1018 4th St · West Plains, MO 65775

$69,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 908 sqft · Other public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1962 9,583 sqft lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute two bedroom, two bath home on fenced in city lot in West Plains. The home has central HVAC and metal roof with a one car carport. This home will sell AS-IS requiring cash or conventional loan and will not qualify for any govt loans. This home is in a floodplain.

Key facts

• Central hvac
• Fenced in city lot
• Metal roof

Tags

• FENCED IN CITY LOT
• CENTRAL HVAC
• METAL ROOF
• ONE CAR CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-404 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $5k (93.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $62k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $5k (93.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.1% in West Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#34 in MO, #2,977 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, amenities D.
• West Plains R-VII (rural): math 36% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #152 of 324 in MO (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Plains Elem. (math 41% / reading 40%, grade F, #525 of 1,115 statewide, top 47%, 766 students, 66% FRL); West Plains Middle (math 33% / reading 39%, grade F, #237 of 391 statewide, top 61%, 611 students, 58% FRL); West Plains Sr. High (math 27% / reading 65%, grade D-, #170 of 521 statewide, top 33%, 1,162 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $4,823 (93.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 93% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -71.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.90×
• Total profit: $-36,667
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.31×
• Total profit: $-64,002
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65775

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $565/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$131
• Net cashflow: $-404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $4,823

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-365	-5% $-385	+0% $-404	+5% $-424	+10% $-443
Rent	-10% $-454	-5% $-429	+0% $-404	+5% $-380	+10% $-355
Rate	-1.0pp $-370	-0.5pp $-387	base $-404	+0.5pp $-422	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
W Main St West Plains, MO	2.0	1.5	960	$625	$0.65	46d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   price $69,000
3. 2025-12-16
   price $89,900
4. 2025-12-11
   listed $99,000 Active
5. 2025-06-13
   soldstatus
6. 2010-12-03
   soldstatus
7. 1995-03-10
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $565 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $669 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$104/yr (+$9/mo · 18.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $7,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$565
• − Insurance: −$5,870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$600
• − Management: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable loss: −$6,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,442
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Plains R-VII
• NCES district ID: 2931680
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $32,206
• Composite: 33.59/100
• National rank: #5419
• State rank: #152 of 324 in MO

Livability — West Plains

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #2977

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Plains, MO
• Population (ZIP): 24,950

Population outlook (Howell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,462 people
• By 2030: 37,240 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 34,495 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 31,450 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 23,660 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 16,373 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Howell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.2% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -30.8pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+43.8 2008: R+30.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.99%
• Current HPI: 228.8763
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-30.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $69,000 SOMO
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $89,900 SOMO
• 2025-12-11 Listed $99,000 SOMO
• 2025-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $565 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.