25727 Captain Anchor Ln · Houston, TX 77493

$304,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,984 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Portofino Floor Plan - This new single-story home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. Three secondary bedrooms are secluded near the foyer, leading to an inviting open-concept layout with access to a covered patio for seamless indoor-outdoor living. Nestled into a private rear corner is a luxurious owner’s suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Private rear corner
• New construction
• Covered patio

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• SINGLE STORY
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIVATE REAR CORNER
• OWNER'S SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Alamo Management Group; Annual association fee of $375

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $304,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $343,232.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-404 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2696 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,000 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.05%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,232
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8314 Poseidon Cove Ln	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,908 (-4%)	2mo	$340,990	$179	85
25719 Sapphire Cove St	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,908 (-4%)	3mo	$329,990	$173	84
25743 Sapphire Cove St	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,908 (-4%)	4mo	$328,990	$172	84
8310 Poseidon Cove Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-5%)	2mo	$322,990	$172	78
25735 Sapphire Cove St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (-5%)	4mo	$327,990	$174	76
25711 Sapphire Cove St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-10%)	2mo	$311,990	$174	70
25723 Sapphire Cove St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-10%)	3mo	$307,990	$172	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-88,726
• Equity at exit: $51,177

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-138,839
• Equity at exit: $29,676

Cash invested: $96,105 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2696
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,800
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$429 /mo · $5,148/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,042

Max offer price $284,729

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-167	-5% $-286	+0% $-404	+5% $-523	+10% $-641
Rent	-10% $-604	-5% $-504	+0% $-404	+5% $-304	+10% $-204
Rate	-1.0pp $-231	-0.5pp $-317	base $-404	+0.5pp $-493	+1.0pp $-584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,808
• Closing costs: $10,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7410 Hillside Arbor Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2289	$2,400	$1.05	44d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 571-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $304,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,226
• − Property taxes: −$5,148
• − Insurance: −$1,716
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,429
• − Management: −$2,429
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$9,985
• Taxable loss: −$10,945
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,627
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,225/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story Lennar home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout with a stone exterior, light wood flooring, and neutral paint colors. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures improve the home's ambiance
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices increase convenience and property value
• Both Add smart thermostat — Energy-efficient heating and cooling systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modern lighting fixtures improve the home's ambiance ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices increase convenience and property value ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Energy-efficient heating and cooling systems improve comfort and reduce utility costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $304,990 HARMLS