5139 Kilkenny Dr · Houston, TX 77048

$199,173

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1981 5,884 sqft lot Est $218k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

TOTAL REMODELED AND MOVE-IN READY HOME! FEATURES 4 BEDROOM (ONE CURRENTLY BEING USED AS A DEN), 2 RENOVATED BATHROOMS AN UPDATED KITCHEN W/ AMPLE CABINET SPACE INCLUDING APPLIANCES, A WORK/DESK AREA THAT OPENS TO THE DINING AND LIVING ROOM. RECENT LAMINATE WOOD FLOORS THRU-OUT THE HOME. HAS FOUR SIDE BRICK, SHUTTERS, A FRONT GATE, NEW WINDOWS & RECENT ROOF. THE HIGH CEILING WILL WELCOME YOU AS SOON AS YOU ENTER THIS BEAUTIFUL HOME. CONVENIENT COMMUTE TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON, THE MEDICAL CENTER, HOBBY AIRPORT, THE BELTWAY, SH 288, TSU & U of H. COME AND SEE THIS SPACIOUS & RELAXING BACK YARD W/ A COVERED PORCH, A ROSE GARDEN W/ PLENTY OF GREEN SPACE PERFECT FOR KIDS TO RUN AROUND OR FAMILY GATHERINGS. NO FLOODING HERE!!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Single-story home
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADWAYS
• RESIDENTIAL SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approx. 1,238 (building area total)
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Attached carport
• Security: No security features provided
• Utilities: Has heating and cooling; No specific water, sewer, or power provider listed
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Single-story (first-floor living)
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 1981; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Asphalt road access; Lot includes other features

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor, approx. 12x12); Bedroom (first floor, approx. 10x10); Bedroom (first floor, approx. 10x10); Bedroom (first floor, approx. 10x9)
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Tub shower
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-151/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Sterling H S (math 16% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 1,421 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $199k implies a 587% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,422 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,888
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12127 Redfern Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (+1%)	8mo	$234,900	$188	80
4726 Fairgreen Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,280 (+3%)	7mo	$220,000	$172	58
5227 Honeyvine Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (+14%)	2mo	$199,000	$141	58
4218 Richmeadow Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,388 (+12%)	0mo	$238,500	$172	54
4635 Kilkenny Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (+13%)	7mo	$222,500	$159	48
5206 Fairgreen Ln	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,418 (+14%)	6mo	$164,000	$116	45
11610 Roandale Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,336 (+8%)	6mo	$183,999	$138	43
4807 Tili And Gili St	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (+15%)	2mo	$249,990	$176	43
4821 Peanut Butter And Jelly Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (+15%)	4mo	$269,990	$190	41
12916 Ami And Tami Pl	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (+15%)	6mo	$249,990	$176	39
4817 Peanut Butter And Jelly Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (+15%)	6mo	$266,990	$188	39
4820 Tili And Gili St	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,423 (+15%)	10mo	$259,990	$183	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $15,906
• Equity at exit: $85,235

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $58,834
• Equity at exit: $128,091

Cash invested: $55,768 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,824 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,915/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,840

Max offer price $196,950

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $100	-5% $44	+0% $-13	+5% $-69	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-157	-5% $-85	+0% $-13	+5% $59	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $38	base $-13	+0.5pp $-64	+1.0pp $-117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,793
• Closing costs: $5,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	14d	1	0.39mi
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,499	$1.65	0d	13	0.53mi
11319 Murr Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.5	1213	$1,699	$1.40	19d	1	0.83mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,313	$1.13	11d	1	0.94mi
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	44d	35	0.94mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3187 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,319	$1.13	0d	1	0.94mi
5602 Selinsky Rd Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1167	$1,324	$1.13	11d	1	0.94mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	0d	27	0.94mi
4015 Marchant Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	44d	1	0.96mi
11819 Leitrim Way Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1476	$1,150	$0.78	6d	1	1.08mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	25d	1	1.10mi
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	8d	1	1.10mi
13442 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,195	$1.54	22d	1	1.13mi
4322 Groton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	858	$1,395	$1.63	44d	1	1.22mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,480	$1.13	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,173 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 605-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $199,173 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,915 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,915 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,157
• − Property taxes: −$3,915
• − Insurance: −$996
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,751
• − Management: −$1,751
• − Depreciation: −$5,794
• Taxable loss: −$3,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$834
• After-tax cash flow: $683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+586.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $199,173 HARMLS
• 2022-04-01 Price Changed $1,495 RENT.
• 2019-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-11-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2019-11-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-10-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-18 Price Changed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2019-10-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-10-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-10-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-09-11 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 1988-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $29,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,915 · +21.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.