978 Mary Ann · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$320,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2004 Fair condition 4,238 sqft lot Garage $307/sqft · 18% below area Est $392k · 18% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2/2 located in the heart of Crystal Beach. Open concept with spacious kitchen and dining area. Located right across from the Big Store, you can't get anymore centrally located than this home! Direct beach access to the subdivision means the Beach is just a short walk or golf cart ride away!

Key facts

• 4,238 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2004

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (56.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (56.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.0% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 881 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 7% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,053 (56.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.76%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $391,743
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -18.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2569 Palm Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,054 (+1%)	1mo	$307,000	$291	90
940 Mary Ann	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,088 (+4%)	1mo	$394,500	$363	86
935 Clara St	0.18mi	2/2.0	972 (-7%)	1mo	$265,000	$273	79
984 Crane Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+11%)	4mo	$314,900	$271	67
2577 Holiday Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+5%)	5mo	$499,000	$454	64
958 Mary Ann	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+15%)	13mo	$399,000	$333	56
965 Mary Lynn	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,036 (-1%)	10mo	$379,000	$366	55
970 Kenyln Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+6%)	10mo	$349,000	$316	55
2375 Sand Castle Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (-14%)	11mo	$315,000	$350	51
2709 Foster Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+10%)	0mo	$304,999	$265	50
2210 Ling	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,135 (+9%)	12mo	$299,900	$264	45
2599 Whitecap	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+15%)	16mo	$430,000	$358	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -41.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-116,680
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.05×
• Total profit: $-183,935
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,000 ($333/sqft)
• Median days on market: 104 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 881
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$345 /mo · $4,141/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-1,024

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,577

Max offer price $139,053

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-843	-5% $-934	+0% $-1,024	+5% $-1,115	+10% $-1,205
Rent	-10% $-1,204	-5% $-1,114	+0% $-1,024	+5% $-934	+10% $-844
Rate	-1.0pp $-863	-0.5pp $-943	base $-1,024	+0.5pp $-1,107	+1.0pp $-1,192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
948 Kahla Dr Unit 1223246P Crystal Beach, TX	2.0	2.0	1227	$2,280	$1.86	0d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2004
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.097 acresLot listed with 'Other' features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorAdditional bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 2 total roomsSeller disclosure provided

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   status $320,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   status $320,000 Pending 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $320,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $250,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $275,000 359-char remark
15. 2026-04-14
    listed $299,000 Active 359-char remark
16. 2026-01-01
    historical
17. 2025-07-31
    listed $299,000 Active
18. 2025-06-27
    historical
19. 2024-12-03
    listed $275,000 Active
20. 2024-11-29
    historical
21. 2024-09-25
    price $290,000
22. 2024-06-29
    price $300,000
23. 2024-05-16
    status Active
24. 2024-04-23
    price $325,000
25. 2024-04-23
    historical
26. 2024-01-13
    price $299,000
27. 2024-01-13
    status Active
28. 2024-01-03
    historical
29. 2023-11-29
    price $279,000
30. 2023-09-25
    price $299,000
31. 2023-09-11
    price $315,000
32. 2023-08-15
    listed $329,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,141 · $345/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,856 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,715/yr (+$143/mo · 41.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,141
• − Insurance: −$9,628
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
• − Management: −$2,189
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$18,020
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,325
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $26,100–$46,980 screening

This home requires moderate renovations, including a new roof and exterior updates, to significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of significant wear
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major fencing — Old and in need of repair

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New roof — Critical for structural integrity and value ↑
• Both New fencing — Improves property boundary and security ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oppe El B TX #291/4,322 Nat'l #5,891/41,679 Middle Central Middle F TX #1,445/1,662 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Ball H S F TX #1,085/1,632 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• County: Galveston · 390,640 people
• City population: 2,957
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,362
• Household income: $71,700
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2004
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.097 acresLot listed with 'Other' features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorAdditional bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 2 total roomsSeller disclosure provided

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-03 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-29 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-16 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-04-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-23 Price Changed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-13 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-13 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-01-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-29 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-25 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2023-09-11 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-15 Listed $329,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,141 · -25.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.