3225 Blue Wood Dr · Vancleave, MS 39565

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2007 0.44 ac lot $191/sqft · at area comps Est $159k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• ARV discount +5.8/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 Bedroom and 1 Bath home! This cozy property features granite countertops in the kitchen, offering both style and durability. Fenced in back yard! From the front porch enjoy the views of the ponds located across the street on the neighboring property. With its cozy layout and location, this home offers both comfort and charm. This property would be a great family home or camp-style retreat! Located near Paige Bayou Marina convenient boating and deep-water access to the Gulf!!

Key facts

• Views of the ponds
• Fenced in back yard
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• VIEWS OF THE PONDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.9% in Vancleave — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#34 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $158,888
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 3.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-13,047
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $6,047
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39565

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,507 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $482/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,233

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $310	-5% $263	+0% $216	+5% $169	+10% $123
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $157	+0% $216	+5% $276	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $299	-0.5pp $258	base $216	+0.5pp $173	+1.0pp $130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
18. 2026-03-10
    listed $165,000 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Charming 3 Bedroom and 1 Bath home! This cozy property features granite countertops in the kitchen, offering both style and durability. Fenced in back yard! From the front porch enjoy the views of the ponds located across the street on the neighboring property. With its cozy layout and location, this home offers both comfort and charm. This property would be a great family home or camp-style retreat! Located near Paige Bayou Marina convenient boating and deep-water access to the Gulf!!

19. 2021-09-22
    historical
20. 2018-04-27
    soldstatus
21. 2018-01-30
    listed $49,900
22. 2017-10-28
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $482 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$822/yr (+$68/mo · 170.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$482
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,447
• − Management: −$1,447
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$39
• After-tax cash flow: $2,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — Vancleave

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #7039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vancleave, MS
• Population (ZIP): 20,692

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.68%
• Current HPI: 187.1025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+230.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $165,000 MLSU
• 2021-09-22 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2018-04-27 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-01-30 Listed $49,900 MLSU
• 2017-10-28 Listed $49,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $482 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.