROI: Currently occupied by a reliable, long-term tenant who treats the home with care. • HUD Approved: The property has already met the rigorous standards for HUD/Section 8 housing, ensuring a consistent and reliable rental stream. • Move-In Ready: No deferred maintenance! This home has been professionally managed and kept in excellent condition. • Prime Location: Situated on Hickory Way in the heart of Ellwood City, offering easy access to local amenities and a steady rental market. The Details: This is a rare "buy and hold" opportunity where all the hard work—finding a quality tenant and passing inspections—is already done for you. Whether you are a seasoned investor or looking for your first rental property, 207 Hickory Way is a low-risk, high-reward choice.

Key facts

• Renovated bathroom
• Renovated kitchen
• Original woodwork

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• WALKING DISTANCE TO PARKS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING
• ORIGINAL WOODWORK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $106k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $106k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.3% in Ellwood City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#610 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellwood City Area SD (town): math 28% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #334 of 539 in PA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $733 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $30k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 31y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $106k implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $99,640 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.77%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,397
• List price: $106,000
• Delta: -12.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
183 Pittsburgh Cir	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+1%)	7mo	$142,500	$136	82
719 Crescent Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (-2%)	2mo	$61,890	$60	68
309 Crescent Ave	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,132 (+9%)	0mo	$25,000	$22	67
44 Franklin Ave	0.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,081 (+4%)	4mo	$161,000	$149	65
222 Keystone Way	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	938 (-10%)	6mo	$30,125	$32	65
832 Western St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-0%)	6mo	$79,500	$77	61
417 Division Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,144 (+10%)	2mo	$180,000	$157	57
635 Todd Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,106 (+6%)	6mo	$141,000	$127	55
76 Summit Ave	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-8%)	3mo	$45,000	$47	51
510 Haig St	0.60mi	3/2.0	936 (-10%)	1mo	$200,000	$214	51
408 Wood St	0.63mi	3/1.5	908 (-13%)	4mo	$194,900	$215	44
625 Todd Ave	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	912 (-12%)	8mo	$140,000	$154	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,964
• Equity at exit: $15,805

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $28,603
• Equity at exit: $9,165

Cash invested: $29,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16117

• Home prices YoY: -7.5%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$556
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,809/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $950

Max offer price $106,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $346	+0% $316	+5% $286	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $209	-5% $262	+0% $316	+5% $369	+10% $422
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $343	base $316	+0.5pp $288	+1.0pp $260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,500
• Closing costs: $3,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
716 Hazel Ave Ellwood City, PA	3.0	1.5	1037	$1,350	$1.30	4d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-16
   price $106,000 1081-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1081 chars)

   Turnkey Investment Opportunity: HUD-Approved Rental. Looking for a hassle-free addition to your portfolio? This well-maintained rental property offers immediate cash flow with none of the typical "fixer-upper" headaches. Investment Highlights: • Immediate ROI: Currently occupied by a reliable, long-term tenant who treats the home with care. • HUD Approved: The property has already met the rigorous standards for HUD/Section 8 housing, ensuring a consistent and reliable rental stream. • Move-In Ready: No deferred maintenance! This home has been professionally managed and kept in excellent condition. • Prime Location: Situated on Hickory Way in the heart of Ellwood City, offering easy access to local amenities and a steady rental market. The Details: This is a rare "buy and hold" opportunity where all the hard work—finding a quality tenant and passing inspections—is already done for you. Whether you are a seasoned investor or looking for your first rental property, 207 Hickory Way is a low-risk, high-reward choice.

2. 2026-03-07
   listed $119,000 Active 1081-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1081 chars)

   Turnkey Investment Opportunity: HUD-Approved Rental. Looking for a hassle-free addition to your portfolio? This well-maintained rental property offers immediate cash flow with none of the typical "fixer-upper" headaches. Investment Highlights: • Immediate ROI: Currently occupied by a reliable, long-term tenant who treats the home with care. • HUD Approved: The property has already met the rigorous standards for HUD/Section 8 housing, ensuring a consistent and reliable rental stream. • Move-In Ready: No deferred maintenance! This home has been professionally managed and kept in excellent condition. • Prime Location: Situated on Hickory Way in the heart of Ellwood City, offering easy access to local amenities and a steady rental market. The Details: This is a rare "buy and hold" opportunity where all the hard work—finding a quality tenant and passing inspections—is already done for you. Whether you are a seasoned investor or looking for your first rental property, 207 Hickory Way is a low-risk, high-reward choice.

