10654 Holgate St · Moon Lake, FL 34654

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2004 0.27 ac lot Est $135k · 32% over ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in ready! Great opportunity for some amazing Florida country living in this country retreat near Moon Lake with this meticulously maintained 2004 doublewide home. It's perfectly positioned on two spacious lots along a private street—offering privacy, flexibility, and room to truly live. With NO HOA, NO flood zone, and NO CDD fees, this rare property combines freedom, security, and lifestyle in one exceptional opportunity. Inside, the home features a bright split-bedroom floor plan with 2 bedrooms, 2 full baths, cathedral ceilings, ceiling fans, and laminate flooring throughout. The home comes fully furnished, making it truly move-in ready or ideal as a seasonal retreat. The larg

Key facts

• No cdd fees
• Private street
• No flood zone

Tags

• PRIVATE STREET
• NO HOA
• NO FLOOD ZONE
• NO CDD FEES
• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Located on a privately maintained gravel road; Lot size approximately 0.27 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• HOA & community: No HOA / association reported

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces west; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Rear porch; Private mailbox; Chain link, vinyl and wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Microwave; Range hood; Water filtration system; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Laundry room; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.4% in Moon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.72%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,360
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10537 Fran St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+8%)	8mo	$195,000	$188	69
10615 Lisle St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (0%)	6mo	$135,000	$141	65
10149 Huntley St	0.56mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	12mo	$135,000	$141	64
10533 Shalimar St	0.35mi	2/2.0	924 (-4%)	17mo	$92,000	$100	63
10542 Helena St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (-4%)	12mo	$93,000	$101	61
10710 Olsen St	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	901 (-6%)	15mo	$189,000	$210	58
12634 Coronado Way	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (-4%)	5mo	$99,000	$107	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,675
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-15,584
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34654

• Home prices YoY: -12.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $521/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,338

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13015 Midvale Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	5d	1	0.76mi
11550 Baywood Meadows Dr #7 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,495	$1.48	24d	1	1.10mi
12405 Shearwater Dr Unit 12405 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	3d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $179,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $179,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $179,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-05-02
   price $179,000
5. 2026-04-06
   price $195,000
6. 2026-02-26
   listed $200,000 Active
7. 2026-01-27
   historical
8. 2025-07-24
   price $219,000
9. 2025-06-27
   listed $229,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$965/yr (+$80/mo · 185.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$521
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$117
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$28
• After-tax cash flow: $2,896/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Moon Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #871
• US rank: #22850

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moon Lake, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,355
• Household income: $73,947
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 179.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.63%
• Current HPI: 294.4358
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-21.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $521 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.