612 Nantucket Rd · Forked River, NJ 08731

$384,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1986 5,662 sqft lot $382/sqft · 6% above area Est $363k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Quartz vanity
• Private driveway
• 5,662 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• UPDATED FULL BATHROOM
• QUARTZ VANITY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas stove
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Outdoor lighting; Light fixtures

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $385k).
• Recommended offer: $373k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($373k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $282k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $373,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.40%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $363,135
• List price: $384,900
• Delta: 5.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
613 Twin River Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,143 (+13%)	5mo	$412,000	$360	64
713 Tampa Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,090 (+8%)	7mo	$363,000	$333	63
315 Sea Bright Rd	0.34mi	3/1.0	942 (-6%)	13mo	$425,000	$451	62
1010 Waterview Way	0.57mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	6mo	$375,000	$391	60
4 Clubhouse Cir	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+3%)	8mo	$419,500	$403	59
809 Pensacola Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	900 (-11%)	3mo	$360,000	$400	58
625 Twin River Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	10mo	$260,000	$301	58
1015 Tampa Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	7mo	$350,000	$365	56
1010 Inland Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+7%)	8mo	$400,000	$370	54
114 Nantucket Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	13mo	$400,000	$417	54
205 Nantucket Rd	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,093 (+8%)	9mo	$400,000	$366	49
1024 Sarasota Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+14%)	12mo	$430,000	$373	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-52,725
• Equity at exit: $57,390

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-32,860
• Equity at exit: $33,279

Cash invested: $107,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08731

• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,902 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,018
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,952/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$819
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,715

Max offer price $384,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,225
• Closing costs: $11,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1404 Hilo Bay Dr Unit 1546204P Forked River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1345	$3,902	$2.90	7d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $384,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $384,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $384,900 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $384,900 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $384,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $384,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $384,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $384,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $384,900 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $384,900 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-05-09
    listed $384,900 Active 798-char remark
12. 2023-08-07
    soldstatus $282,000
13. 2023-08-03
    historical
14. 2023-06-23
    status Pending
15. 2023-06-22
    historical
16. 2023-06-19
    status Active
17. 2023-05-15
    historical Active/Under Contract
18. 2023-04-18
    status Active
19. 2023-04-06
    historical Active/Under Contract
20. 2023-03-23
    price $275,000
21. 2023-03-09
    price $279,500
22. 2023-02-14
    price $289,500
23. 2023-01-09
    listed $295,000 Active
24. 2022-06-12
    historical
25. 2022-03-09
    listed $240,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,952 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,768 · $564/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,816/yr (+$235/mo · 71.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 41% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,560
• − Property taxes: −$3,952
• − Insurance: −$7,043
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,746
• − Management: −$3,746
• − Depreciation: −$11,197
• Taxable loss: −$4,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,061
• After-tax cash flow: $2,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forked River, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 21,136

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.91%
• Current HPI: 352.355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+60.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $384,900 MOMLS
• 2023-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $282,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-03 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2023-06-23 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-06-22 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2023-06-19 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2023-05-15 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2023-04-18 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2023-04-06 Contingent — MOMLS
• 2023-03-23 Price Changed $275,000 MOMLS
• 2023-03-09 Price Changed $279,500 MOMLS
• 2023-02-14 Price Changed $289,500 MOMLS
• 2023-01-09 Listed $295,000 MOMLS
• 2022-06-12 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2022-03-09 Listed $240,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,952 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.