The Ashport H Plan · Josephine, TX 75173

$384,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,799 sqft · SingleFamily · 284 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With four bedrooms and multiple options to expand, The Ashport delivers the space and flexibility today's families need. This thoughtfully designed home offers 3.5 bathrooms, a private main-level primary suite, and an open-concept layout that balances everyday comfort with effortless entertaining. The spacious kitchen anchors the heart of the home, flowing seamlessly into the family room and casual dining area, with access to an optional covered patio for indoor-outdoor living. A main-level secondary bedroom provides an ideal guest retreat or home office, while the upstairs loft creates a versatile space for work, play, or relaxation. Personalize The Ashport to fit your lifestyle with flexible options, including a gourmet kitchen, enhanced primary bath, expanded upstairs living areas, or the ability to add additional bedrooms and a gameroom. Availability of features and upgrade options may vary by location, so be sure to connect with your community's sales agent for details.

Key facts

• Upstairs loft
• Spacious kitchen
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• OPTIONAL COVERED PATIO
• MAIN-LEVEL SECONDARY BEDROOM
• UPSTAIRS LOFT
• GOURMET KITCHEN

🏗️ New construction. The $384,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $455,171.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $385k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 4.4% in Josephine — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,076 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 621 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $255,928 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.58%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $455,171
• List price: $384,990
• Delta: -15.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
515 Meadowview Ln	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,848 (+2%)	7mo	$499,900	$176	70
314 Timber Ridge Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	2,630 (-6%)	7mo	$471,900	$179	67
2069 Meadowbrook Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,823 (+1%)	0mo	$529,500	$188	63
1913 Creekview Ln	0.69mi	4/3.0	2,814 (+0%)	5mo	$532,900	$189	61
1832 Meadowbrook Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	3,016 (+8%)	5mo	$539,900	$179	55
1863 Meadowbrook Ln	0.60mi	4/3.0	3,016 (+8%)	4mo	$519,900	$172	54
1019 Angel St	0.56mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,060 (+9%)	0mo	$333,094	$109	51
1330 High Meadow Ln	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,469 (-12%)	4mo	$469,900	$190	50
1717 Creekview Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,591 (-7%)	4mo	$529,900	$205	45
2084 Rolling Meadow Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,486 (-11%)	3mo	$479,000	$193	44
2030 Creekview Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0	2,590 (-8%)	6mo	$449,000	$173	43
1973 Creekview Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,591 (-7%)	7mo	$509,900	$197	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $176,364
• Equity at exit: $410,054

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $575,725
• Equity at exit: $884,297

Cash invested: $127,448 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.7 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $347,995 ($138/sqft)
• Median days on market: 171 d
• This list price: 61% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 621
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,559 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,387
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$569 /mo · $6,828/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $-1,124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,982

Max offer price $292,562

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-809	-5% $-966	+0% $-1,124	+5% $-1,281	+10% $-1,438
Rent	-10% $-1,326	-5% $-1,225	+0% $-1,124	+5% $-1,023	+10% $-922
Rate	-1.0pp $-895	-0.5pp $-1,008	base $-1,124	+0.5pp $-1,242	+1.0pp $-1,362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,793
• Closing costs: $13,655
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1835 Creekview Ln Josephine, TX	4.0	2.0	2505	$3,000	$1.20	23d	1	0.68mi
500 Shady Bank Way Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	2229	$2,275	$1.02	0d	1	1.20mi
716 Mallard Dr Josephine, TX	4.0	2.5	2119	$2,000	$0.94	51d	1	1.32mi
805 Concord Ct Nevada, TX	4.0	2.5	3027	$3,950	$1.30	184d	1	1.33mi
805 Martingale Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	1926	$2,300	$1.19	130d	1	1.39mi
412 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2034	$2,250	$1.11	10d	1	1.40mi
503 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.0	2077	$2,190	$1.05	184d	1	1.40mi
19040 Community Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	3.5	3026	$3,599	$1.19	63d	1	1.45mi
831 Lexington Ln Nevada, TX	4.0	2.5	2089	$1,995	$0.96	78d	1	1.46mi
404 Gooseberry Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	2024	$1,900	$0.94	3d	1	1.46mi
404 Gooseberry Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	2024	$1,950	$0.96	21d	1	1.46mi
404 Gooseberry Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	2.0	2024	$1,950	$0.96	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $384,990 Active 284 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $384,990 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $384,990 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $384,990 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $384,990 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $384,990 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $384,990 Active 277 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $384,990 Active 276 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $384,990 Active 275 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $384,990 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $384,990 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $384,990 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $384,990 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $384,990 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $384,990 Active 269 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $384,990 Active 268 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $384,990 Active 267 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $384,990 Active 266 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $384,990 Active 265 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $384,990 Active 264 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $384,990 Active 263 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $384,990 Active 262 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $384,990 Active 261 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $384,990 Active 260 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $384,990 Active 259 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $384,990 Active 258 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $384,990 Active 257 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $384,990 Active 256 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $384,990 Active 255 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $384,990 Active 254 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $384,990 Active 253 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $384,990 Active 252 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $384,990 Active 251 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $384,990 Active 250 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $384,990 Active 249 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $384,990 Active 248 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $384,990 Active 247 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $384,990 Active 246 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $384,990 Active 245 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $384,990 Active 244 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $384,990 Active 243 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $384,990 Active 242 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $384,990 Active 241 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $384,990 Active 240 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $384,990 Active 239 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $384,990 Active 238 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $384,990 Active 237 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $384,990 Active 236 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $384,990 Active 235 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $384,990 Active 234 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,497
• − Property taxes: −$6,828
• − Insurance: −$2,276
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,457
• − Management: −$2,457
• − Depreciation: −$13,241
• Taxable loss: −$22,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,291
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

The Ashport H Plan is a move-in-ready home with excellent condition and a well-designed layout, perfect for families seeking space and flexibility.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Josephine

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #19105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin · 1,210,074 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,284
• Household income: $100,373
• Rent vs Own: 6.7% rent · 93.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $384,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $379,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-28 Listed $384,990 Zillow