104 Overton Rd · Rockfish, NC 28376

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1997 0.34 ac lot Est $195k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3 bedroom home with lots of upgrades. Family room is complete with a fireplace that leads to the eat-in-kitchen with brand new countertops. Home has 2 full baths and walk in closet in the master. Beautiful New flooring and New carpets throughout the home, New light and plumbing fixtures. It has a New Roof (2021) New HVAC (2021) and the complete interior has been freshly painted. Large backyard with privacy fencing and patio, and 2 car garage.

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Vinyl flooring
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• NEWLY UPDATED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• VAULTED CEILING
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• ATTACHED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shed(s) on the property

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($487/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Rockfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#108 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandy Grove Elementary (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,018 of 1,410 statewide, top 72%, 578 students, 100% FRL); Sandy Grove Middle (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #251 of 475 statewide, top 54%, 645 students, 99% FRL); Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 575 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $164k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,282 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.79%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,360
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10109 Rockfish Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-2%)	16mo	$216,500	$208	68
302 Kernstown Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+11%)	13mo	$240,000	$205	63
9937 Rockfish Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+14%)	21mo	$207,000	$172	51
116 E Twelve Oaks Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	17mo	$200,000	$185	49
501 Camden Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+12%)	16mo	$216,000	$182	44
122 Hickman Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	15mo	$210,000	$182	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,025
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,046
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28376

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 575
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,743 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,090/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,691

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $103	+0% $41	+5% $-22	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-28	+0% $41	+5% $109	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $97	base $41	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Belle Boyd Dr Raeford, NC	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,800	$1.48	25d	1	0.18mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $220,000 Active
3. 2021-11-17
   soldstatus $163,502 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom home with lots of upgrades. Family room is complete with a fireplace that leads to the eat-in-kitchen with brand new countertops. Home has 2 full baths and walk in closet in the master. Beautiful New flooring and New carpets throughout the home, New light and plumbing fixtures. It has a New Roof (2021) New HVAC (2021) and the complete interior has been freshly painted. Large backyard with privacy fencing and patio, and 2 car garage.

4. 2021-11-17
   soldstatus $163,502 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom home with lots of upgrades. Family room is complete with a fireplace that leads to the eat-in-kitchen with brand new countertops. Home has 2 full baths and walk in closet in the master. Beautiful New flooring and New carpets throughout the home, New light and plumbing fixtures. It has a New Roof (2021) New HVAC (2021) and the complete interior has been freshly painted. Large backyard with privacy fencing and patio, and 2 car garage.

5. 2021-11-17
   soldstatus $175,500

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom home with lots of upgrades. Family room is complete with a fireplace that leads to the eat-in-kitchen with brand new countertops. Home has 2 full baths and walk in closet in the master. Beautiful New flooring and New carpets throughout the home, New light and plumbing fixtures. It has a New Roof (2021) New HVAC (2021) and the complete interior has been freshly painted. Large backyard with privacy fencing and patio, and 2 car garage.

6. 2021-09-29
   listed $169,900 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom home with lots of upgrades. Family room is complete with a fireplace that leads to the eat-in-kitchen with brand new countertops. Home has 2 full baths and walk in closet in the master. Beautiful New flooring and New carpets throughout the home, New light and plumbing fixtures. It has a New Roof (2021) New HVAC (2021) and the complete interior has been freshly painted. Large backyard with privacy fencing and patio, and 2 car garage.

7. 2021-09-29
   listed $169,900 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Beautiful 3 bedroom home with lots of upgrades. Family room is complete with a fireplace that leads to the eat-in-kitchen with brand new countertops. Home has 2 full baths and walk in closet in the master. Beautiful New flooring and New carpets throughout the home, New light and plumbing fixtures. It has a New Roof (2021) New HVAC (2021) and the complete interior has been freshly painted. Large backyard with privacy fencing and patio, and 2 car garage.

8. 2021-09-01
   soldstatus $106,517

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,090 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$714/yr (+$59/mo · 65.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,090
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,673
• − Management: −$1,673
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$803
• After-tax cash flow: $1,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Rockfish

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #6802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hoke County · 44,880 people
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 44,880
• Household income: $66,471
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.30%
• Current HPI: 169.1801
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+106.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $220,000 TMLS
• 2021-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $175,500 Public Records
• 2021-11-17 Sold (MLS) $163,502 LPRMLS
• 2021-11-17 Sold (MLS) $163,502 TMLS
• 2021-09-29 Listed $169,900 LPRMLS
• 2021-09-29 Listed $169,900 TMLS
• 2021-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $106,517 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,090 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.