51 Jessica Ct · Freeport, FL 32439

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,227 sqft lot Garage $219/sqft · at area comps Est $296k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CUL-DE-SAC LOCATION FOR THIS CRAFTSMAN STYLE HOME! Ready in mid to late June, the 'Scarlet' plan has vinyl plank flooring throughout, quartz countertops, kitchen work island w/ bar seating, walk-in pantry, owner's bath has walk-in closet, double vanities, linen storage, shower only. Open family/dining/kitchen area + finished garage. Front & rear porches for relaxing, privacy fenced yard, landscaped yard w/ sprinkler system. Seller will contribute up to $12,000 towards buyers closing costs (call for details). Photos of similar sold home, elevation will vary, interior/exterior colors & finishes will vary.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-324 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Freeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#520 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Walton (rural): math 62% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #10 of 73 in FL (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freeport Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 1,123 students, 55% FRL); Emerald Coast Middle School (math 70% / reading 65%, grade A-, #77 of 571 statewide, top 14%, 868 students, 24% FRL); South Walton High School (math 61% / reading 73%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,235 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 1230 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,883 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (1,322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,573 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.70%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,215
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: -0.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
174 Caswell Branch Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,350 (0%)	1mo	$290,000	$215	97
50 Jessica Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-2%)	4mo	$295,000	$223	94
41 Jessica Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-3%)	15mo	$293,000	$223	83
54 Caswell Branch Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-3%)	13mo	$293,000	$223	83
404 Four Mile Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-3%)	13mo	$293,000	$223	82
22 Jessica Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-3%)	17mo	$295,000	$225	82
386 Four Mile Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-3%)	13mo	$293,000	$223	82
9 Laurel Oaks Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+2%)	2mo	$302,152	$219	80
12 Justin Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-3%)	17mo	$294,900	$224	78
150 Bradford Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-4%)	11mo	$315,000	$242	77
7 Alexander Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-4%)	13mo	$307,000	$236	77
26 Alexander Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-2%)	17mo	$315,000	$238	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-71,932
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-103,129
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.5 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $319,000 ($228/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32439

• Home prices YoY: -4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 1230
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,676

Max offer price $248,154

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-120	-5% $-222	+0% $-324	+5% $-426	+10% $-528
Rent	-10% $-503	-5% $-413	+0% $-324	+5% $-234	+10% $-145
Rate	-1.0pp $-175	-0.5pp $-249	base $-324	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-478

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Bradford Ct Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1713	$2,095	$1.22	62d	1	0.09mi
41 S Main Deck Dr Unit 1 Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,195	$1.46	70d	1	0.16mi
47 S Main Deck Dr Unit 1 Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1459	$2,000	$1.37	70d	1	0.16mi
51 S Main Deck Dr Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,095	$1.40	70d	1	0.16mi
170 Bradford Ct Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1253	$2,300	$1.84	70d	1	0.16mi
160 Bradford Ct Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1223	$2,495	$2.04	70d	1	0.16mi
2 Polk St Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1155	$1,550	$1.34	70d	1	0.91mi
266 Emr AVE Freeport, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$985	$1.08	62d	5	0.96mi
3495 Sanctuary WAY Melbourne, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,412	$2.41	62d	38	1.01mi
15 Oakfield Dr Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,350	$1.53	62d	1	1.22mi
70 Jakes Way Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	70d	1	1.35mi
156 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1432	$2,300	$1.61	70d	1	1.36mi
151 Date Palm Ln Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,775	$1.20	62d	1	1.37mi
255 N Jackson St Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,100	$1.44	70d	1	1.39mi
15284 U.S. 331 Business Freeport, FL	2.0	3.0	1106	$1,400	$1.27	70d	1	1.41mi
532 Marquis Way Freeport, FL	3.0	2.0	1807	$2,950	$1.63	70d	1	1.44mi
259 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1336	$1,600	$1.20	70d	1	1.44mi
246 N Sand Palm Rd Freeport, FL	3.0	2.5	1471	$1,650	$1.12	70d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Grande OaksZoned for single-family residence
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (management provided)Fees cover management and accounting

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage spaceGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electric servicePublic waterPublic sewerPrivate well (on property)
• Home design: Single-story craftsman-style homeBuilt in 2026
• Construction: Brick exterior with aluminum and vinyl trimFiber cement sidingShingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yardAutomatic sprinkler systemCovered open porchPrivacy fencingLocated on a cul-de-sacInterior lot with paved road accessCovenants and restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveKitchen islandPantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (master on the first floor)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsMaster bathroom with double vanity, shower-only, and walk-in closet
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilingsKitchen islandRecessed lightingRecently paintedPantryPull-down attic stairsBuilt-in shelvingWasher/dryer hookupDouble-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floorWasher/dryer hookupElectric water heater

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $295,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $295,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $295,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $295,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $295,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $295,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,175
• − Management: −$2,175
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$9,068
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,176
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready with a good curb appeal and interior finish. Consider adding smart home devices for a modern touch and increased value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves convenience and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances comfort and energy savings ↑
• Both Install smart lighting — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Freeport Elementary School C FL #949/2,144 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Freeport Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Freeport Senior High School C- FL #138/667 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton
• NCES district ID: 1201980
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,794
• Composite: 52.03/100
• National rank: #1634
• State rank: #10 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Freeport

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #520
• US rank: #9579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeport, FL
• County: Walton County · 80,014 people
• City population: 15,328
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,328
• Household income: $83,227
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,014 people
• By 2030: 88,120 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 103,537 · +29.4%
• By 2050: 117,034 · +46.3%
• By 2075: 143,901 · +79.8%
• By 2100: 155,138 · +93.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Native American 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.8) · D 20.7% · R 78.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.0pp toward R · 2008: -45.8pp · 2024: -57.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.8 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.1 2012: R+52.0 2008: R+45.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.18%
• Current HPI: 350.4692
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.40%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Grande OaksZoned for single-family residence
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (management provided)Fees cover management and accounting

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage spaceGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electric servicePublic waterPublic sewerPrivate well (on property)
• Home design: Single-story craftsman-style homeBuilt in 2026
• Construction: Brick exterior with aluminum and vinyl trimFiber cement sidingShingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yardAutomatic sprinkler systemCovered open porchPrivacy fencingLocated on a cul-de-sacInterior lot with paved road accessCovenants and restrictions

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveKitchen islandPantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (master on the first floor)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsMaster bathroom with double vanity, shower-only, and walk-in closet
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilingsKitchen islandRecessed lightingRecently paintedPantryPull-down attic stairsBuilt-in shelvingWasher/dryer hookupDouble-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the first floorWasher/dryer hookupElectric water heater

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $295,000 ECAR