404 York Ave NW · Warren, OH 44485

$60,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1913 5,000 sqft lot $73/sqft · at area comps Est $63k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your ideas to York Ave! Located on a quiet street this home would make a great rental or owner-occupant. This home features two bedrooms, full basement and a two car garage. Schedule a private showing to see all this home has to offer!

Key facts

• Large garage
• New flooring
• Full basement

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• FULL BASEMENT
• LARGE GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Playground in community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; 820 above-grade finished area
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Corner lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Gas heating
• Interior features: Full, unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($783 rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 6.0% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#312 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime D-, commute F, employment F.
• Warren City (urban): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #599 of 656 in OH (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $683 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $19k; list at $60k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $58,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.17%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,915
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: -4.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1792 Front St SW	0.35mi	3/1.0	875 (+7%)	11mo	$80,000	$91	63
1236 Maxwell Ave NW	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-3%)	21mo	$82,500	$104	49
1432 Maxwell Ave NW	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-3%)	11mo	$100,000	$126	49
1181 Roberts Ave NW	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-12%)	10mo	$36,000	$50	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $10,407
• Equity at exit: $14,083

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.98×
• Total profit: $33,237
• Equity at exit: $14,450

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44485

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $783 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $461/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$164
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $479

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $257	+0% $240	+5% $223	+10% $206
Rent	-10% $179	-5% $209	+0% $240	+5% $271	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $271	-0.5pp $256	base $240	+0.5pp $225	+1.0pp $209

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
437 Nevada Ave NW Warren, OH	2.0	1.0	1016	$750	$0.74	14d	1	0.28mi
421 Southern Blvd NW Unit 207 Warren, OH	2.0	1.0	640	$800	$1.25	14d	1	0.84mi
425 Southern Blvd NW Unit 425 Warren, OH	2.0	1.0	640	$750	$1.17	14d	1	0.90mi
600 Commerce Ave NW Warren, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	14d	3	1.01mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $60,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $60,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $60,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $60,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $60,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $60,000 Active 691-char remark
18. 2024-09-24
    historical
19. 2024-05-03
    price $50,000
20. 2024-04-21
    listed $55,000 Active
21. 2023-07-14
    soldstatus $19,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Bring your ideas to York Ave! Located on a quiet street this home would make a great rental or owner-occupant. This home features two bedrooms, full basement and a two car garage. Schedule a private showing to see all this home has to offer!

22. 2023-07-06
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Bring your ideas to York Ave! Located on a quiet street this home would make a great rental or owner-occupant. This home features two bedrooms, full basement and a two car garage. Schedule a private showing to see all this home has to offer!

23. 2023-06-21
    listed $29,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Bring your ideas to York Ave! Located on a quiet street this home would make a great rental or owner-occupant. This home features two bedrooms, full basement and a two car garage. Schedule a private showing to see all this home has to offer!

24. 1989-09-13
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $698 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: +$238/yr (+$20/mo · 51.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$461
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$752
• − Management: −$752
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $2,024
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$486
• After-tax cash flow: $2,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren City
• NCES district ID: 3904499
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $28,222
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8299
• State rank: #599 of 656 in OH

Livability — Warren

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #5068

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, OH
• County: Trumbull · 193,293 people
• City population: 25,805
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren, OH
• Population (ZIP): 15,194
• Household income: $33,720
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 14.2

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 38% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.14%
• Current HPI: 212.5324
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+380.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $60,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-09-24 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $50,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-04-21 Listed $55,000 MLSNOW
• 2023-07-14 Sold (MLS) $19,000 MLSNOW
• 2023-07-06 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2023-06-21 Listed $29,900 MLSNOW
• 1989-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $461 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.