16101 N EL Mirage Rd #395 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$171,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 2002 $81/sqft · 43% above area Est $120k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ON LEASED LAND: This home is ONE of a kind! 4 bedroom 2 bath split floor plan. 2002 Fleetwood. Was fully updated about 6 years ago including dual pane windows. This home has a fully updated Kitchen, cabinets, granite countertops, dual oven, stainless steel appliances. large county sink. Kitchen has a breakfast bar opening up to the dining room and large den area. Primary bedroom is oversized with a sitting area, walk in closet. Large primary bath, dual sinks, custom shower, plenty of storage. Large closets in other bedrooms which area good size. Home has a 11000 wt generator, block fenced yard, inviting covered patio. Some furnishings negotiable. Community is a 55 plus gated resort communi

Key facts

• 4 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private maintained road
• HOA & community: Land lease: $1,135 monthly; Association covers grounds maintenance and street maintenance; Community pool; Heated community spa; Pickleball courts; Community media room; Fitness center; Biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Board & batten siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Exterior storage; Front and rear sprinklers; Desert front and back landscaping; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Multiple ovens; Pantry; Granite counters; Breakfast bar; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bathroom; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Vaulted ceilings; Pantry; Full bathroom in primary bedroom; Skylights; Dual-pane windows with vinyl frames; Bath grab bars; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $545 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• Recommended offer: $166k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $166,355 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.61%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,000
• List price: $171,500
• Delta: 42.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #331	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (-11%)	10mo	$170,000	$89	65
15621 N Verde St	0.51mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,280 (+7%)	7mo	$305,000	$134	53
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #17	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-10%)	17mo	$120,000	$63	29
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #325	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-10%)	17mo	$125,000	$66	29
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #15	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-10%)	19mo	$135,000	$71	27
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #193	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (-10%)	23mo	$180,000	$95	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $691
• Equity at exit: $25,571

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $21,219
• Equity at exit: $14,828

Cash invested: $48,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,190 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$899
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$214 /mo · $2,572/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,500

Max offer price $171,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,875
• Closing costs: $5,145
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	24d	1	0.12mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	24d	1	0.15mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	1d	1	0.17mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	18d	1	0.17mi
12204 W Ocotillo Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$1,949	$0.92	24d	1	0.23mi
15204 N El Frio Ct El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,019	$1.02	2d	1	0.50mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	43d	1	0.57mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	24d	1	0.75mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	22d	1	0.75mi
14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$2,010	$1.31	43d	1	0.80mi
14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$2,040	$1.24	43d	1	0.80mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	16d	1	0.88mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	43d	1	0.89mi
12532 W Saint Moritz Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	5d	1	1.00mi
11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	1.01mi
12571 W Mauna Loa Ln El Mirage, AZ	5.0	3.0	2178	$2,295	$1.05	2d	1	1.04mi
12560 W Saint Moritz Ln El Mirage, AZ	5.0	3.0	2178	$2,390	$1.10	5d	1	1.06mi
16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$1,900	$1.21	43d	1	1.09mi
12537 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	24d	1	1.10mi
11554 W Mule Deer Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1963	$1,816	$0.93	43d	1	1.12mi
13029 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$1,860	$0.95	2d	1	1.32mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	24d	1	1.34mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	5d	1	1.34mi
13007 W Mandalay Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2178	$2,095	$0.96	24d	1	1.35mi
12830 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2179	$2,145	$0.98	2d	1	1.37mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,759	$1.16	24d	1	1.39mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,709	$1.12	15d	1	1.39mi
13002 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,795	$1.18	11d	1	1.48mi
13217 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $171,500 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $171,500 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $171,500 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $171,500 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $171,500 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $171,500 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $171,500 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $171,500 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $171,500 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $171,500 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $171,500 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $171,500 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $171,500 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $171,500 Active 767-char remark
15. 2020-03-01
    historical
16. 2019-11-08
    listed $105,000 Active
17. 2019-11-06
    historical
18. 2019-06-16
    price $107,900
19. 2019-04-19
    listed $109,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,607
• − Property taxes: −$2,572
• − Insurance: −$858
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,102
• − Management: −$2,102
• − Depreciation: −$4,989
• Taxable income: $4,048
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$972
• After-tax cash flow: $5,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+57.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $171,500 ARMLS
• 2020-03-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2019-11-08 Listed $105,000 ARMLS
• 2019-11-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2019-06-16 Price Changed $107,900 ARMLS
• 2019-04-19 Listed $109,000 ARMLS