3 Packard St · Manchester, CT 06040

$429,900

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,310 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1969 7,405 sqft lot $186/sqft · at area comps Est $416k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! A ranch duplex! Each side contains 3 bedrooms, large living room with fireplace and hardwood floors!Partially finished basement with extra storage room for each side.Quiet street.Excellent owner occupant property.Motivated seller!

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchens
• Partially finished
• Large storage space

Tags

• RANCH STYLE BRICK BUILDING
• EAT-IN KITCHENS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACES
• FULL BASEMENTS
• PARTIALLY FINISHED
• LARGE STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area per public record: 2310

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected; Electric hot water; Oil fuel tank located in basement; Thermopane windows (energy-efficient)
• Home design: Two-family multi-family property
• Construction: Frame and brick construction; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Built on two stories
• Exterior features: Brick siding; Garden area; Corner, level lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Six total bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating (oil-fired); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Full, partially finished basement; Attic with hatch access; Four fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Laundry hook-ups in basement; All units have washer/dryer hook-ups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $180 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $416k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $416k (3.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#59 in CT, #3,580 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Manchester School District (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #130 of 153 in CT (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Keeney School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #361 of 553 statewide, top 68%, 327 students, 38% FRL); Illing Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #151 of 175 statewide, top 87%, 846 students, 58% FRL); Manchester High School (math 26% / reading 47%, grade F, #118 of 194 statewide, top 61%, 1,673 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,155/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 1839% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $430k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $415,500 (3.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,176
• List price: $429,900
• Delta: 3.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Chalmers St	0.07mi	6/3.0	2,250 (-3%)	6mo	$450,000	$200	84
32 Dudley St	0.39mi	6/3.0	2,250 (-3%)	7mo	$415,000	$184	68
66-68 Summer St	0.71mi	6/2.0	2,418 (+5%)	17mo	$352,152	$146	45
150 W Center St	0.69mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,621 (+14%)	10mo	$390,000	$149	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-62,345
• Equity at exit: $64,099

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-56,112
• Equity at exit: $37,170

Cash invested: $120,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06040

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 17.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,155 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax from tax record: −$669 /mo · $8,032/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$873
• Net cashflow: $180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,928

Max offer price $429,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $423	-5% $301	+0% $180	+5% $58	+10% $-64
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $15	+0% $180	+5% $344	+10% $508
Rate	-1.0pp $396	-0.5pp $289	base $180	+0.5pp $68	+1.0pp $-45

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$4,154
Total (2 units)			$4,155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,475
• Closing costs: $12,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $429,900 Active 849-char remark
2. 2011-05-26
   soldstatus $215,000 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Wow! A ranch duplex! Each side contains 3 bedrooms, large living room with fireplace and hardwood floors!Partially finished basement with extra storage room for each side.Quiet street.Excellent owner occupant property.Motivated seller!

3. 2011-05-26
   soldstatus $215,000

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Wow! A ranch duplex! Each side contains 3 bedrooms, large living room with fireplace and hardwood floors!Partially finished basement with extra storage room for each side.Quiet street.Excellent owner occupant property.Motivated seller!

4. 2011-01-11
   listed $219,900 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Wow! A ranch duplex! Each side contains 3 bedrooms, large living room with fireplace and hardwood floors!Partially finished basement with extra storage room for each side.Quiet street.Excellent owner occupant property.Motivated seller!

5. 2010-12-31
   historical
6. 2010-07-09
   listed $289,900
7. 2000-10-02
   soldstatus $146,000
8. 2000-09-28
   soldstatus $146,000
9. 2000-08-01
   listed $149,900
10. 1989-11-22
    soldstatus $182,000
11. 1989-11-22
    soldstatus $53,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,032 · $669/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,616 · $718/mo
• Expected delta: +$584/yr (+$49/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,081
• − Property taxes: −$8,032
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,989
• − Management: −$3,989
• − Depreciation: −$12,506
• Taxable loss: −$4,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,173
• After-tax cash flow: $3,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester School District
• NCES district ID: 0902310
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,391
• Composite: 24.54/100
• National rank: #7643
• State rank: #130 of 153 in CT

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #3580

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hartford County · 754,208 people
• City population: 59,635
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• Population (ZIP): 35,813
• Household income: $83,422
• Rent vs Own: 45.8% rent · 54.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1839.0

Population outlook (Capitol County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 1,063,519

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 15% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 14%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Capitol

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.9) · D 60.1% · R 38.2% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.69%
• Current HPI: 190.4204
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.97%
• Metro: Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+136.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $429,900 Smart MLS
• 2011-05-26 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2011-05-26 Sold (MLS) $215,000 Smart MLS
• 2011-01-11 Listed $219,900 Smart MLS
• 2010-12-31 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2010-07-09 Listed $289,900 Smart MLS
• 2000-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-28 Sold (MLS) $146,000 Smart MLS
• 2000-08-01 Listed $149,900 Smart MLS
• 1989-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 1989-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,032 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.