15404 Bicknells Thrush Ct · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$340,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2022 0.33 ac lot $180/sqft · at area comps Est $337k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

This bright and inviting Magnolia located in a Cul-de-sac delivers a warm and open layout from the moment you walk in and boasts one of the biggest lots in the neighborhood! The spacious living room sets a welcoming tone, while the modern kitchen shines with an island and bar seating, flowing seamlessly into the main living area. The primary suite offers an ensuite bath with dual sinks, a soaking tub, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms provide great flexibility, and a charming sunroom adds a wonderful indoor-outdoor feel year-round. Outside, the fully fenced yard features a screened in patio room, a garden, and a storage shed. Upgraded attic with hard surface

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Walk-in closet
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• ISLAND AND BAR SEATING
• ENSUITE BATH
• SOAKING TUB
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 2022
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Fence (back yard); Patio; Private yard; Backs to greenbelt/park; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First level) — 15x14; Bedroom (First level) — 12x12; Bedroom (First level) — 11x11; Bedroom (First level) — 12x10
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-494 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (25.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia Parkway El (math 38% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 776 students, 45% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,161 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.23%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $337,327
• List price: $340,000
• Delta: 0.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15206 N Heron Heights Way	0.12mi	4/3.0	1,997 (+6%)	1mo	$335,000	$168	80
40418 Gerygone Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,064 (+9%)	8mo	$299,900	$145	68
14898 Whistling Duck Ln	0.45mi	4/3.0	1,942 (+3%)	5mo	$369,900	$190	66
40427 Gerygone Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5	2,064 (+9%)	8mo	$324,900	$157	66
15106 Rose Willow Ln	0.50mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,818 (-4%)	2mo	$281,990	$155	64
40710 Barley Straw Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-8%)	2mo	$286,490	$164	62
14707 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,984 (+5%)	6mo	$394,900	$199	61
40734 Barley Straw Dr	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,041 (+8%)	1mo	$314,990	$154	59
40443 Gerygone Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,614 (-15%)	6mo	$304,900	$189	54
40504 Warialda Trace Ln	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,820 (-4%)	7mo	$245,000	$135	53
14910 Slough View Ct	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,049 (+8%)	6mo	$452,900	$221	52
14890 Whistling Duck Ln	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,169 (+15%)	7mo	$449,900	$207	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $147,392
• Equity at exit: $306,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $447,412
• Equity at exit: $660,545

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,422 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$483 /mo · $5,795/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,048

Max offer price $252,649

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-302	-5% $-398	+0% $-494	+5% $-591	+10% $-687
Rent	-10% $-686	-5% $-590	+0% $-494	+5% $-399	+10% $-303
Rate	-1.0pp $-323	-0.5pp $-408	base $-494	+0.5pp $-583	+1.0pp $-672

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	45d	1	0.11mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	26d	1	0.12mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	0d	40	0.24mi
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	45d	1	0.50mi
14541 Montclair Way Montgomery, TX	4.0	3.0	2170	$2,200	$1.01	0d	1	0.86mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	45d	1	1.03mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	21d	1	1.22mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	26d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 802-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $340,000 Active 802-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,795 · $483/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,222 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,059
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$5,795
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,325
• − Management: −$2,325
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$12,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,885
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $340,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+66.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,795 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.