6412 Old Lake Wilson Rd · Loughman, FL 33896

$229,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2018 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* New on Market * 4 Bedroom - 2 Bathroom double wide mobile home on large lot. * Over 1600 sq ft. No HOA! 2018 Model in great condition. Laminate wood flooring, upgraded kitchen. Open floor plan. Great location close to I4 and Disney. Please schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Large lot
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE MOBILE HOME
• LARGE LOT
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $229k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.8% in Loughman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#781 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $229k implies a 503% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.26%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.83% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,414
• Equity at exit: $46,274

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $21,673
• Equity at exit: $41,274

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33896

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,449 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,718/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,822

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
333 Scrub Jay Way Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1918	$2,250	$1.17	3d	1	0.23mi
248 Scrub Jay Way Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1594	$2,365	$1.48	19d	1	0.27mi
165 Scrub Jay Way Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1662	$2,600	$1.56	14d	1	0.28mi
356 Earlmont Pl Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1597	$2,550	$1.60	23d	1	0.28mi
1737 Royal Ridge Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	3.5	1746	$2,500	$1.43	23d	1	0.34mi
1126 Sandy Ridge Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1662	$3,000	$1.81	3d	1	0.35mi
205 Paradise Woods Pl Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,149	$1.74	14d	1	0.41mi
519 Thousand Oaks Blvd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,175	$1.42	3d	1	0.45mi
1014 Cypress Pointe Blvd Davenport, FL	5.0	4.0	2110	$3,200	$1.52	23d	1	0.53mi
136 Starbird Ct Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1662	$2,600	$1.56	14d	1	0.74mi
376 Tanglewood Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,400	$1.30	23d	1	0.76mi
1416 Thousand Oaks Blvd Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1357	$2,100	$1.55	23d	1	0.76mi
289 Siesta Vista Ct Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$2,100	$1.16	23d	1	0.80mi
120 Reserve Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1790	$2,500	$1.40	23d	1	1.02mi
200 Village Blvd Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,887	$1.81	2d	28	1.22mi
231 Salamanca Rd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,120	$1.15	23d	1	1.27mi
817 Terrace Ridge Cir #817 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$1,795	$1.16	21d	1	1.28mi
818 Terrace Ridge Cir #818 Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1542	$2,300	$1.49	14d	1	1.28mi
502 Viola Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	4.0	2195	$2,900	$1.32	23d	1	1.29mi
151 Granada Blvd Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,500	$1.21	13d	1	1.31mi
260 Hamlet Loop Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	2d	1	1.32mi
447 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1507	$1,850	$1.23	21d	1	1.34mi
419 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1724	$1,900	$1.10	23d	1	1.34mi
467 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1507	$1,825	$1.21	23d	1	1.35mi
471 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1724	$1,980	$1.15	11d	1	1.35mi
364 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	3.0	1724	$1,890	$1.10	13d	1	1.42mi
364 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,890	$1.13	23d	1	1.42mi
364 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1724	$1,890	$1.10	14d	1	1.42mi
2110 Lynwind Blvd Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$2,504	$2.37	3d	41	1.42mi
1305 Farkleberry LN Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1060	$2,385	$2.25	3d	172	1.43mi
241 Arbor Lakes Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1507	$1,800	$1.19	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-24
   listed $229,000 Active
3. 2012-03-16
   soldstatus $38,000
4. 2005-08-24
   soldstatus $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,718 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$183/yr (+$15/mo · 10.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,383
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,718
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,351
• − Management: −$2,351
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $2,329
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$559
• After-tax cash flow: $5,380/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Loughman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #781
• US rank: #17702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loughman, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 23,652
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,731
• Household income: $74,668
• Rent vs Own: 54.9% rent · 45.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1490.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Estonian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Current HPI: 219.4726
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+241.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,718 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.