528 Fulton St · Buffalo, NY 14210

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1915 2,091 sqft lot $86/sqft · 39% below area Est $148k · 39% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Affordable living in the heart of Buffalo’s First Ward! Welcome to 528 Fulton Street—this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a spacious living area, formal dining room, and an eat-in kitchen with plenty of potential. Recent mechanical updates include a hot water tank (2025) and furnace (2024), adding peace of mind for the next owner. Exterior features include low-maintenance vinyl siding, and a generous driveway with a storage shed for added convenience. Great for owner occupant or investment. Showings begin immediately

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Formal dining room
• Spacious living area

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• HOT WATER TANK
• FURNACE
• VINYL SIDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; PEX plumbing; Asphalt roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Gas heating
• Interior features: Living/dining room; Bedroom on main level; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $841 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.7%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.22%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,670
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -39.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Owahn Pl	0.43mi	3/1.0	998 (-5%)	2mo	$130,750	$131	70
225 Alabama St	0.46mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,055 (+0%)	7mo	$50,000	$47	67
17 Clifford St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-1%)	20mo	$55,000	$53	64
190 Hamburg St	0.40mi	3/1.0	980 (-7%)	18mo	$130,000	$133	55
160 Selkirk St	0.50mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,171 (+12%)	7mo	$150,000	$128	47
444 S Division St Unit N	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,028 (-2%)	19mo	$200,000	$195	46
118 Smith St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	902 (-14%)	18mo	$135,000	$150	39
136 Tennessee St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,196 (+14%)	10mo	$75,000	$63	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $112,227
• Equity at exit: $81,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.3%
• Equity multiple: 13.39×
• Total profit: $312,219
• Equity at exit: $174,850

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14210

• Home prices YoY: 13.8%
• Rents YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,821 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $254/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $841

Break-even live

Break-even rent $756

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $892	-5% $867	+0% $841	+5% $816	+10% $790
Rent	-10% $697	-5% $769	+0% $841	+5% $913	+10% $985
Rate	-1.0pp $887	-0.5pp $864	base $841	+0.5pp $818	+1.0pp $794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
141 Vandalia St Unit Lower back Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	45d	1	0.46mi
140 Seymour St Unit First Floor Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	5d	1	0.48mi
140 Seymour St Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	25d	1	0.48mi
225 Louisiana St Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1164	$2,653	$2.28	3d	7	0.71mi
230 Scott St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1285	$2,325	$1.81	3d	4	0.84mi
149 Swan St #404 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,050	$1.66	13d	1	1.13mi
149 Swan St #404 Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1237	$2,100	$1.70	25d	1	1.13mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	1.21mi
237 Main St Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1608	$4,035	$2.51	3d	9	1.38mi
700 Hopkins St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,225	$1.11	16d	1	1.40mi
696 Hopkins St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	45d	1	1.40mi
465 Washington St Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1388	$2,285	$1.65	4d	5	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $90,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    price $90,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    listed $100,000 Active 532-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $254 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $888 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$633/yr (+$53/mo · 249.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,848
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$254
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,748
• − Management: −$1,748
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $9,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,206
• After-tax cash flow: $7,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,563
• Household income: $54,197
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.34%
• Current HPI: 431.7951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Price Changed $90,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $100,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $254 · +37.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.