17728 W Illini St · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$484,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,530 sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 6,596 sqft lot $120/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Each of the five bedrooms in this thoughtfully designed floorplan includes a spacious walk-in closet. White cabinets and backsplash, with wood look flooring and primary bath wall tile in the Divine package.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• 3-car tandem garage
• White cabinets

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• 3-CAR TANDEM GARAGE
• WHITE CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WOOD-LOOK TILE FLOORING
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT FEATURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by Meritage Homes of Arizona, Inc.
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $120 covering grounds maintenance; Association restricts visible trucks, trailers, RVs, and boats; Community playground; Biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; Tandem garage with direct access and garage door opener; 3-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Under construction
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Spray foam insulation; Low VOC paint; Ducts professionally air-sealed; Tile/concrete roof; Home warranty included; New construction
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Sprinklers in front with auto timer; Desert front landscaping; Dirt back yard; Gravel/stone front

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Walk-in pantry; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: ENERGY STAR qualified heating (electric); Has heating; Has cooling; ENERGY STAR qualified cooling equipment; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Smart home features; Double vanity in bath; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; 9+ flat ceilings; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Primary bedroom with full bath; Separate shower and tub; Low-E dual-pane vinyl windows; ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Fresh air mechanical ventilation; ENERGY STAR light fixtures; Multi-zone HVAC; Low-flow plumbing fixtures; Tankless hot water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $485k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $318k (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (39.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (39.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Edge High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 1,991 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1088 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $293,245 (39.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.21%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-160,629
• Equity at exit: $72,314

10-year hold

• IRR: -80.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.97×
• Total profit: $-267,331
• Equity at exit: $41,933

Cash invested: $135,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1088
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$606 /mo · $7,275/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$616
• Net cashflow: $-1,155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,395

Max offer price $317,857

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,248
• Closing costs: $14,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3422 S 176th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2647	$3,350	$1.27	1d	1	0.26mi
17954 W Raymond St Goodyear, AZ	5.0	3.0	3466	$2,950	$0.85	2d	1	0.31mi
3150 S 180th Ln Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2083	$2,300	$1.10	44d	1	0.62mi
18233 W Pueblo Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,300	$1.10	1d	1	0.76mi
4119 S 186th Ave Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2977	$2,350	$0.79	44d	1	1.07mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	2d	1	1.29mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	5d	1	1.29mi
1613 S 174th Ln Goodyear, AZ	5.0	3.0	2999	$2,999	$1.00	1d	1	1.41mi
2506 S 186th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	3100	$30,000	$9.68	1d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $484,990 Pending 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $484,990 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $484,990 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $484,990 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $484,990 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $484,990 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-04-24
   listed $484,990 Active
8. 2026-04-22
   listed $484,990 Active 206-char remark

   Show marketing remark (206 chars)

   Each of the five bedrooms in this thoughtfully designed floorplan includes a spacious walk-in closet. White cabinets and backsplash, with wood look flooring and primary bath wall tile in the Divine package.

9. 2024-06-11
   soldstatus $9,487,499
10. 2024-06-11
    soldstatus $12,589,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,167
• − Property taxes: −$7,275
• − Insurance: −$2,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,815
• − Management: −$2,815
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$14,109
• Taxable loss: −$22,856
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,486
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Agua Fria Union High School District (4289)
• NCES district ID: 0400450
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $64,107
• Composite: 27.92/100
• National rank: #6865
• State rank: #99 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-94.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $484,990 ARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $484,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $12,589,500 Public Records
• 2024-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $9,487,499 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $233 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.