4418 Aledo St · Houston, TX 77051

$201,650

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,227 sqft · Land · 6 Days on market

Built 2025 3,001 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Looking for an affordable home with an affordable monthly payment? This beautiful property has it all! Featuring 3 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, 9foot ceilings, and lots of natural light, this home offers comfort and style. One bedroom with a full bath is conveniently located on the first floor not the primary bedroom perfect for guests or multi generational living. Ideally located near freeways, shopping, downtown, and more, this home has everything you’re looking for. Don’t miss out

Key facts

• 3,001 sq ft lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 6 days

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $202k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Williams Middle (math 9% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,623 of 1,662 statewide, top 98%, 411 students, 98% FRL); Washington B T H S (math 27% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 878 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,632 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.70%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $130,145
• Equity at exit: $181,662

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.67×
• Total profit: $376,865
• Equity at exit: $391,762

Cash invested: $56,462 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,057
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$84
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,497

Max offer price $201,650

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $383	-5% $325	+0% $268	+5% $211	+10% $154
Rent	-10% $123	-5% $196	+0% $268	+5% $341	+10% $413
Rate	-1.0pp $370	-0.5pp $320	base $268	+0.5pp $216	+1.0pp $163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,412
• Closing costs: $6,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	8d	1	0.16mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	0.18mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	13d	1	0.20mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,253	$3.84	0d	1	0.39mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	17d	1	0.44mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	13d	1	0.48mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	12d	1	0.48mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	13d	1	0.48mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	25d	1	0.49mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	25d	1	0.53mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	0d	2	0.58mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	18d	1	0.58mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	44d	1	0.59mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	6d	1	0.64mi
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	20d	1	0.68mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	44d	1	0.69mi
7823 Gladstone St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	44d	1	0.81mi
7826 Gladstone St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	760	$1,250	$1.64	0d	1	0.82mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	44d	1	0.84mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	44d	1	0.88mi
9414 Heno St Unit 13 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	0.93mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	44d	1	0.95mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	44d	1	0.98mi
4205 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	824	$900	$1.09	25d	1	0.98mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	1.01mi
4112 Grassmere St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	711	$700	$0.98	11d	1	1.03mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	44d	1	1.03mi
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	44d	1	1.08mi
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	14d	1	1.20mi
3137 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,802	$1.55	44d	1	1.24mi
7812 Tierwester St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	16d	2	1.27mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	15d	1	1.31mi
4007 Corder St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	814	$885	$1.09	25d	1	1.31mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	3d	2	1.33mi
4942 Bataan Rd Unit 77033 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	44d	1	1.40mi
7032 Conley St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,850	$2.34	44d	1	1.43mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1221	$1,228	$1.01	0d	3	1.45mi
6928 Paris St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,900	$1.49	0d	1	1.45mi
6926 Paris St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,900	$1.49	0d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $201,650 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $201,650 Active
4. 2017-11-06
   historical
5. 2017-04-10
   soldstatus
6. 2017-03-28
   listed $169,000 Active
7. 2017-03-28
   listed $169,900
8. 2017-03-28
   historical
9. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,690 · $308/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,201/yr (+$267/mo · 653.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,296
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$1,008
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − Depreciation: −$5,866
• Taxable loss: −$149
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$36
• After-tax cash flow: $3,257/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $201,650 HARMLS
• 2017-11-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-04-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-03-28 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2017-03-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-03-28 Listed $169,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2020): $489 · +13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.