3. 2019-12-06
   historical Withdrawn 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom home! Newly renovated kitchen, bathroom, freshly painted, and newer furnace! This home is turn-key ready to move in! This adorable home is nestled in a quaint neighborhood walking distance to parks, schools and shopping. Spacious living room and dining room boasting character of original woodwork. Backyard provides ample space for family entertainment. Walkable community. This just may be the home you've been hoping to find.

4. 2019-09-19
   price $59,900 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom home! Newly renovated kitchen, bathroom, freshly painted, and newer furnace! This home is turn-key ready to move in! This adorable home is nestled in a quaint neighborhood walking distance to parks, schools and shopping. Spacious living room and dining room boasting character of original woodwork. Backyard provides ample space for family entertainment. Walkable community. This just may be the home you've been hoping to find.

5. 2019-07-27
   price $64,900 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom home! Newly renovated kitchen, bathroom, freshly painted, and newer furnace! This home is turn-key ready to move in! This adorable home is nestled in a quaint neighborhood walking distance to parks, schools and shopping. Spacious living room and dining room boasting character of original woodwork. Backyard provides ample space for family entertainment. Walkable community. This just may be the home you've been hoping to find.

6. 2019-05-21
   price $69,400 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom home! Newly renovated kitchen, bathroom, freshly painted, and newer furnace! This home is turn-key ready to move in! This adorable home is nestled in a quaint neighborhood walking distance to parks, schools and shopping. Spacious living room and dining room boasting character of original woodwork. Backyard provides ample space for family entertainment. Walkable community. This just may be the home you've been hoping to find.

7. 2019-04-03
   listed $69,900 Active 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Great 3 bedroom home! Newly renovated kitchen, bathroom, freshly painted, and newer furnace! This home is turn-key ready to move in! This adorable home is nestled in a quaint neighborhood walking distance to parks, schools and shopping. Spacious living room and dining room boasting character of original woodwork. Backyard provides ample space for family entertainment. Walkable community. This just may be the home you've been hoping to find.

8. 2016-01-21
   status Under Contract
9. 2016-01-20
   historical Withdrawn
10. 2016-01-06
    price $12,200
11. 2015-12-11
    listed $12,720 Active
12. 2003-09-08
    soldstatus $32,500
13. 2001-06-04
    soldstatus $48,000
14. 1996-03-25
    soldstatus $36,000
15. 1996-03-25
    soldstatus $36,000
16. 1995-12-17
    listed $42,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,809 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,809 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,938
• − Property taxes: −$1,809
• − Insurance: −$530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$3,084
• Taxable income: $2,248
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$540
• After-tax cash flow: $3,249/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellwood City Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209240
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $44,230
• Composite: 35.49/100
• National rank: #4921
• State rank: #334 of 539 in PA

Livability — Ellwood City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #610
• US rank: #5866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellwood City, PA
• Population (ZIP): 16,013

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.81%
• Current HPI: 257.3336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+147.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $106,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $119,000 West Penn MLS
• 2019-12-06 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2019-09-19 Price Changed $59,900 West Penn MLS
• 2019-07-27 Price Changed $64,900 West Penn MLS
• 2019-05-21 Price Changed $69,400 West Penn MLS
• 2019-04-03 Listed $69,900 West Penn MLS
• 2016-01-21 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2016-01-20 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2016-01-06 Price Changed $12,200 West Penn MLS
• 2015-12-11 Listed $12,720 West Penn MLS
• 2003-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records
• 2001-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-25 Sold (MLS) $36,000 West Penn MLS
• 1995-12-17 Listed $42,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,809 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.