2915 Megan Cir · Youngstown, OH 44505

$104,232

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,366 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2004 8,232 sqft lot Est $113k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 bedroom 2 bath house is Handicap assessable with ramps on the front door, back door and the garage. This house features 36 inch interior doors as well as walk in shower in the master bathroom. The sinks in the master bath and kitchen are cut out for easy wheelchair access. These features in a house do not happen very often, call now for you house tour.

Key facts

• 8,232 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 7.0% in Youngstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Youngstown City (urban): math 8% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #649 of 656 in OH (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 82 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $721 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $97,978 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.64%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,378
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2915 Megan Cir	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,366 (0%)	1mo	$100,000	$73	99
2951 Megan Cir	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,366 (0%)	5mo	$100,000	$73	91
2824 Benford Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,366 (0%)	6mo	$100,000	$73	91
3758 Choice Ct	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,366 (0%)	12mo	$115,000	$84	76
3786 Choice Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,366 (0%)	1mo	$115,000	$84	76
3244 Nelson Ave	0.21mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,332 (-2%)	8mo	$110,000	$83	73
3302 Castalia Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (+14%)	4mo	$212,000	$136	46
3725 Ron Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,560 (+14%)	6mo	$179,999	$115	45
6458 Poplar Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,247 (-9%)	20mo	$100,000	$80	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $4,231
• Equity at exit: $15,541

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $30,857
• Equity at exit: $9,012

Cash invested: $29,185 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44505

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$547
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,026/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $855

Max offer price $104,232

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $391	-5% $361	+0% $332	+5% $302	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $231	-5% $281	+0% $332	+5% $382	+10% $432
Rate	-1.0pp $384	-0.5pp $358	base $332	+0.5pp $305	+1.0pp $277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,058
• Closing costs: $3,127
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2983 Megan Cir Youngstown, OH	4.0	2.0	1366	$1,275	$0.93	14d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-03-24
   status Active
4. 2026-03-20
   historical Contingent
5. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
6. 2026-02-08
   listed $104,232 Active
7. 2022-11-01
   soldstatus $85,000 Closed 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   This 4 bedroom 2 bath house is Handicap assessable with ramps on the front door, back door and the garage. This house features 36 inch interior doors as well as walk in shower in the master bathroom. The sinks in the master bath and kitchen are cut out for easy wheelchair access. These features in a house do not happen very often, call now for you house tour.

8. 2022-11-01
   soldstatus $85,000

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   This 4 bedroom 2 bath house is Handicap assessable with ramps on the front door, back door and the garage. This house features 36 inch interior doors as well as walk in shower in the master bathroom. The sinks in the master bath and kitchen are cut out for easy wheelchair access. These features in a house do not happen very often, call now for you house tour.

9. 2022-10-29
   status Pending 361-char remark

   Show marketing remark (361 chars)

   This 4 bedroom 2 bath house is Handicap assessable with ramps on the front door, back door and the garage. This house features 36 inch interior doors as well as walk in shower in the master bathroom. The sinks in the master bath and kitchen are cut out for easy wheelchair access. These features in a house do not happen very often, call now for you house tour.

10. 2022-08-05
    historical Contingent 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This 4 bedroom 2 bath house is Handicap assessable with ramps on the front door, back door and the garage. This house features 36 inch interior doors as well as walk in shower in the master bathroom. The sinks in the master bath and kitchen are cut out for easy wheelchair access. These features in a house do not happen very often, call now for you house tour.

11. 2022-07-29
    listed $79,900 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    This 4 bedroom 2 bath house is Handicap assessable with ramps on the front door, back door and the garage. This house features 36 inch interior doors as well as walk in shower in the master bathroom. The sinks in the master bath and kitchen are cut out for easy wheelchair access. These features in a house do not happen very often, call now for you house tour.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,026 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,326 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$300/yr (+$25/mo · 29.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,839
• − Property taxes: −$1,026
• − Insurance: −$521
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$3,032
• Taxable income: $2,434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$584
• After-tax cash flow: $3,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Youngstown City
• NCES district ID: 3904516
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $25,257
• Composite: 9.29/100
• National rank: #9858
• State rank: #649 of 656 in OH

Livability — Youngstown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #1506

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Youngstown, OH
• County: Mahoning · 224,175 people
• City population: 28,503
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 16,449
• Household income: $36,480
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.8

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 37% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.64%
• Current HPI: 192.3375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+30.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-15 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-20 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-11 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-02-08 Listed $104,232 MLSNOW
• 2022-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-01 Sold (MLS) $85,000 MLSNOW
• 2022-10-29 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2022-08-05 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2022-07-29 Listed $79,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+22.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,026 · -11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.