513 Valley St · Lewistown, PA 17044

$79,000

9 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,400 sqft · MultiFamily

Built 1950 Fair condition 9,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

3houses 1price. 3beds and 1 bath in each home. Large lot with available parking in back of homes. Needs work. Great investment property.

Key facts

• 9,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Multi-family property
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 9,500 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 9-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $79k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $79k).
• Cap rate 39.6% vs local median 5.0% in Lewistown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,057 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Mifflin County SD (town): math 28% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #380 of 539 in PA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Mifflin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mifflin County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $79k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 118.80%
• DSCR: 6.29
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $126,722
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.12×
• Total profit: $290,150
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17044

• Home prices YoY: -6.7%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,463 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$727
• Net cashflow: $2,190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $691

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 32%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	1	$3,462
Total (3 units)			$3,463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 136-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $79,000 Under Contract

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,324
• − Management: −$3,324
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $26,604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,385
• After-tax cash flow: $19,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This multi-family property requires significant repairs and updates to its roof, siding, flooring, and HVAC, as well as routine maintenance. Improvements in these areas would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of wear and discoloration suggest significant damage.
• Major siding — The siding is old and in poor condition.
• Major flooring — The flooring is old and in need of replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — The walls and paint show significant wear and discoloration.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — The units appear old and may need replacement or repair.
• Minor landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and could benefit from trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both siding replacement — New siding would improve the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would enhance curb appeal and value.
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of wear and discoloration suggest significant damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · The siding is old and in poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring is old and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The walls and paint show significant wear and discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · The units appear old and may need replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and could benefit from trimming and maintenance.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$75,500–253,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both siding replacement — New siding would improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape would enhance curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mifflin County SD
• NCES district ID: 4215290
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $40,718
• Composite: 32.28/100
• National rank: #5755
• State rank: #380 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lewistown

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1057
• US rank: #11920

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lewistown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 20,526

Population outlook (Mifflin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,611 people
• By 2030: 43,212 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 40,197 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 36,813 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 28,833 · -35.4%
• By 2100: 20,296 · -54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mifflin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.4) · D 21.4% · R 77.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -56.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.4 2020: R+56.1 2016: R+57.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.27%
• Current HPI: 214.2729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+43.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-06-04 Listed $79,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2006-07-14 Sold (MLS) $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-10-07 Listed $54,900 BRIGHT MLS